Liga ProFull time

Predictions graded

Independiente del Valle3Delfin SC2

HT 3–1Sat 15 Aug 2026, 00:00 Predictions graded

Predictions7–370%

Edges5–363%

PossPossession 71%–29%ShotsShots 26–7On targetOn target 10–2CornersCorners 9–5

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Aug 2026, 06:35 · Europe/Bucharest

IDV are strong favourites at home, but the odds are heavily juiced (1.18) and rotation risk ahead of their Libertadores tie makes the outright a poor value bet.

The only market with a marginal edge is Over 2.5 goals at 1.55, but even that depends on IDV fielding a strong attack. Wait for team news before betting.

Context

AS reported on 9 August that IDV secured the LigaPro regular-phase lead with six fixtures remaining.
- The Copa Libertadores round-of-16 first leg against Deportes Tolima is on the following Tuesday.
- No official rotation has been confirmed, but the incentive to rest key players is high.
Most recent H2H at IDV: IDV 1-2 Delfin (03 Aug 2024).
- Last three listed meetings were all won by the away side.
- Delfin have won only once away this season, but the H2H shows they can upset IDV.
IDV home record: 9W-1D-2L, 28 goals scored in 12 home matches.
- Delfin away record: 1W-3D-8L, 6 goals scored in 12 away matches.
- IDV last 5 form: WWWWW; Delfin last 5 form: DLLLW.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 7

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Independiente del Valle

1.18fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 84.7%

0.0ppshort

IDV's dominant home form and Delfin's poor away record make a home win highly likely, but the odds are heavily juiced and offer no value.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Independiente del Valle or Draw

1.04fair 1.09

BetBugs 92% · Market 96.2%

0.0ppshort

IDV have lost only twice at home all season, while Delfin have won just once away, but the odds are near 1.00 and offer no value.

1 St Half ResultwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Independiente del Valle

1.50fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 66.7%

0.0ppshort

IDV's tendency to lead at half time and Delfin's weak first-half defense make a home lead at the break probable, but the odds are too short.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.22fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

IDV's strong first-half scoring record and Delfin's tendency to concede early make a first-half goal likely.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
IDV's dominant home form and Delfin's poor away record, combined with the massive points gap, make a home win highly likely.
- IDV home record: 9W-1D-2L, 28 goals scored, 10 conceded in 12 home matches
- IDV overall: 20W-1D-3L, 58 goals scored, 22 conceded in 24 matches
- Delfin away record: 1W-3D-8L, 6 goals scored, 16 conceded in 12 away matches
- IDV last 5 form: WWWWW; Delfin last 5 form: DLLLW
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonIndependiente del ValleEstimated chance72%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
IDV have lost only twice at home all season, while Delfin have won just once away, making a Delfin win very unlikely.
- IDV home record: 9W-1D-2L, 28 goals scored, 10 conceded in 12 home matches
- Delfin away record: 1W-3D-8L, 6 goals scored, 16 conceded in 12 away matches
- IDV overall: 20W-1D-3L, 58 goals scored, 22 conceded in 24 matches
BetBugs · Double ChancewonIndependiente del Valle or DrawEstimated chance92%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
IDV's tendency to lead at half time and Delfin's weak first-half defense make a home lead at the break probable.
- IDV leading at half time in 73% of matches overall
- Delfin trailing at half time in 13% of matches overall
- IDV first half goals per match: 1.1 overall, 1.0 at home
- Delfin first half goals conceded per match: 0.3 overall, 0.4 away
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonIndependiente del ValleEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
IDV's strong home form and tendency to lead at half time make a home win at both half time and full time a solid possibility.
- IDV leading at half time in 73% of matches overall
- IDV home record: 9W-1D-2L, 28 goals scored, 10 conceded in 12 home matches
- Delfin away record: 1W-3D-8L, 6 goals scored, 16 conceded in 12 away matches
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostIndependiente del Valle / Independiente del ValleEstimated chance50%

Goals2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
IDV's high-scoring attack at home and Delfin's defensive struggles suggest a match with at least three total goals.
- IDV average goals per match: 2.9 overall, 2.3 at home
- Delfin average goals conceded per match: 1.3 overall, 1.3 away
- IDV last 5 home matches: 3, 3, 6, 4, 2 goals scored
- Delfin last 5 away matches: 1, 0, 0, 1, 0 goals scored
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Delfin's poor away scoring record and IDV's solid home defense make it likely that IDV keeps a clean sheet.
- IDV home clean sheets: 5 in 12 home matches
- Delfin away goals scored: 6 in 12 away matches (0.5 per game)
- IDV average goals conceded at home: 0.83 per game
- Delfin failed to score in 6 of 12 away matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Delfin's away scoring struggles and IDV's defensive solidity at home support a home clean sheet.
- IDV home clean sheets: 5 in 12 home matches
- Delfin away goals scored: 6 in 12 away matches (0.5 per game)
- Delfin failed to score in 6 of 12 away matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostDelfin SC not to scoreEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
IDV's strong first-half scoring record and Delfin's tendency to concede early make a first-half goal likely.
- IDV first half goals per match: 1.1 overall, 1.0 at home
- Delfin first half goals conceded per match: 0.3 overall, 0.4 away
- IDV leading at half time in 73% of matches overall
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
IDV's high corner count and Delfin's tendency to concede corners suggest a total above 8.5 corners is plausible.
- IDV average corners per match: 6.8 overall, 6.3 at home
- Delfin average corners conceded per match: 5.8 overall, 6.0 away
- IDV last 5 home matches corners: 7, 4, 6, 6, 9
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
IDV's high volume of shots on target and Delfin's defensive struggles suggest a total above 8.5 shots on target.
- IDV average shots on target per match: 7.5 overall, 7.8 at home
- Delfin average shots on target conceded per match: 4.8 overall, 5.0 away
- IDV last 5 home matches shots on target: 6, 6, 7, 10, 8
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance60%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 84.7% leaves no cushion vs our 72% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Head-to-Head

2W · 2D · 1W

W0-1Delfin SCvIndependiente del ValleApr 22, 2026LIG

D0-0Independiente del VallevDelfin SCSep 28, 2025LIG

D1-1Delfin SCvIndependiente del ValleMay 31, 2025LIG

L1-2Independiente del VallevDelfin SCAug 3, 2024LIG

W0-1Delfin SCvIndependiente del ValleMar 2, 2024LIG

Independiente del Valle: 3 clean sheets1.4 goals/game avg

League Table

Liga Pro 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
1	Independiente del Valle Play-offs	24	20	1	3	58-22	61	WWWWW
15	Delfin SC Relegation Playoffs	24	6	6	12	15-24	24	DLLLW

37pt gap between teamsIndependiente del Valle leads the leagueDelfin SC in relegation zone

Recent Form

Independiente del Valle

W2-0LDU de QuitoAug 8LIG

W1-0Deportivo CuencaAug 2LIG

W1-0Manta FCJul 30COP

W3-2Orense SCJul 26LIG

W3-0Tecnico UniversitarioJul 22LIG

W6-1EmelecJul 20LIG

W3-0AucasJul 16LIG

W4-1Mushuc Runa SCJul 11LIG

W2-0Santo DomingoJul 8COP

W4-0Manta FCJul 4LIG

W4-2Guayaquil City FCMay 31LIG

W1-0Rosario CentralMay 27CON

L2-3LibertadMay 23LIG

W4-1Libertad AsuncionMay 20CON

W3-0MacaraMay 16LIG

Delfin SC

D1-1Orense SCAug 9LIG

L1-2LDU de QuitoAug 4LIG

L0-1Leones del NorteJul 26LIG

L0-1LibertadJul 21LIG

W2-1MacaraJul 18LIG

W1-0Manta FCJul 15LIG

L1-2Guayaquil City FCJul 11LIG

D1-1EmelecJul 5LIG

L0-1Deportivo CuencaMay 31LIG

L1-2Barcelona SCMay 24LIG

D2-2Universidad CatolicaMay 16LIG

W2-0Baños Ciudad de FuegoMay 12COP

L0-4Tecnico UniversitarioMay 9LIG

W1-0Mushuc Runa SCMay 3LIG

L0-1AucasApr 28LIG

Squad & Injuries

Independiente del Valle

33 available

Attackers5

Midfielders13

Defenders11

Goalkeeper4

Delfin SC

32 available

Attackers5

Midfielders14

Defenders9

Goalkeeper4

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 2.5

Independiente del Valle

Independiente del Valle or Draw

Independiente del Valle

Independiente del Valle at half-time / Independiente del Valle at full-time

No

Delfin SC not to score

Over 0.5

Result3 of 4 landed

Goals2 of 4 landed

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Markets to Avoid

Independiente del Valle

Independiente del Valle or Draw

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Independiente del Valle

Delfin SC

Squad & Injuries

Independiente del Valle

Delfin SC