Major League SoccerFull time

Predictions graded

Colorado Rapids2Sporting Kansas City0

HT 0–0Sun 16 Aug 2026, 01:30 Predictions graded

Predictions4–544%

Edges4–267%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Aug 2026, 07:49 · Europe/Bucharest

Colorado's strong home form and Sporting KC's dreadful away defense make a home win and over 2.5 goals the most probable outcomes.

However, the home win odds offer no value; instead, target Over 1.5 Colorado goals or 'No' on an away clean sheet for higher-confidence plays. Avoid the -2 handicap and Both Teams to Score, where the market is efficiently priced.

Context

29 goals conceded in 9 away matches (3.22 per game).
- Conceded 2+ goals in 8 of those 9 matches.
- Zero away clean sheets all season.
17 goals scored in 8 home matches (2.13 per game).
- Scored 2+ goals in 6 of 8 home matches.
- Put 4 past Sporting KC in the last meeting (away).
Last 5 H2H: all over 2.5 goals, average 4.4 goals.
- Colorado won 4-1 away in March 2026.
- Both teams scored in 4 of those 5 matches.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 6

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Colorado Rapids

1.47fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 68%

0.0ppshort

Colorado's strong home record (5 wins in 8) contrasts sharply with Sporting KC's dreadful away form (2 wins, 29 goals conceded in 9), and the most recent H2H was a dominant Colorado win.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Colorado Rapids or Draw

1.15fair 1.25

BetBugs 80% · Market 87%

−7.0ppshort

Sporting KC's abysmal away defense and Colorado's solid home scoring make a home win or draw highly likely, as Sporting KC rarely gets results on the road.

Team to ScorewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Colorado Rapids to score

1.09fair 1.18

BetBugs 85% · Market 91.7%

0.0ppshort

Sporting KC has conceded in all 9 away matches this season, and Colorado has scored in 7 of 8 home games.

Total Goals HomewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 1.5

1.43fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 69.9%

0.0ppshort

Colorado averages 2.13 goals per home game and Sporting KC concedes 2+ in 8 of 9 away matches.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Colorado's strong home form (5 wins in 8) contrasts sharply with Sporting KC's dreadful away record (2 wins, 29 goals conceded in 9), and the most recent H2H was a dominant Colorado win, giving them a clear edge.
- Colorado home record: 5-0-3 (W-D-L), 17 goals scored, 9 conceded in 8 matches.
- Sporting KC away record: 2-0-7, 7 goals scored, 29 conceded in 9 matches.
- Last 5 H2H: Colorado won 2, Sporting KC won 3, but Colorado won the most recent 4-1 away.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonColorado RapidsEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sporting KC's abysmal away defense and Colorado's solid home scoring make a home win or draw highly likely, as Sporting KC rarely gets results on the road.
- Colorado home: 5 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses; Sporting KC away: 2 wins, 0 draws, 7 losses.
- Sporting KC away goals conceded: 29 in 9 matches (3.22 per game).
- Colorado home goals scored: 17 in 8 matches (2.13 per game).
BetBugs · Double ChancewonColorado Rapids or DrawEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Sporting KC's tendency to trail at halftime on the road gives Colorado a slight edge, but Colorado's own first-half record is not dominant, so confidence is low.
- Colorado home: led at halftime in 33% of matches (league average).
- Sporting KC away: trailed at halftime in 60% of matches.
- Sporting KC away first-half goals conceded: 1.5 per game.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostColorado RapidsEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While Sporting KC often trails at halftime and loses, Colorado's own first-half dominance is inconsistent, making a HT/FT double a low-probability but plausible outcome.
- Colorado home: won 5 of 8, but only led at halftime in 33% of matches.
- Sporting KC away: lost 7 of 9, trailed at halftime in 60%.
- Sporting KC away second-half goal difference: -1.3 per game (estimated from totals).
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostColorado Rapids/Colorado RapidsEstimated chance35%

Goals2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The H2H trend of high-scoring games combined with Sporting KC's leaky away defense and Colorado's decent home attack points strongly to over 2.5 goals.
- Last 5 H2H: all had over 2.5 goals, averaging 4.4 goals per game.
- Sporting KC away matches: 29 goals conceded in 9 games (3.22 per game).
- Colorado home matches: 17 goals scored in 8 games (2.13 per game).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have found the net in most recent H2H meetings, and while Sporting KC struggles defensively, they often manage a goal even in defeats, making BTTS likely.
- Last 5 H2H: both teams scored in 4 of 5 matches.
- Colorado home: scored in 7 of 8 matches; conceded in 5 of 8.
- Sporting KC away: scored in 5 of 9 matches; conceded in all 9.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Colorado consistently scores multiple goals at home, and Sporting KC's away defense is among the worst in the league, making over 1.5 home goals a strong bet.
- Colorado home: 17 goals in 8 matches (2.13 per game), scored 2+ in 6 of 8.
- Sporting KC away: conceded 2+ in 8 of 9 matches.
- Last H2H: Colorado scored 4 goals away vs Sporting KC.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonColorado Rapids over 1.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sporting KC has not kept a single away clean sheet this season, and Colorado rarely fails to score at home, making an away clean sheet extremely unlikely.
- Sporting KC away: conceded in all 9 matches, 29 goals total.
- Colorado home: scored in 7 of 8 matches.
- Sporting KC away clean sheets: 0 in 9 matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonColorado Rapids to scoreEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sporting KC often concedes early on the road, and Colorado tends to score in the first half at home, making over 0.5 first-half goals very probable.
- Colorado home first-half goals: 0.7 per game average; conceded 0.5.
- Sporting KC away first-half goals conceded: 1.5 per game average.
- Last 5 H2H: first-half goals in 4 of 5 matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined corner averages suggest around 8-9 corners, and the H2H has seen some high totals, but the data is inconsistent, so over 8.5 is a marginal call.
- Colorado home corners: 5.0 per game average; opponent corners: 3.0.
- Sporting KC away corners: 3.6 per game average; opponent corners: 5.0.
- Last 5 H2H: corner counts of 11, 6, 5, 7, 4 (average 6.6, but high variance).
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Card averages are near the 4.5 line, and H2H history shows occasional high-card games, but neither team is exceptionally ill-disciplined, so over 4.5 is a slight lean.
- Colorado home yellow cards: 2.8 per game; opponent: 2.5.
- Sporting KC away yellow cards: 1.7 per game; opponent: 1.8.
- Last 5 H2H: total cards of 4, 5, 3, 3, 6 (average 4.2).
BetBugs · Cards Over/Undernot gradableOver 4.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 20% is close to our estimate of ~20%; no value edge and high risk given Sporting KC's away form.

Head-to-Head

2W · 0D · 3W

W1-4Sporting Kansas CityvColorado RapidsMar 22, 2026MAJ

L4-2Sporting Kansas CityvColorado RapidsAug 31, 2025MAJ

L1-2Colorado RapidsvSporting Kansas CityJul 5, 2025MAJ

L4-1Sporting Kansas CityvColorado RapidsSep 19, 2024MAJ

W2-1Colorado RapidsvSporting Kansas CityJul 5, 2024MAJ

4.4 goals/game avg

League Table

Major League Soccer 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
11	Colorado Rapids	18	7	1	10	27-25	22	WLWLL
15	Sporting Kansas City	18	4	2	12	18-46	14	LLWLL

8pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Colorado Rapids

W1-0AustinAug 2MAJ

L0-1St. Louis CityJul 26MAJ

W1-0San DiegoJul 23MAJ

D1-1FC JuarezJul 10FRI

L1-2FC DallasMay 24MAJ

W2-0San Jose EarthquakesMay 21US

L1-2Real Salt LakeMay 17MAJ

W1-0Minnesota United FCMay 14MAJ

L0-1St. Louis CityMay 10MAJ

L0-1Houston DynamoMay 3MAJ

L1-3Vancouver WhitecapsApr 26MAJ

D0-0Los Angeles FCApr 23MAJ

L2-3Inter MiamiApr 18MAJ

W1-0Union OmahaApr 15US

W6-2Houston DynamoApr 12MAJ

Sporting Kansas City

L0-2Houston DynamoAug 2MAJ

L0-4Los Angeles FCJul 26MAJ

W2-1Minnesota United FCJul 23MAJ

L2-3St. Louis CityJul 17MAJ

L1-2New York Red BullsMay 24MAJ

W2-1AustinMay 17MAJ

W3-1Los Angeles GalaxyMay 14MAJ

L0-6Portland TimbersMay 10MAJ

D1-1Seattle SoundersMay 2MAJ

L0-5Chicago FireApr 26MAJ

L0-3Vancouver WhitecapsApr 18MAJ

L0-3Colorado SpringsApr 15US

L1-3San Jose EarthquakesApr 12MAJ

L1-3Real Salt LakeApr 4MAJ

L1-4Colorado RapidsMar 22MAJ

Squad & Injuries

Colorado Rapids

33 available

Attackers8

Midfielders10

Defenders11

Goalkeeper4

Sporting Kansas City

30 available

Attackers4

Midfielders9

Defenders13

Goalkeeper4

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Colorado Rapids

Colorado Rapids or Draw

Colorado Rapids to score

Over 1.5

Over 2.5

Over 0.5

Result2 of 4 landed

Goals2 of 5 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Markets to Avoid

Sporting Kansas City

Yes

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Colorado Rapids

Sporting Kansas City

Squad & Injuries

Colorado Rapids

Sporting Kansas City