Lindome GIF2BK Astrio0

HT 0–0Fri 14 Aug 2026, 17:30 Predictions graded

Predictions2–625%

Edges2–250%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Aug 2026, 15:26 · Europe/Bucharest

Lindome GIF are strong favourites based on recent H2H wins and Astrio's poor form, but the 1.43 home win odds offer no value.

The best edge is Over 3.5 goals at 1.70, with a +6 point value gap, while Over 2.5 at 1.25 is overpriced. Avoid the match winner and double chance markets due to negative or negligible value.

Context

Astrio lost their last five league matches, including a 0-6 home defeat to Torslanda on 9 August.
- They have won only 1 of 16 league games this season.
- They are bottom of the table with 6 points, 8 points from safety.
Lindome's last 8 home matches: W3 D2 L3.
- They lost 2-3 to Jonsered and 0-2 to Onsala at home recently.
- Their overall home goal difference is +2 (scored 15, conceded 13 in 8 home games).
All seven H2H meetings had over 2.5 goals.
- Lindome won the last two meetings 2-1 (June 2026 and August 2025).
- Astrio won five of the seven overall, but the recent trend favors Lindome.
Astrio's away record: 0W 2D 6L.
- They drew 0-0 at Onsala and 0-0 at Hestrafor.
- They have scored only 4 goals in 8 away matches.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Lindome GIF

1.43fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 69.9%

0.0ppshort

Lindome's superior recent H2H (two straight wins) and Astrio's five-match losing streak support a home win, but the odds imply a higher probability than our model.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Lindome's superior form, recent H2H dominance, and Astrio's relegation-level struggles make a home win the most likely outcome.
- Lindome GIF have won their last two H2H meetings against BK Astrio (2-1 away on 11 Jun 2026 and 2-1 home on 2 Aug 2025).
- BK Astrio are on a five-match losing streak in the league and sit bottom with 6 points from 16 games.
- Lindome GIF average 1.9 goals per game overall, while BK Astrio concede 2.5 goals per game on average.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonLindome GIFEstimated chance62%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Given Astrio's poor away record (0 wins in 8) and Lindome's solid overall form, the home side avoiding defeat is highly probable.
- Lindome GIF have lost only 5 of 16 league matches this season.
- BK Astrio have won only 1 of 16 league matches and are winless in their last 5.
- Lindome are unbeaten in their last two H2H meetings (2 wins).
BetBugs · Double ChancewonLindome GIF or DrawEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Lindome's tendency to lead at half-time and Astrio's tendency to trail give the home side a slight edge, but the recent H2H first-half draw lowers confidence.
- Lindome GIF lead at half-time in 47% of their matches.
- BK Astrio trail at half-time in 53% of their matches.
- In the last H2H meeting, the first half was drawn 0-0.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostLindome GIFEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While Lindome are favored to win, the probability of them leading at half-time and maintaining it is moderate due to their inconsistent first-half performances.
- Lindome GIF have led at half-time and won the match in 4 of their last 15 games.
- BK Astrio have trailed at half-time and lost the match in 8 of their last 15 games.
- The last two H2H meetings saw Lindome win, but only one had Lindome leading at half-time.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostLindome GIF/Lindome GIFEstimated chance35%

Goals0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The H2H pattern of high-scoring games combined with both teams' defensive vulnerabilities supports over 2.5 goals.
- All seven H2H meetings produced at least three goals.
- Lindome GIF average 1.9 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per game.
- BK Astrio concede 2.5 goals per game on average and have seen over 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 5 matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Lindome's consistent scoring and Astrio's occasional goals, combined with leaky defenses, make both teams scoring likely.
- Lindome GIF have scored in 13 of their last 15 matches.
- BK Astrio have scored in 4 of their last 5 matches despite losing.
- Both teams scored in 3 of the last 5 H2H meetings.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While both teams have moderate first-half scoring/conceding rates, the low-scoring first half in the recent H2H tempers confidence.
- Lindome GIF average 0.9 first-half goals per game.
- BK Astrio concede 1.1 first-half goals per game on average.
- In the last H2H meeting (11 Jun 2026), the first half ended 0-0.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Second halves tend to be more open as fatigue sets in, and both teams' second-half stats support over 1.5 goals.
- Lindome GIF score 1.0 goals per second half on average (derived from total 1.9 minus first-half 0.9).
- BK Astrio concede 1.4 goals per second half on average (derived from total 2.5 minus first-half 1.1).
- The last H2H meeting saw both goals in the second half.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Without corner data, this is a speculative pick based on the expectation of an open game with attacking play.
- Corner data is unavailable for both teams in the provided dataset.
- No corner averages are available for either team.
- This prediction is based on typical match dynamics rather than specific stats.
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Given the lack of discipline data, this is a neutral expectation for a competitive league match.
- Discipline data (fouls, yellow cards, red cards) is unavailable for both teams.
- No card averages are provided in the dataset.
- This prediction is based on typical match intensity rather than specific stats.
BetBugs · Cards Over/Undernot gradableOver 3.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 69.9% leaves no cushion vs our 62% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

Lindome GIF has been moderately reliable when projected to win

Lindome GIF has fulfilled 2 of 4 recent win projections. The missed projections included one draw and one loss, with no wins in those missed matches. The current probability of 62% is above the historical range of 45-55%, suggesting a stronger projection than previously observed.

Recent evidence for Lindome GIF4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

31 Jul·Division 2 - Västra Götaland