BundesligaFull time

Predictions graded

Sturm Graz1Altach0

HT 0–0Sat 15 Aug 2026, 17:30 Predictions graded

Predictions7–558%

Edges4–267%

PossPossession 53%–47%ShotsShots 17–9On targetOn target 2–4CornersCorners 12–7

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Aug 2026, 17:19 · Europe/Bucharest

Sturm Graz's dominant H2H record and Altach's coach-acknowledged late-game fatigue make a home win the top play at 1.65 (11-point edge).

The Over 2.5 goals at 1.80 also offers value, with Sturm Graz's second-half strength likely to punish a tiring Altach side.

Context

On 7 August, Ingolitsch stated the new style adds about 10km of running per match.
- He directly connected late concessions to the added load and a mental block after setbacks.
- Altach conceded 4 second-half goals vs Wolfsberger AC and lost the second half in 2 of their last 3 competitive matches.
Last three Bundesliga H2H: Sturm Graz 2-0 Altach (Mar 2026), Altach 0-2 Sturm Graz (Oct 2025), Sturm Graz 2-1 Altach (Aug 2024).
- Altach scored only once across those three matches.
- Sturm Graz have won 20 of the 32 all-time league meetings, with only 4 Altach wins.
Altach's only away game this season: 0-1 loss at Rapid Vienna, with 0 goals scored.
- In their last 3 competitive away matches, Altach failed to score in 2 (0-1 vs Rapid Vienna, 0-3 vs FC BW Linz).
- Sturm Graz kept clean sheets in 3 of their last 5 competitive matches, including both Bundesliga games this season.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sturm Graz's dominant H2H record and superior form, combined with Altach's away struggles and coach-acknowledged fatigue issues, make a home win highly likely.
- Sturm Graz won last 3 Bundesliga H2H meetings, all by 2+ goal margins (2-0, 2-0, 2-1).
- Sturm Graz form: unbeaten in last 5 competitive matches (4W 1D), scoring 2.5 goals/game over last 15.
- Altach away record this season: 0-0-1, 0 goals scored, 1 conceded; lost 1-0 at Rapid Vienna.
- Altach coach admitted late-game physical/mental issues due to new high-running style (10km extra per match).
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonSturm GrazEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Sturm Graz's tendency to start strong at home and Altach's occasional first-half lapses give a slight edge, but evidence is not overwhelming.
- Sturm Graz led at half-time in 40% of last 15 matches; Altach trailed at half-time in 27%.
- Sturm Graz first-half goals average: 0.9; Altach first-half goals conceded average: 0.6.
- Last 5 competitive matches: Sturm Graz led at HT in 2 (vs Seekirchen, vs Heart of Midlothian), drew 3.
- Altach trailed at HT in 2 of last 5 competitive matches (vs Rapid Vienna, vs Heidenheim).
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostSturm GrazEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Sturm Graz's superior fitness and Altach's documented late-game issues make a home second-half win probable.
- Sturm Graz won the second half in 3 of last 5 competitive matches (vs Hartberg, Heart of Midlothian, Rapid Vienna).
- Altach lost the second half in 2 of last 3 competitive matches (vs Rapid Vienna, Wolfsberger AC).
- Altach coach admitted late-game struggles due to physical load and mental hurdles.
- Sturm Graz second-half goal difference: +1.2 per game over last 15; Altach: -0.1.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonSturm GrazEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A pattern of Sturm Graz being held at half-time before pulling away is plausible given their second-half strength, but specific HT-FT combos are inherently low probability.
- Sturm Graz drew at half-time in 3 of last 5 competitive matches but won 4 of those 5.
- Altach drew at half-time in 2 of last 5 competitive matches but lost 2 of those 5.
- Last H2H (2-0 Sturm Graz): 0-0 at HT, Sturm Graz won second half 2-0.
- Sturm Graz's first-half goal average (0.9) suggests they often break deadlocks after HT.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonDraw / Sturm GrazEstimated chance30%

Goals2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sturm Graz's consistent scoring and Altach's defensive vulnerabilities, especially late in games, support a total goals over 2.5.
- Sturm Graz averaged 2.5 goals scored per game over last 15 matches; Altach averaged 1.5 goals scored.
- Last 3 H2H meetings all had at least 2 goals, with 2 of 3 hitting Over 2.5.
- Altach conceded in 4 of last 5 competitive matches, including 4 goals vs Wolfsberger AC.
- Sturm Graz home matches (all comps) in last 15: 4 of 5 with available data had Over 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Altach's poor away scoring record and Sturm Graz's solid defense, especially in H2H, suggest at least one team will fail to score.
- Altach failed to score in 2 of last 3 competitive away matches (0-1 vs Rapid Vienna, 0-3 vs FC BW Linz).
- Sturm Graz kept clean sheets in 3 of last 5 competitive matches, including both Bundesliga games this season.
- Last 2 Bundesliga H2H meetings: Sturm Graz won 2-0 both times, Altach failed to score.
- Altach's away goals this season: 0 in 1 match; overall they average 1.5 goals/game but heavily reliant on home form.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Sturm Graz's defensive solidity and Altach's away scoring woes make a home clean sheet a strong possibility.
- Sturm Graz kept clean sheets in 3 of last 5 competitive matches (2-0 vs Hartberg, 3-0 vs Seekirchen, 1-0 vs Pogon Szczecin).
- Altach failed to score in 2 of last 3 competitive away matches.
- Last 2 Bundesliga H2H: Sturm Graz 2-0 Altach, Altach 0-2 Sturm Graz.
- Sturm Graz conceded only 1 goal in 2 Bundesliga matches this season.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonAltach not to scoreEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have decent first-half scoring records, and recent matches suggest at least one goal before the break is likely.
- Sturm Graz first-half goals: 0.9 average; Altach first-half goals: 0.8 average over last 15.
- Both teams scored in the first half in 3 of last 5 competitive matches for Sturm Graz.
- Altach's last 5 competitive matches: first-half goals in 4 of 5 (both teams scored in 2).
- H2H last 3 Bundesliga: first-half goals in 2 of 3 (1-0 HT in 2-1 win, 0-0 in both 2-0 wins).
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Sturm Graz's second-half strength and Altach's fatigue-related late concessions point to multiple goals after the break.
- Sturm Graz scored 60% of their goals in the second half over last 15 matches (1.5 second-half goals/game).
- Altach conceded 70% of their goals in the second half over last 15 (0.9 second-half goals conceded/game).
- Altach coach flagged late-game physical/mental issues, linking recent late concessions to added running load.
- Last 3 H2H: second-half goals in all 3 (2, 1, 1 goals respectively).
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance60%

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Historical H2H and Sturm Graz's corner generation suggest a total around 9, but Altach's low corner numbers introduce uncertainty.
- Sturm Graz average corners per game: 5.8; Altach average: 3.6 over last 15.
- Combined average corners in Sturm Graz matches: 11.4; in Altach matches: 8.4.
- Last 3 Bundesliga H2H corner counts: 9, 7, 11 (average 9.0).
- Sturm Graz home matches with corner data: 7, 9, 4, 9, 7 (average 7.2).
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sturm Graz consistently produces high shot counts, and Altach's defense tends to allow many attempts, making over 15.5 home shots likely.
- Sturm Graz average shots total per game: 18.0 over last 15 matches.
- Sturm Graz home matches with shot data: 19, 20, 22, 26 shots (all over 15.5).
- Altach allowed 18 shots vs Rapid Vienna away and 17 vs FC BW Linz away.
- Sturm Graz's attacking style generates high shot volumes, especially at home.
BetBugs · Home Shots TotalwonSturm Graz over 15.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
While not a high-card fixture historically, the competitive nature and Altach's physical style could push the total over 3.5 cards.
- Sturm Graz average yellow cards: 2.0 per game; Altach average: 1.4 over last 15.
- Combined average cards in Sturm Graz matches: 4.2; in Altach matches: 3.6.
- Last 3 Bundesliga H2H: 3, 2, 5 cards (average 3.3).
- Sturm Graz home matches with card data: 4, 3, 4, 3 cards (average 3.5).
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 85% leaves no cushion vs our 90% estimate; the price already reflects the directional read and offers minimal value.

Head-to-Head

3W · 1D · 1W

W2-0Sturm GrazvSCR AltachMar 8, 2026BL

L3-1SCR AltachvSturm GrazFeb 1, 2026CUP

W0-2SCR AltachvSturm GrazOct 5, 2025BL

D1-1SCR AltachvSturm GrazNov 30, 2024BL

W2-1Sturm GrazvSCR AltachAug 24, 2024BL

Sturm Graz: 2 clean sheets2.6 goals/game avg

League Table

Bundesliga 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
4	Sturm Graz Promotion - Bundesliga (Championship Group)	2	1	1	0	3-1	4	WD
6	Altach Promotion - Bundesliga (Championship Group)	2	1	0	1	3-2	3	WL

1pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Sturm Graz

L0-1FenerbahçeAug 11UEF

W2-0TSV HartbergAug 8BL

L0-2FenerbahçeAug 5UEF

D1-1WSG WattensAug 1BL

W2-0Heart Of MidlothianJul 28UEF

W3-0SeekirchenJul 24CUP

W4-0Heart Of MidlothianJul 21UEF

W1-0Pogon SzczecinJul 15FRI

W5-1Sanfrecce HiroshimaJul 11FRI

W4-1KalsdorfJul 8FRI

D2-2FK KošiceJul 3FRI

L2-6LNZ CherkasyJun 30FRI

W5-0MuraJun 26FRI

W2-0Rapid ViennaMay 17BL

W4-2TSV HartbergMay 10BL

Altach

W3-1WSG WattensAug 7BL

L0-1Rapid ViennaAug 2BL

W1-0LeobendorfJul 24CUP

W3-1GrasshoppersJul 18FRI

W1-0FC VaduzJul 10FRI

L1-21. FC HeidenheimJul 4FRI

L2-3FC ST. GallenJun 27FRI

W4-0HörbranzJun 20FRI

W2-0RiedMay 16BL

D2-2Grazer AKMay 9BL

L1-4Wolfsberger ACMay 4BL

L0-3FC BW LinzApr 24BL

D0-0WSG WattensApr 21BL

D2-2WSG WattensApr 18BL

W1-0Grazer AKApr 11BL

Squad & Injuries

Sturm Graz

32 available

Attackers8

Midfielders9

Defenders12

Goalkeeper3

Altach

30 available

Attackers7

Midfielders9

Defenders10

Goalkeeper4

Sturm Graz1Altach0

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Sturm Graz

Over 2.5

No

Over 15.5

Sturm Graz

Over 0.5

BetBugs probabilities

Result3 of 4 landed

Goals2 of 5 landed

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Markets to Avoid

Over 0.5

Under 15.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Sturm Graz

Altach

Squad & Injuries

Sturm Graz

Altach