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Predictions graded

Jerome Kym #222Switzerland0Jiri Lehecka #21Czechia2

Sets 4-6 · 2-6Fri 30 Oct 2026, 17:05 Predictions gradedQuarter-FinalI.hard

Predictions6–460%

Edges2–250%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageJiri Lehecka · 201 places

Jerome Kym

Switzerland

Swiss right-hander who reached a career-best ATP singles ranking of No. 123 in May 2025. His official 2026 record shows most of his matches have been on clay, but no reliable source explicitly identifies a preferred surface.

Current ranking: #222
Peak ranking: #123 · 2025
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 198 cm

Jiri Lehecka

Czechia

Reached career-high No. 12 in May 2026 after his first Masters 1000 final in Miami. ATP lists hard as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #21
Peak ranking: #12 · 2026
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 30 Oct 2026, 03:10 · Europe/Bucharest

Kym, ranked 222nd, has just beaten world No.

4 Ben Shelton over three sets; Lehecka's serve and 11-2 first-set record still make him the likelier winner, though the 1.35 on him is too short. Three prices hold up: the match going beyond two sets at 2.3, Kym to win at 3.2, and Lehecka by five games or more at 3.2.

Context

Kym's win over Shelton came two days after a straight-sets win over Arthur Rinderknech and carries a 222nd-ranked player into the Basel quarterfinal.
That is the best single result in either player's recent record, and it followed a 7-6 6-4 win over Arthur Rinderknech on 27 October. Kym gave back the second set on a tiebreak before edging the third, so the three-set workload is fresh rather than distant. Lehecka's serve presents a stiffer test than either of those opponents.
- Kym beat Ben Shelton (world No. 4) 6-3 6-7 7-6 on 29 October 2026 on indoor hard.
That first-set record is the clearest separator: Kym is 7-4 in first sets across 11 hard matches in this sample. Lehecka's straight-set habit cuts both ways, because two of his three defeats in that 13-match window came after he had taken the opener. Dropping a set would leave him with real work to do.
- Lehecka went 11-2 in first sets across 13 hard best-of-three matches between 18 September and 29 October 2026.
- In that window he recorded seven 2-0 wins, three 2-1 wins, two 1-2 losses and one 0-2 loss.
A high first-serve yield with almost no free points is why he is 11-4 in that sample. Kym's first-serve figure is 76.6% over 14 matches, close, but he averages 3.4 double faults per match, more than twice as many. The first ball separates them little; the free points separate them more.
- Lehecka won 458 of 577 first-serve points (79.4%) across 13 matches in his last-15 sample.
- He averaged 1.4 double faults per match, 18 in 13 matches.
Close sets have been Kym's pattern: his opening sets average 10.4 games against 10.2 games for Lehecka. Lehecka has played only four tiebreaks across 13 matches in the same window. If the match follows Kym's recent form the margins will be narrow, though the results may still favour Lehecka.
- Kym's 11 hard best-of-three matches between 25 August and 29 October 2026 averaged 26.6 games and 2.55 sets.
- Six of those 11 went to a third set (four 2-1 wins, two 1-2 losses), and five first sets reached a tiebreak.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Lehecka's serve and first-set record point to control, though Kym's recent upset gives him a real chance.
- Lehecka is 11-4 on hard and ranked 21st.
- Lehecka wins 79.4% of first-serve points on hard and averages 1.4 double faults.
- Lehecka has an 11-2 first-set record in hard best-of-three matches.
- Kym has won 8 of 11 hard matches in this sample.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonJiri LeheckaEstimated chance64%

Games2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Kym's own game margin and competitive recent form make a five-game loss less likely.
- Kym's current hard game margin is +35 over 11 matches, about +3.2 per match.
- Lehecka's current hard game margin is about +2.8 per match.
- Kym has won 8 of 11 hard matches in this sample.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostJerome Kym +4.5Estimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
First-set game averages sit above the threshold, with Kym especially prone to close opening sets.
- Kym's first sets average 10.4 games; Lehecka's average 10.2.
- Kym has five first-set tiebreaks in 11 hard best-of-three matches.
- Lehecka has one first-set tiebreak in 13 hard best-of-three matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' second-set averages are above 10 games, and tiebreaks are common enough.
- Kym's second sets average 10.5 games; Lehecka's average 10.2.
- Kym has three second-set tiebreaks in 11 hard best-of-three matches; Lehecka three in 13.
- Kym's recent matches include several tight second sets.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Lehecka's shorter matches and straight-set wins make under slightly more likely.
- Lehecka's hard best-of-three matches average 24.1 games.
- Lehecka has seven 2-0 wins in 13 hard best-of-three matches.
- Kym's hard best-of-three matches average 26.6 games, so this is close.
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 25.5Estimated chance52%

Sets2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Lehecka's first-set record and serve make him the clear early favorite.
- Lehecka is 11-2 in first sets in hard best-of-three matches.
- Lehecka wins 79.4% of first-serve points on hard.
- Kym is 7-4 in first sets on hard.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonJiri LeheckaEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Lehecka's second-set record and straight-set wins point to him controlling the second set more often.
- Lehecka is 8-5 in second sets in hard best-of-three matches.
- Lehecka has seven 2-0 wins in 13 hard best-of-three matches.
- Kym is 7-4 in second sets on hard.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonJiri LeheckaEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.30
The read
Kym's recent matches often go the distance, and Lehecka has shown some three-set outcomes.
- Kym's hard best-of-three matches average 2.55 sets, with four 2-1 wins and two 1-2 losses.
- Lehecka has three 2-1 wins and two 1-2 losses in 13 hard best-of-three matches.
- Kym just played a three-set match against Shelton.
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance52%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Kym's serve-and-return profile produces close sets, making at least one tiebreak likely.
- Kym has a tiebreak in 7 of 11 hard best-of-three matches.
- Lehecka has a tiebreak in 4 of 13 hard best-of-three matches.
- Kym's latest match against Shelton had two tiebreaks.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players serve enough aces for the combined total to clear 17.5.
- Kym averages 10.1 aces per hard match; Lehecka averages 8.9.
- The combined average is about 19 aces.
- Kym has 101 aces in 10 hard matches; Lehecka has 116 in 13.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 17.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Kym's double-fault rate gives the combined total a good chance to pass 4.5.
- Kym averages 3.8 double faults per hard match; Lehecka averages 1.4.
- The combined average is about 5.2 double faults.
- Kym has 38 double faults in 10 hard matches.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 4.5Estimated chance58%

Prediction history

Jiri Lehecka: 10/14 recent winner projections matched

10 of 14 comparable winner projections favouring Jiri Lehecka matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Jiri Lehecka14 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

30 Jul·ATP Los Cabos

#12Jiri Lehecka1-2#108Chak Lam Coleman Wong

BetBugsJiri Lehecka to win·78%

Missed

30 Jul 2026

ATP Los Cabos

#12Jiri Lehecka1-2#108Chak Lam Coleman Wong

Jiri Lehecka to win

78%probability

Chak Lam Coleman Wong won

Missed

2 Jul·ATP Wimbledon

#14Jiri Lehecka3-0#101Alex Molcan

BetBugsJiri Lehecka to win·78%

Matched

2 Jul 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#14Jiri Lehecka3-0#101Alex Molcan

Jiri Lehecka to win

78%probability

Jiri Lehecka won

Matched

30 Jun·ATP Wimbledon

#14Jiri Lehecka3-0#100Alexei Popyrin

BetBugsJiri Lehecka to win·78%

Matched

30 Jun 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#14Jiri Lehecka3-0#100Alexei Popyrin

Jiri Lehecka to win

78%probability

Jiri Lehecka won

Matched

18 Jun·ATP London

#104Rinky Hijikata2-1#12Jiri Lehecka

BetBugsJiri Lehecka to win·65%

Missed

18 Jun 2026

ATP London

#104Rinky Hijikata2-1#12Jiri Lehecka

Jiri Lehecka to win

65%probability

Rinky Hijikata won

Missed

12 Jun·ATP Stuttgart

#12Jiri Lehecka2-0#26Frances Tiafoe

BetBugsJiri Lehecka to win·62%

Matched

12 Jun 2026

ATP Stuttgart

#12Jiri Lehecka2-0#26Frances Tiafoe

Jiri Lehecka to win

62%probability

Jiri Lehecka won

Matched

Previous match context available

Jerome Kym

11W 4L

6-3 6-7(4) 7-6(1)#4Ben Shelton

7-6(1) 6-4#61Arthur Rinderknech

7-6(2) 7-6(3)#195Mika Brunold

6-1 6-3#345Ugo Blanchet

7-6(6) 7-6(3)#134Clement Chidekh

6-7(5) 6-3 7-6(5)#208Edas Butvilas

6-2 4-6 6-2#97Toby Samuel

3-6 7-5 6-1#378Tiago Torres

4-6 6-3 7-6(3)#219Remy Bertola

7-6(2) 2-6 6-4#218Colton Smith

6-0 6-3#405Dan Added

6-4 7-6(4)#164Tom Gentzsch

6-1 7-6(4)#150Elmer Moller

6-3 7-6(4)#229Lorenzo Giustino

6-3 7-6(4)#215Max Houkes

Jiri Lehecka

11W 4L

7-5 6-4#60Daniel Altmaier 7-5 7-6(2)#140Stan Wawrinka 4-6 6-4 6-3#50Tallon Griekspoor

6-4 6-2#55Raphael Collignon

4-6 7-6(2) 6-4#11Rafael Jodar

6-3 3-6 6-3#52Nuno Borges

7-6(4) 6-4#3Carlos Alcaraz

6-4 6-2#31Valentin Vacherot

6-1 6-1#56Adolfo Daniel Vallejo

5-7 6-4 6-4#35Ugo Humbert

6-3 6-7(3) 6-3#39Zizou Bergs

6-3 7-5#18Learner Tien

6-4 6-4#4Ben Shelton

2-6 6-1 7-6(3) 6-1#33Stefanos Tsitsipas

6-4 6-2 6-4#97Toby Samuel

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

JKJerome KymKym

Last 15

3–4

9 core stats · 2 even

Jiri LeheckaLeheckaJL

Jiri Lehecka carries the stronger recent form — Jerome Kym's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 0–4 · 1 even

1st Serve In14/15 · 13/1560.6%+0.8pp61.4%

1st Serve Won14/15 · 13/1576.6%+2.8pp79.4%

2nd Serve Won14/15 · 13/1553.6%+4.0pp57.6%

Aces / Match14/15 · 13/159.0—8.9

Double Faults / Match14/15 · 13/153.42.0 fewer1.4

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won14/15 · 13/1537.9%+1.2pp36.7%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted14/15 · 13/1545.2%+10.1pp35.1%

Break Pts Saved14/15 · 13/1562.7%+8.4pp54.3%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won14/15 · 13/1552.9%—52.8%

Serve · 0–4 · 1 even

60.6%1st Serve In14/15 · 13/15+0.8pp61.4%

76.6%1st Serve Won14/15 · 13/15+2.8pp79.4%

53.6%2nd Serve Won14/15 · 13/15+4.0pp57.6%

9.0Aces / Match14/15 · 13/15—8.9

3.4Double Faults / Match14/15 · 13/152.0 fewer1.4

Return · 1–0

37.9%Return Pts Won14/15 · 13/15+1.2pp36.7%

Pressure · 2–0

45.2%Break Pts Converted14/15 · 13/15+10.1pp35.1%

62.7%Break Pts Saved14/15 · 13/15+8.4pp54.3%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

52.9%Total Pts Won14/15 · 13/15—52.8%

Jerome Kym

Jiri Lehecka

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 2.5

Jerome Kym

Jiri Lehecka -4.5

Jiri Lehecka

Result1 of 1 landed

Games2 of 4 landed

Sets2 of 3 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Jerome Kym

Jiri Lehecka

Stat Battle