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Predictions graded

Simona Waltert #125Switzerland0Jil Teichmann #171Switzerland2

Sets 5-7 · 2-6Tue 27 Oct 2026, 03:05 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions8–189%

Edges4–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageSimona Waltert · 46 places

Simona Waltert

Switzerland

Swiss right-hander, born 13 December 2000. Her reported career-high singles ranking was No. 81 in February 2026.

Current ranking: #125
Peak ranking: #81 · 2026
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Carpet
Hand: Right handed
Height: 176 cm

Jil Teichmann

Switzerland

Swiss left-hander and former top-25 player whose preferred surface is clay, currently ranked No. 179. She has not competed since late June 2026 and has been preparing for a comeback.

Current ranking: #171
Peak ranking: #21
Current age: 29
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Left handed
Height: 170 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 26 Oct 2026, 03:38 · Europe/Bucharest

Ranking says Waltert, recent hard-court form and two head-to-head wins say Teichmann, and neither arrives on a good result.

Teichmann to win the match at 1.95 and to take the first set at 1.9 both offer something at those prices; Waltert's 1.85 is not justified, and Under 23.5 games at 1.6 and Under 2.5 sets at 1.5 ask too much.

Context

The two wins came in different shapes, a straight-set victory in 2019 and a comeback from a set down in 2025, so the head-to-head is a tiebreaker rather than a guarantee. Waltert did take a set in the more recent meeting, which keeps the matchup from looking one-sided.
- 18 July 2025: Teichmann won 5-7 6-1 7-5 after losing the opening set.
Free points on serve matter in a first-round match where break chances are likely to decide the sets. Waltert also won only 43.8% of second-serve points across those 15 matches, so the double faults sit alongside a wider second-serve problem. A 15-match window is a small sample and does not guarantee a repeat.
- Last 15 matches: 98 double faults (6.5 per match).
- Last 15 matches: 34 aces (2.3 per match).
- Last 15 matches: second-serve points won 43.8% (219 of 500).
It is the freshest evidence of Waltert's level and the only match in this sample against a top-60 opponent. Her hard-court record in the wider window is 4-6 with 47.9% of games won, so one competitive loss is a counterpoint rather than a form turnaround.
- 17 October 2026: lost 4-6 6-3 3-6 to Anhelina Kalinina (ranked 51); 13 games won, 15 lost.
One defeat does not undo a 4-2 hard-court record in a six-match window, and this is a single result rather than a sign of anything lasting. It does mean Teichmann arrives on a loss to a lower-ranked opponent, while Waltert also lost her latest match.
- 16 October 2026, indoor hard: lost 2-6 4-6 to Lucie Havlickova (ranked 181); six games won, 12 lost.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Total SetswonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Under 2.5

1.50fair 1.79

BetBugs 56% · Market 66.7%

−10.7ppshort

Straight-set finishes have been the more common result for both players in this sample.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.95
The read
Teichmann has served more reliably on hard and has beaten Waltert in both previous meetings, which makes her the clearer favourite despite the lower ranking.
- 10-5 in her last 15 matches; 4-2 on hard with 52.9% of games won
- 64.3% of sets won on hard with 66.2% first serves in
- Won both previous meetings with Waltert (2025 and 2019)
- Waltert has won 47.9% of games on hard and 43.3% of second-serve points
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonJil TeichmannEstimated chance60%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Both players' recent hard-court matches sit at or below this line, and a two-set finish is the more likely result.
- Waltert's hard matches average 23.6 total games
- Teichmann's hard matches average 22.7
- The projected scorelines are straight-set finishes 56% of the time
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 23.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Waltert's games are close to level with Teichmann's, so a small head start is worth a slight edge.
- Waltert's hard-court game margin is minus 10 over ten matches, near level
- Teichmann's average hard-court margin is about plus 1.3 games per match
- Waltert covered this line in three of her last six completed matches
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostSimona Waltert +1.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
First-set games sit right around ten for both players, which slightly favours the over.
- Waltert's first sets average 10.0 games on hard
- Teichmann's first sets average 9.8
- Neither player has had a first-set tiebreak in this sample
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance53%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.90
The read
Teichmann has started sets strongly on hard while Waltert has lost more first sets than she has won.
- Won five of six first sets on hard this sample
- Averages 5.5 games to 4.3 in first sets on hard
- Waltert has lost six of ten first sets on hard
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonJil TeichmannEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets have been even for both players, so Teichmann gets only a small share of the edge she holds overall.
- Second sets on hard: 3-3 for Teichmann
- Averages 5.2 second-set games to 4.8
- Waltert is 5-5 in second sets on hard
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonJil TeichmannEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Straight-set finishes have been the more common result for both players in this sample.
- Waltert went to a third set in 5 of 10 hard matches
- Teichmann went to a third set in 2 of 6
- Combined 7 of 16 matches reached a decider
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance56%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tiebreaks have been rare in both players' hard-court matches in this sample.
- 2 of Waltert's 10 hard matches had a tiebreak
- 0 of Teichmann's 6 hard matches had one
- Combined 2 of 16 matches, about one in eight
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Waltert's serve has been error-prone on hard and the combined rate clears the line.
- Waltert averages 7.7 double faults per hard match
- Teichmann averages 3.3
- Combined average of 11.0 against a line of 9.5
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Waltert's serve supplies most of the aces and the combined rate sits just above the line.
- Waltert averages 3.0 aces per hard match
- Teichmann averages 0.8
- Combined average of 3.8 against a line of 3.5
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 3.5Estimated chance53%

Prediction history

Jil Teichmann: 4/6 recent winner projections matched

4 of 6 comparable winner projections favouring Jil Teichmann matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Jil Teichmann6 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

24 Jun·WTA Wimbledon

#180Bianca Andreescu2-1#126Jil Teichmann

BetBugsJil Teichmann to win·58%

Missed

24 Jun 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#180Bianca Andreescu2-1#126Jil Teichmann

Jil Teichmann to win

58%probability

Bianca Andreescu won

Missed

19 Jun·WTA Figueira da Foz

#108Darja Vidmanova2-1#130Jil Teichmann

BetBugsJil Teichmann to win·58%

Missed

19 Jun 2026

WTA Figueira da Foz

#108Darja Vidmanova2-1#130Jil Teichmann

Jil Teichmann to win

58%probability

Darja Vidmanova won

Missed

17 Jun·WTA Figueira da Foz

#326Barbora Palicova1-2#130Jil Teichmann

BetBugsJil Teichmann to win·72%

Matched

17 Jun 2026

WTA Figueira da Foz

#326Barbora Palicova1-2#130Jil Teichmann

Jil Teichmann to win

72%probability

Jil Teichmann won

Matched

16 Jun·WTA Figueira da Foz

#283Matilde Jorge0-2#130Jil Teichmann

BetBugsJil Teichmann to win·78%

Matched

16 Jun 2026

WTA Figueira da Foz

#283Matilde Jorge0-2#130Jil Teichmann

Jil Teichmann to win

78%probability

Jil Teichmann won

Matched

27 May·WTA Roland Garros

#170Jil Teichmann2-0#46Magdalena Frech

BetBugsJil Teichmann to win·55%

Matched

27 May 2026

WTA Roland Garros

#170Jil Teichmann2-0#46Magdalena Frech

Jil Teichmann to win

55%probability

Jil Teichmann won

Matched

Head-to-Head

0-2 (2 meetings)

L5-7 6-1 7-5Simona Waltert#125vJil Teichmann#171Jul 18, 2025

L6-3 6-3Simona Waltert#125vJil Teichmann#171Jul 18, 2019

2 total meetings

Simona Waltert

6W 9L

6-4 3-6 6-3#51Anhelina Kalinina

5-7 6-4 6-0#115Himeno Sakatsume

6-3 6-2#254Linda Klimovicova

6-2 6-2#581Melisa Ercan

6-3 6-1#182Erika Andreeva

3-6 7-6(4) 6-3#261Anastasia Tikhonova

6-2 6-2#153Dalma Galfi

2-6 6-1 6-3#193Despina Papamichail

7-6(4) 3-6 6-2#165Rebeka Masarova

4-6 7-6(5) 6-3#205Nadia Podoroska

7-5 6-3#209Fiona Crawley

6-3 6-2#4Jessica Pegula

5-7 6-4 6-2#78Petra Marcinko

5-7 6-4 7-6(3)#52Mayar Sherif

6-1 6-4#128Katarzyna Kawa

Jil Teichmann

10W 5L

6-2 6-4#181Lucie Havlickova

6-4 7-5#135Lucia Bronzetti

6-3 7-5#327Tessa Johanna Brockmann

6-7(4) 6-1 6-4#132Bianca Vanessa Andreescu

7-6(2) 6-4#165Rebeka Masarova

4-6 6-3 6-2#93Darja Vidmanova

6-4 4-6 6-3#191Barbora Palicova

7-5 6-1#247Matilde Jorge

6-3 6-2#3Mirra Andreeva

6-1 7-5#7Karolina Muchova

7-5 6-4#47Magdalena Frech

6-4 6-4#43Liudmila Samsonova

7-6(2) 6-3#78Petra Marcinko

6-1 5-7 7-6(6)#253Yasmine Kabbaj

6-3 6-4#64Alycia Parks

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

SWSimona WaltertWaltert

Last 15

1–6

9 core stats · 2 even

Jil TeichmannTeichmannJT

Jil Teichmann carries the stronger recent form — Simona Waltert's route runs through serve.

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

1st Serve In58.8%+7.6pp66.4%

1st Serve Won62.5%—61.9%

2nd Serve Won43.8%+8.4pp52.2%

Aces / Match2.3+1.40.9

Double Faults / Match6.53.3 fewer3.2

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won43.3%—43.2%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted41.0%+1.1pp42.1%

Break Pts Saved53.1%+6.0pp59.1%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won49.1%+1.7pp50.8%

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

58.8%1st Serve In+7.6pp66.4%

62.5%1st Serve Won—61.9%

43.8%2nd Serve Won+8.4pp52.2%

2.3Aces / Match+1.40.9

6.5Double Faults / Match3.3 fewer3.2

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

43.3%Return Pts Won—43.2%

Pressure · 0–2

41.0%Break Pts Converted+1.1pp42.1%

53.1%Break Pts Saved+6.0pp59.1%

Points · 0–1

49.1%Total Pts Won+1.7pp50.8%