Primera NacionalFull time

Predictions graded

CA Temperley3CA Los Andes0

HT 1–0Sun 16 Aug 2026, 21:00 Predictions graded

Predictions4–450%

Edges4–357%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Aug 2026, 18:05 · Europe/Bucharest

Expect a tight, low-scoring derby with Temperley holding a slight home edge, but the market has already priced in defensive outcomes heavily — Under 2.5 goals, BTTS No, and first-half Under 1.5 all show negative value.

No clear betting edge exists on the main markets; avoid the short odds and consider live betting if the match opens up.

Context

The historical fixture log lists this as the 100th recorded encounter.
- Derby matches often feature more cautious play and fewer clear chances.
2026: Los Andes 0-1 Temperley
- 2019: Los Andes 1-0 Temperley
- 2014: Temperley 0-1 Los Andes
Los Andes away record: 4W-3D-3L, 10 goals scored, 5 conceded in 10 away matches.
- Clean sheet rate away: 50%.
Temperley home record: 6W-3D-2L, 17 goals scored, 14 conceded.
- Home win rate: 55%.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 7

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

CA Temperley

2.10fair 2.38

BetBugs 42% · Market 47.6%

0.0ppshort

Temperley's home form is strong but the market price already reflects that, leaving no value on the home win.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

CA Temperley or Draw

1.22fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 82%

−10.0ppshort

The double chance is heavily juiced and offers no value despite Temperley's strong home unbeaten record.

1 St Half ResultlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Draw

1.78fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 56.2%

0.0ppshort

The half-time draw is priced close to our estimate, offering no edge.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Under 2.5

1.30fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 76.9%

0.0ppshort

Derby intensity and strong defensive records on both sides point to a tight, low-scoring affair.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean

No

1.48fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 67.6%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have shown defensive solidity, and the derby context often leads to cautious play.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Under 1.5

1.17fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 85.5%

0.0ppshort

Both teams tend to start slowly, with low first-half scoring averages and a history of tight first halves in this fixture.

2 Nd Half Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Lean

Under 1.5

1.30fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 76.9%

0.0ppshort

Second-half scoring is also modest for both teams, supporting a low total.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Temperley's stronger home form and recent H2H win give them a slight edge, but Los Andes' solid away defense keeps this close.
- Temperley home record: 6W-3D-2L, 17 goals scored, 14 conceded in 11 home matches
- Los Andes away record: 4W-3D-3L, 10 goals scored, 5 conceded in 10 away matches
- Temperley won the most recent H2H 1-0 away in March 2026
- Temperley form last 5: LLWWD; Los Andes form last 5: LLDWL
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonCA TemperleyEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Temperley are hard to beat at home, and Los Andes' away form is not dominant, making the double chance a solid option.
- Temperley home unbeaten rate: 9/11 (82%)
- Los Andes away win rate: 40%
- Temperley have lost only 2 home matches all season
BetBugs · Double ChancewonCA Temperley or DrawEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high draw rates at half-time, and the derby atmosphere may lead to a cautious opening.
- Temperley leading at half-time in 53% of matches, trailing 13%
- Los Andes leading at half-time in 27%, trailing 27%
- H2H last 3 meetings: 2 draws at half-time
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw is a plausible outcome given the balanced nature of the fixture, but confidence is low due to the unpredictability of derbies.
- Temperley home draw rate: 27%
- Los Andes away draw rate: 30%
- H2H last 5 meetings: 2 draws
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/DrawEstimated chance22%

Goals2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Derby intensity and strong defensive records on both sides point to a tight, low-scoring affair.
- Temperley home matches average 2.82 total goals, but recent H2H meetings have been low-scoring
- Los Andes away matches average 1.5 total goals
- Last 3 decisive H2H meetings all ended 1-0
- Los Andes have kept 5 clean sheets in 10 away games
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown defensive solidity, and the derby context often leads to cautious play.
- Los Andes away clean sheet rate: 50%
- Temperley failed to score in 2 of last 5 home matches
- H2H last 3 meetings: both teams scored in only 1 of 3
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to start slowly, with low first-half scoring averages and a history of tight first halves in this fixture.
- Temperley first-half goals per match: 0.7, conceded 0.5
- Los Andes first-half goals per match: 0.4, conceded 0.3
- H2H recent meetings have been goalless at half-time in 2 of last 3
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring is also modest for both teams, supporting a low total.
- Temperley second-half goals per match: 0.4 (1.1 total - 0.7 first half)
- Los Andes second-half goals per match: 0.5 (0.9 total - 0.4 first half)
- Combined second-half average: 0.9 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostUnder 1.5Estimated chance62%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Without concrete corner stats, this is a speculative lean based on typical derby dynamics.
- Corner data unavailable for both teams in recent matches
- Derby matches often feature fewer corners due to midfield battles
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Derby matches often produce more cards, but lack of data makes this a low-confidence prediction.
- Derby context (Clásico de Lomas) increases emotional intensity
- No card data available for recent matches
BetBugs · Cards Over/Undernot gradableOver 4.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 47.6% vs our 42% estimate leaves no cushion; the price already reflects the home edge.

Prediction history

CA Temperley has been moderately reliable when projected to win

CA Temperley has fulfilled 2 of 4 win predictions, with an average estimated probability of 43.8% and an expected fulfilment of 1.8. Both missed predictions ended in draws, and all three home matches resulted in wins, while the single away match was a draw. The current probability of 42% is within the historical range of 40-45%.

Recent evidence for CA Temperley4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

18 Jul·Primera Nacional

CA Temperley2-0

Atletico Rafaela

BetBugsCA Temperley to win·45%

Matched

18 Jul 2026

Primera Nacional

CA Temperley2-0

Atletico Rafaela

CA Temperley to win

45%probability

CA Temperley won

Matched

12 Jul·Primera Nacional

Agropecuario Argentino0-0

CA Temperley

BetBugsCA Temperley to win·45%

Missed

12 Jul 2026

Primera Nacional

Agropecuario Argentino0-0

CA Temperley

CA Temperley to win

45%probability

Draw

Missed

20 Jun·Primera Nacional

CA Temperley1-1

San Martin de Tucuman

BetBugsCA Temperley to win·45%

Missed

20 Jun 2026

Primera Nacional

CA Temperley1-1

San Martin de Tucuman

CA Temperley to win

45%probability

Draw

Missed

14 Jun·Primera Nacional

CA Temperley4-1

CA Guemes

BetBugsCA Temperley to win·40%

Matched

14 Jun 2026

Primera Nacional

CA Temperley4-1

CA Guemes

CA Temperley to win

40%probability

CA Temperley won

Matched

Head-to-Head

2W · 2D · 1W

W0-1Los AndesvTemperleyMar 29, 2026PRI

L1-0Los AndesvTemperleyMar 30, 2019PRI

W0-1TemperleyvLos AndesApr 18, 2014PRI

D1-1Los AndesvTemperleyOct 21, 2013PRI

D0-0Los AndesvTemperleyApr 16, 2013PRI

CA Temperley: 3 clean sheetsCA Los Andes: 2 clean sheets1 goals/game avg

League Table

Primera Nacional 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
6	CA Temperley Promotion - Primera Nacional (Promotion - Play Offs)	24	9	10	5	24-21	37	LLWWD
8	CA Los Andes Promotion - Primera Nacional (Promotion - Play Offs)	23	8	9	6	20-11	33	LLDWL