Girona1Leganes1

HT 0–0Sun 16 Aug 2026, 17:00 Predictions graded

Predictions4–640%

Edges3–260%

PossPossession 69%–31%ShotsShots 27–5On targetOn target 7–3CornersCorners 9–0

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Aug 2026, 00:12 · Europe/Bucharest

Girona are heavily favoured by the market (1.60) but our model sees only a 42% win probability, making the home win and double chance poor value.

The only positive edge is Both Teams to Score – Yes at 2.05, with a 55% estimated probability versus 48.8% implied. Both sides have defensive uncertainty and unfinished squads, so expect an open but unpredictable opener.

Context

Albés was unveiled as Leganés head coach in July, making this his first competitive match.
- On 7 August he said the squad needs three to five more signings, specifically a centre-back.
- Squad construction was unfinished a week before the opener.
Reporting ahead of the 16 August opener said Girona still had incoming/outgoing registration work.
- The back line is unlikely to be repeated from pre-season.
- Defensive recruitment remains a live issue.
Girona won only one of their pre-season friendlies.
- They drew 1-1 with Gimnastic and 2-2 with Sabadell in their final two friendlies.
- They lost 4-1 to Arsenal and 1-0 to Alaves.
Girona won 4-3 at home in November 2024.
- The teams drew 1-1 in April 2025.
- Leganés won 2-0 in Segunda in February 2021.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Girona

1.60fair 2.38

BetBugs 42% · Market 62.5%

0.0ppshort

Girona's home advantage and slightly better attacking output, combined with Leganes' integration risk, give them a moderate edge.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Girona or Draw

1.15fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 87%

−19.0ppshort

Girona's home resilience and Leganes' away struggles make a home win or draw likely.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Girona's home advantage and slightly better attacking output, combined with Leganes' integration risk, give them a moderate edge.
- Girona averaged 1.2 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over last 15 matches, with 53.4% possession.
- Leganes averaged 0.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, with 49.4% possession.
- Girona won 4-3 at home in the most recent H2H (Nov 2024).
- Leganes have a new coach and unfinished squad, with 3-5 signings still needed.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostGironaEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Girona's home resilience and Leganes' away struggles make a home win or draw likely.
- Girona drew 5 of their last 15 matches, including 3 home draws.
- Leganes lost 6 of their last 15, with 4 away losses.
- H2H last 5: 2 Girona wins, 2 draws, 1 Leganes win.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonGirona or DrawEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Early-season caution and balanced first-half stats suggest a level score at the break.
- Girona drew at half-time in 33% of matches (5 of 15).
- Leganes drew at half-time in 40% of matches (6 of 15).
- Both teams have similar first-half scoring rates.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A full-time draw is plausible given both teams' inconsistency, but the probability is low.
- Girona drew 5 of 15 matches overall.
- Leganes drew 4 of 15 matches overall.
- H2H last 5 included 2 draws.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/DrawEstimated chance18%

Goals1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have defensive vulnerabilities, but Leganes' low scoring output tempers the over probability.
- Girona's matches averaged 2.7 total goals (1.2 for, 1.5 against).
- Leganes' matches averaged 2.2 total goals (0.8 for, 1.4 against).
- Last H2H at Girona produced 7 goals (4-3).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance48%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both attacks have shown ability to score, and defensive uncertainties on both sides support BTTS.
- Girona scored in 11 of last 15 matches.
- Leganes scored in 8 of last 15 matches.
- Both teams scored in the last two H2H meetings (4-3 and 1-1).
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
First-half goals are common in Girona matches, with a combined average of 1.1 first-half goals.
- Girona averaged 0.5 first-half goals scored and 0.6 conceded.
- Leganes averaged 0.3 first-half goals scored and 0.5 conceded.
- Girona led at half-time in 27% of matches, trailed in 40%.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second halves may open up as fatigue and tactical adjustments occur, but overall scoring rates are moderate.
- Girona's second-half goal difference is slightly positive (0.7 scored vs 0.9 conceded).
- Leganes' second-half goal difference is negative (0.5 scored vs 0.9 conceded).
- Both teams tend to concede more in the second half.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance45%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a moderate number of corners, and the total line is close to their combined average.
- Girona averaged 4.6 corners for and 4.6 against (total 9.2).
- Leganes averaged 5.0 corners for and 5.0 against (total 10.0).
- Combined average corners in their matches: 9.6.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Leganes' high card count and competitive early-season intensity should push total cards over 4.5.
- Girona averaged 1.9 yellow cards per match.
- Leganes averaged 3.1 yellow cards per match.
- Combined average yellow cards: 5.0.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance58%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 62.5% leaves no cushion vs our 42% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

Girona has matched Over 4.5 cards in 3 of 5 recent projections

Girona's Over 4.5 cards projections have been fulfilled in 3 of 5 recent matches. The average estimated probability was 59.4%, with an expected 3 fulfilled predictions, aligning with the actual count. Notably, all three fulfilled predictions occurred at home, while both away matches missed.

Recent evidence for Girona5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

23 May·La Liga