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Predictions graded

New England Revolution0Houston Dynamo2

HT 0–1Sat 8 Aug 2026, 20:30 Predictions graded

Predictions3–827%

Edges2–433%

PossPossession 48%–52%ShotsShots 9–13On targetOn target 2–7CornersCorners 9–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 3 Aug 2026, 08:00 · Europe/Bucharest

New England's dominant home form (8-1-1) and Houston's leaky road defense make Over 1.5 New England goals at 2.10 the top value play (+17.4-point edge).

The Double Chance (New England or Draw) at 1.44 is a high-confidence safety net, while the straight win offers no edge. Expect goals, but avoid Over 3.5 and first-half markets due to thin margins and uncertainty around Jack Harrison's debut.

Context

New England confirmed Harrison's eligibility on August 2.
- Harrison joined from Leeds United on July 25 and has not yet played for the Revs.
- His starting status and expected minutes remain unconfirmed.
Antonio Carlos and A. Bouzat are listed as missing the fixture due to red cards.
- Both are regular starters, and their absence forces Houston to adjust their backline and midfield.
- Houston's away defense has already conceded 2+ goals in 62.5% of road games.
New England's home record: 8 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss.
- They have scored 2+ goals in 80% of home matches.
- Only one loss at home all season, with 4 wins and 1 draw in the last 5 home games.
Houston's August 1 match report highlighted their high press creating a turnover for a goal.
- This is the second consecutive away match, though seven days between games reduces short-rest concerns.
- Ben Olsen remains head coach, and the team's pressing style is consistent.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
New England's strong home form (8-1-1) and Houston's weaker away record (3-1-4) give the Revs a clear structural home/away edge, supported by their recent home dominance.
- New England home record: 8W-1D-1L, 21 goals scored, 8 conceded in 10 matches this season.
- Houston away record: 3W-1D-4L, 13 goals scored, 17 conceded in 8 matches.
- New England last 5 home matches: 4W-1D-0L, 11 goals scored, 3 conceded.
- Houston last 5 away matches: 2W-1D-2L, 8 goals scored, 9 conceded.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostNew England RevolutionEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
New England's fortress-like home form (only 1 loss all season) combined with Houston's mediocre away performances makes a home win or draw highly probable.
- New England home record: 8W-1D-1L, only 1 loss in 10 home games.
- Houston away record: 3W-1D-4L, losing half of their away matches.
- New England last 5 home matches: unbeaten (4W-1D).
- Houston last 5 away matches: 2W-1D-2L, inconsistent.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostNew England Revolution or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
New England's tendency to start strong at home (50% halftime leads) gives them a slight edge, but Houston's resilience on the road keeps this low confidence.
- New England home matches: led at halftime in 5 of 10 (50%).
- Houston away matches: trailed at halftime in 2 of 8 (25%), led in 3 (37.5%).
- New England last 5 home matches: led at halftime in 3.
- Houston last 5 away matches: led at halftime in 2.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostNew England RevolutionEstimated chance40%

Goals2 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' home/away splits trend toward high-scoring affairs, and recent H2H history shows consistent goal production, supporting over 2.5 goals.
- New England home matches average 2.9 total goals (21 scored, 8 conceded in 10 games).
- Houston away matches average 3.75 total goals (13 scored, 17 conceded in 8 games).
- Last 3 MLS H2H meetings all had over 2.5 goals (3-0, 2-1, 3-1).
- New England last 5 home matches: 4 of 5 had over 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
New England's home defense isn't impenetrable (conceded in 70% of recent home games), and Houston consistently finds the net on the road, making BTTS likely.
- New England home matches: both teams scored in 6 of 10 (60%).
- Houston away matches: both teams scored in 6 of 8 (75%).
- New England conceded in 7 of last 10 home matches.
- Houston scored in 7 of last 8 away matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
New England's potent home attack (2.1 goals per game) faces a Houston defense that often concedes multiple goals on the road, making over 1.5 home goals a strong play.
- New England home matches: scored 2+ goals in 8 of 10 (80%).
- New England last 5 home matches: scored 2+ in 4 of 5.
- Houston away matches: conceded 2+ goals in 5 of 8 (62.5%).
- New England average 2.1 goals per home game this season.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostNew England Revolution over 1.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Houston's consistent away scoring record (scored in 7 of 8 away games) against a New England defense that often concedes at home supports over 0.5 away goals.
- Houston away matches: scored in 7 of 8 (87.5%).
- Houston last 5 away matches: scored in all 5.
- New England home matches: conceded in 7 of 10 (70%).
- Houston average 1.63 goals per away game.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonHouston Dynamo over 0.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have a high frequency of first-half goals in their respective home/away splits, making over 0.5 first-half goals probable.
- New England home matches: first-half goals in 8 of 10 (80%).
- Houston away matches: first-half goals in 7 of 8 (87.5%).
- New England average 0.7 first-half goals scored, 0.7 conceded at home.
- Houston average 0.7 first-half goals scored, 0.5 conceded away.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' matches tend to open up in the second half, with high second-half goal averages in their respective home/away splits, though confidence is tempered by small sample variance.
- New England home matches: second-half goals in 9 of 10 (90%), averaging 1.6 per game.
- Houston away matches: second-half goals in 7 of 8 (87.5%), averaging 2.0 per game.
- New England last 5 home matches: 4 had over 1.5 second-half goals.
- Houston last 5 away matches: 4 had over 1.5 second-half goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' home/away corner averages hover around the 8.5 line, with recent matches showing a slight lean toward higher corner counts, but the evidence is not strong enough for higher confidence.
- New England home matches average 8.8 total corners (4.1 for, 4.7 against).
- Houston away matches average 8.5 total corners (3.3 for, 5.2 against).
- New England last 5 home matches: 3 had over 8.5 corners.
- Houston last 5 away matches: 3 had over 8.5 corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' card averages are near the 3.5 threshold, with recent matches slightly favoring overs, but the low confidence reflects the marginal nature of the edge.
- New England home matches average 3.4 total cards (1.7 for, 1.7 against).
- Houston away matches average 3.8 total cards (1.9 for, 1.9 against).
- New England last 5 home matches: 3 had over 3.5 cards.
- Houston last 5 away matches: 3 had over 3.5 cards.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 42% leaves no cushion vs our 45% estimate; the edge is too thin for a medium-confidence call.

Head-to-Head

1W · 1D · 3W

L2-3New England RevolutionvHouston DynamoJan 31, 2026FRI

D3-3Houston DynamovNew England RevolutionFeb 3, 2025FRI

L2-1Houston DynamovNew England RevolutionOct 3, 2024MAJ

W3-0New England RevolutionvHouston DynamoMar 5, 2023MAJ

L3-1Houston DynamovNew England RevolutionSep 14, 2022MAJ

4.2 goals/game avg

League Table

Major League Soccer 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
3	New England Revolution Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)	17	9	3	5	28-21	30	DWDLW
4	Houston Dynamo Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)	17	9	2	6	25-24	29	WWDDW

1pt gap between teams

Recent Form

New England Revolution

D2-2CF MontrealAug 1MAJ

W4-1Atlanta United FCJul 25MAJ

D0-0Toronto FCJul 22MAJ

L0-1CharlotteMay 23MAJ

W2-1Minnesota United FCMay 16MAJ

L0-3Nashville SCMay 13MAJ

W2-1Philadelphia UnionMay 9MAJ

W1-0CharlotteMay 2MAJ

L3-4Orlando City SCApr 29US

D1-1Inter MiamiApr 25MAJ

W2-1Atlanta United FCApr 22MAJ

W2-1Columbus CrewApr 18MAJ

W1-0DC UnitedApr 11MAJ

W3-0CF MontrealApr 4MAJ

L1-3St. Louis CityMar 22MAJ

Houston Dynamo

W2-0Sporting Kansas CityAug 2MAJ

W3-0AustinJul 26MAJ

D1-1DC UnitedJul 23MAJ

W2-1America de CaliJul 16FRI

W3-0CD OlimpiaJul 11FRI

D1-1Los Angeles GalaxyMay 24MAJ

W1-0Vancouver WhitecapsMay 17MAJ

L0-3Real Salt LakeMay 14MAJ

W4-1Los Angeles FCMay 11MAJ

W1-0Colorado RapidsMay 3MAJ

L0-2AustinApr 26MAJ

W1-0San DiegoApr 23MAJ

W1-0Orlando City SCApr 18MAJ

W4-1El Paso LocomotiveApr 16US

L2-6Colorado RapidsApr 12MAJ

Squad & Injuries

New England Revolution

2 out

Attackers1/11

×#25

Midfielders9

Defenders1/11

×#22

Goalkeeper3

#25 P. Miller — Calf Injury

#22 E. Kohler — Head Injury

Houston Dynamo

4 out

Attackers4

Midfielders2/12

×#6

×#30

Defenders1/10

×#3

Goalkeeper4

#3 Antonio Carlos — Red Card

#6 Artur — Knee Injury

#30 A. Bouzat — Red Card

N. Quinones — Lower-Body Injury

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

New England Revolution or Draw

Over 2.5

Over 1.5

Yes

Over 0.5

Over 0.5

Result0 of 3 landed

Goals2 of 6 landed

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Markets to Avoid

Over 2.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

New England Revolution

Houston Dynamo

Squad & Injuries

New England Revolution

Houston Dynamo