Major League SoccerFull time
Predictions gradedPre-match view
Back New York City or Draw at 1.38—our model gives it a 78% chance, a +6 point edge over the implied 72%.
Avoid Over 2.5 goals and BTTS Yes, as both are priced above our estimates. Monitor Philadelphia's lineup after their August 13 Leagues Cup match, as rotation could further boost NYCFC's chances.
Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.
Positive edges · 2
New York CityMarket 47.6% · BetBugs 48%
NYCFC's strong home form and Philadelphia's poor away record, combined with recent H2H success, give the home side a clear edge.
Market 72.5% · BetBugs 78%
Philadelphia's away struggles make a home win or draw highly likely for NYCFC.
Other edges · 3
The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.
BetBugs 75% · Market 82%
Both teams' first-half scoring and conceding patterns suggest at least one goal before the break, but the odds are already heavily skewed toward Over 0.5.
How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.
High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.
Implied 35% leaves no cushion vs our 30% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF-GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | New York City Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals) | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 31-24 | 26 |
| 13 |  Philadelphia Union | 18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 25-33 | 16 |