Start Kristiansand0Fredrikstad1

HT 0–1Sat 8 Aug 2026, 16:00 Predictions graded

Predictions5–456%

Edges2–250%

PossPossession 49%–51%ShotsShots 13–13On targetOn target 2–3CornersCorners 6–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 3 Aug 2026, 07:24 · Europe/Bucharest

Over 2.5 goals is the standout bet with a six-point edge (65% estimate vs.

58.8% implied), backed by three straight high-scoring H2Hs and both teams' leaky defenses. Fredrikstad's defensive reinforcements add risk, but Start's desperation and poor home form make Draw or Fredrikstad a solid double chance at a slight value.

Context

The 1 August match was the first sellout since the stadium opened in 2007.
- Start lost that match without scoring, leaving them three points from safety.
- A second straight home failure could deepen the relegation crisis.
Owusu started on 1 August for the first time since April.
- Amundsen was signed on 28 July and was on the bench last match.
- Fredrikstad have conceded in seven of their last eight away matches.
Fredrikstad won 2-1 in May 2026, drew 2-2 in September 2023, and won 3-1 in June 2023.
- All three matches saw both teams score and over 2.5 goals.
- Start have not beaten Fredrikstad in the last three attempts.
Home record in last seven: W1 D2 L4.
- They have conceded 2.5 goals per home game on average.
- The only home win was a 2-0 result against Valerenga on 25 May.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Both Teams To ScorelostUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.62fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 61.7%

0.0ppshort

H2H pattern of both teams scoring aligns with both sides' consistent ability to score and concede, making BTTS likely.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
H2H psychology and Start's poor home form give Fredrikstad a slight edge, but their own away struggles keep confidence low.
- Fredrikstad are unbeaten in last 3 H2H (2W, 1D).
- Start have 1 win in last 7 home matches (1W, 3D, 3L).
- Fredrikstad's away form is poor (1W, 1D, 6L) but Start's home form is equally weak.
- Fredrikstad have a new coach and strengthened defense (Owusu, Amundsen).
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonFredrikstadEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Start's home win probability is low given their form and H2H record, making Draw or Fredrikstad a solid double chance.
- Fredrikstad are unbeaten in last 3 H2H (2W, 1D).
- Start have only 1 win in last 7 home matches.
- Fredrikstad have avoided defeat in 2 of last 5 away matches.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or FredrikstadEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams rarely lead at half-time, and recent H2H shows two draws, suggesting a first-half stalemate is plausible.
- Start led at half-time in only 27% of last 15 matches.
- Fredrikstad led at half-time in only 13% of last 15 matches.
- H2H: half-time results were L, D, D in last three meetings.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time followed by a Fredrikstad win is a low-probability but possible scenario given Start's second-half defensive frailties.
- Start have drawn at half-time in 4 of last 15 matches; Fredrikstad in 5 of last 15.
- Fredrikstad won 2 of last 3 H2H meetings.
- Start's second-half performance is poor (conceded 1.8 goals per second half).
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonDraw / FredrikstadEstimated chance25%

Goals1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
H2H psychology and both teams' high-scoring defensive vulnerabilities, especially Start's 2.5 goals conceded average, strongly support Over 2.5 goals.
- All three latest H2H meetings produced Over 2.5 goals (2-1, 2-2, 3-1).
- Start's last 15 matches average 3.5 total goals (1.0 scored, 2.5 conceded).
- Fredrikstad's away matches average 3.1 total goals (0.75 scored, 2.4 conceded).
- Start's last 5 home matches: 3 of 5 had Over 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
H2H pattern of both teams scoring aligns with both sides' consistent ability to score and concede, making BTTS likely.
- Both teams scored in all three latest H2H meetings.
- Start scored in 4 of last 5 home matches; Fredrikstad scored in 4 of last 5 away matches.
- Start conceded in 14 of last 15 matches; Fredrikstad conceded in 7 of last 8 away matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams consistently see first-half goals, with Start's high rate of 87% making Over 0.5 first-half goals very probable.
- Start's last 15 matches: first-half goals in 13 of 15 (87%).
- Fredrikstad's last 15 matches: first-half goals in 11 of 15 (73%).
- H2H: first-half goals in 2 of last 3 meetings.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Second halves tend to be higher scoring for both teams, and H2H history shows consistent second-half goals.
- Start's last 15 matches: second-half total goals averaged 1.8.
- Fredrikstad's last 15 matches: second-half total goals averaged 1.5.
- H2H: second-half goals in all three latest meetings (2, 2, 2).
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance60%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Fredrikstad's matches tend to have higher corner counts, and H2H history shows elevated totals, but Start's low average adds uncertainty.
- Start's last 15 matches average 6.6 total corners (3.3 for, 3.3 against).
- Fredrikstad's last 15 matches average 8.6 total corners (4.3 for, 4.3 against).
- H2H: corner counts were 11, 9, 15 in last three meetings.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' card averages and the high-stakes relegation context suggest a card-heavy match.
- Start average 2.2 yellow cards per match; Fredrikstad average 1.9.
- Combined average of 4.1 cards per match.
- Relegation pressure often increases disciplinary actions.
BetBugs · Cards Over/Undernot gradableOver 3.5Estimated chance65%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 41.7% leaves no cushion vs our 60% estimate; vig too heavy for a directional Over play.

Prediction history

Start Kristiansand has seen Over 2.5 goals land in 4 of 6 recent matches

In the last 6 matches where Start Kristiansand was involved and Over 2.5 goals was projected, the bet fulfilled 4 times. The average estimated probability in those matches was 62.5%, with an expected 3.8 fulfilled predictions, so actual fulfilment slightly exceeded expectation. Notably, all 4 fulfilled predictions came away from home, while both home matches fell short, suggesting a stronger tendency for high-scoring games on the road.

Recent evidence for Start Kristiansand6 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

25 Jul·Eliteserien