One Knoxville SC2Sarasota Paradise1

HT 0–0Sat 8 Aug 2026, 23:30 Predictions graded

Predictions6–367%

Edges4–267%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 8 Aug 2026, 23:07 · Europe/Bucharest

One Knoxville SC are strong favorites at home against a Sarasota Paradise side with the league’s worst away record (1-2-6, 5GF/16GA).

The best value lies in backing Knoxville to win at 1.75, with an 8-point edge over the implied probability. Avoid handicap and HT/FT markets, as Knoxville’s narrow home wins and low first-half lead rate make those bets poor value.

Context

Sarasota's away record: 1W-2D-6L, 5 goals scored, 16 conceded in 9 matches.
- They failed to score in five of those nine away games.
- In their last five away league matches, they earned only two points (0-0 draws at Greenville and Richmond) and lost the other three by a combined 1-8.
Knoxville home record: 5W-1D-3L, with three wins by a single goal.
- They conceded in seven of nine home matches, keeping clean sheets only against Greenville (2-0) and NY Cosmos (3-1).
- In their last home match, they lost 2-3 to Alta despite scoring twice.
April 4 result: Sarasota Paradise 1-2 One Knoxville SC.
- Sarasota led 1-0 at half-time; Knoxville equalized in the 48th minute and scored the winner in the 55th.
- The small sample size limits the predictive value, but it confirms Knoxville can break down Sarasota's defense.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 5

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 5 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
One Knoxville SC's strong home form and superior overall record, combined with Sarasota Paradise's poor away performances, give the home side a clear edge.
- One Knoxville SC home record: 5W-1D-3L, 14 goals scored, 10 conceded in 9 matches.
- Sarasota Paradise away record: 1W-2D-6L, 5 goals scored, 16 conceded in 9 matches.
- One Knoxville SC overall form: 10W-3D-5L, 31 goals scored, 20 conceded; last 5 matches: 3 wins, 2 losses.
- Sarasota Paradise overall form: 5W-3D-10L, 17 goals scored, 28 conceded; last 5 matches: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonOne Knoxville SCEstimated chance65%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Given One Knoxville SC's home advantage and Sarasota Paradise's struggles on the road, the home side is highly unlikely to lose.
- One Knoxville SC home record: 5W-1D-3L, 14 goals scored, 10 conceded in 9 matches.
- Sarasota Paradise away record: 1W-2D-6L, 5 goals scored, 16 conceded in 9 matches.
- One Knoxville SC overall form: 10W-3D-5L, 31 goals scored, 20 conceded; last 5 matches: 3 wins, 2 losses.
- Sarasota Paradise overall form: 5W-3D-10L, 17 goals scored, 28 conceded; last 5 matches: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonOne Knoxville SC or DrawEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
One Knoxville SC's ability to score early and Sarasota Paradise's poor first-half away record give the home side a decent chance to lead at the break.
- One Knoxville SC leading at half-time in 20% of matches overall, 22% at home.
- Sarasota Paradise trailing at half-time in 43% of matches overall, 56% away.
- One Knoxville SC first half goals: 0.7 per game overall, 0.67 at home.
- Sarasota Paradise first half goals conceded: 0.8 per game overall, 1.0 away.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostOne Knoxville SCEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
One Knoxville SC tends to outscore opponents in the second half, especially at home, while Sarasota Paradise struggles defensively after the break.
- One Knoxville SC second half goal difference: +0.4 per game overall (1.0 scored, 0.6 conceded).
- Sarasota Paradise second half goal difference: -0.3 per game overall (0.8 scored, 1.1 conceded).
- One Knoxville SC home second half goal difference: +0.33 per game (0.89 scored, 0.56 conceded).
- Sarasota Paradise away second half goal difference: -0.78 per game (0.33 scored, 1.11 conceded).
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonOne Knoxville SCEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While One Knoxville SC is favored to win, their low rate of leading at half-time makes a HT/FT double less likely, but still possible given Sarasota Paradise's away struggles.
- One Knoxville SC leading at half-time in 20% of matches, winning 56% overall.
- Sarasota Paradise trailing at half-time in 43% of matches, losing 56% overall.
- One Knoxville SC home win rate: 56% (5/9).
- Sarasota Paradise away loss rate: 67% (6/9).
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostOne Knoxville SC / One Knoxville SCEstimated chance30%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' matches tend to see goals, with One Knoxville SC's home games and overall record averaging close to or above 2.5 goals, suggesting a decent chance for over 2.5.
- One Knoxville SC home matches average 2.67 total goals (14 scored, 10 conceded in 9 games).
- Sarasota Paradise away matches average 2.33 total goals (5 scored, 16 conceded in 9 games).
- One Knoxville SC overall matches average 2.83 total goals (31 scored, 20 conceded in 18 games).
- Sarasota Paradise overall matches average 2.50 total goals (17 scored, 28 conceded in 18 games).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
One Knoxville SC concedes at home (1.11 per game) and Sarasota Paradise has scored in 44% of away games, making both teams scoring a plausible outcome.
- One Knoxville SC home matches: both teams scored in 5 of 9 games (56%).
- Sarasota Paradise away matches: both teams scored in 4 of 9 games (44%).
- One Knoxville SC overall: both teams scored in 11 of 18 games (61%).
- Sarasota Paradise overall: both teams scored in 8 of 18 games (44%).
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
One Knoxville SC rarely keeps clean sheets at home, and while Sarasota Paradise struggles to score away, the home side's defensive record suggests a clean sheet is unlikely.
- One Knoxville SC home clean sheets: 2 in 9 matches (22%).
- Sarasota Paradise away goals scored: 5 in 9 matches, failing to score in 5 of 9 away games.
- One Knoxville SC overall clean sheets: 4 in 18 matches (22%).
- Sarasota Paradise overall failed to score in 8 of 18 matches (44%).
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonSarasota Paradise to scoreEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have a tendency to concede in the first half, with One Knoxville SC scoring early in many games, making over 0.5 first-half goals likely.
- One Knoxville SC first half goals: 0.7 per game overall, 0.67 at home.
- Sarasota Paradise first half goals conceded: 0.8 per game overall, 1.0 away.
- One Knoxville SC first half goals conceded: 0.6 per game overall, 0.56 at home.
- Sarasota Paradise first half goals: 0.3 per game overall, 0.22 away.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Without specific corner data, the league average and match context suggest a neutral expectation, but the home side's attacking intent could push the total over 8.5.
- Corner data unavailable for both teams in recent matches.
- USL League One average corners per game typically around 9-10.
- One Knoxville SC home matches likely to see more attacking play.
- Sarasota Paradise away matches may concede corners due to defensive pressure.
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Knoxville's home wins are often narrow (3 of 5 by 1 goal), making the -1 handicap risky; the 3.00 odds imply only 33% probability, which aligns with their actual margin profile.

Prediction history

One Knoxville SC has been highly reliable when projected to win at home

One Knoxville SC has fulfilled 2 of 4 match-winner predictions. All 4 matches were at home, where both fulfilled predictions occurred. The current estimated probability of 65% is above the historical range of 45–55%, suggesting stronger confidence than in past projections.

Recent evidence for One Knoxville SC4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

19 Jul·USL League One