Jil Teichmann #170Switzerland22 – 0Magdalena Frech #46Poland0

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.20

The read

Teichmann's superior clay-court pedigree and recent form on the surface, including a top-30 win, give her a slight edge over Frech, who has struggled on clay this season.

• Teichmann is 7-5 on clay in 2026, including a straight-set win over No. 20 Samsonova in R1 of Roland Garros.
• Frech is 2-4 on clay in 2026, with losses to players ranked outside the top 50.
• Teichmann has won 4 of her last 5 matches, all on clay, with the only loss to a top-60 player.
• Teichmann's career clay win percentage is 61% (216-138), significantly higher than Frech's 52% (168-155).

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.83

The read

With both players showing competitive recent matches and a history of long games in their lone H2H, this match is likely to exceed 21.5 total games.

• Teichmann's last 5 matches have averaged 21.6 games per match.
• Frech's last 5 matches have averaged 22.8 games per match.
• Their only H2H meeting (2023, grass) had 32 games.
• Both players have break-point conversion rates around 47%, indicating competitive return games.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

The first set is likely to be tightly contested, with both players holding serve effectively, pushing the total games over 9.5.

• Teichmann's last 5 first sets have averaged 10.2 games.
• Frech's last 5 first sets have averaged 10.4 games.
• Both players have first-serve win percentages around 63%, limiting quick breaks.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91

The read

Teichmann's strong form and Frech's struggles on clay make it likely that Teichmann will at least keep the match close, covering the +1.5 game handicap.

• Teichmann has covered a +1.5 game handicap in 4 of her last 5 matches.
• Frech has failed to cover a -1.5 game handicap in 3 of her last 5 matches.
• Teichmann's recent wins have been by margins of 4, 4, and 5 games.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

The second set could see more breaks due to weaker second serves, but the overall competitiveness suggests a total over 9.5 games.

• Teichmann's last 5 second sets have averaged 9.8 games.
• Frech's last 5 second sets have averaged 9.6 games.
• Both players have similar second-serve win percentages (47% vs 46%), which can lead to extended games.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Teichmann's strong start in recent matches and high first-set win conversion rate suggest she is likely to take the opening set against Frech, who has been slow out of the blocks lately.

• Teichmann has won the first set in 4 of her last 5 matches.
• Frech has lost the first set in 3 of her last 5 matches.
• Teichmann's first-set win conversion rate is 86% for her career.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have low ace rates, and on clay, the total aces are likely to stay under 6.5.

• Teichmann's ace rate is 2.8% (career 1018 aces in 618 matches).
• Frech's ace rate is 3.2% (career 1449 aces in 794 matches).
• In their H2H, they combined for 6 aces in a three-set match.
• Clay courts typically reduce ace counts.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Teichmann's higher double-fault rate and the historical H2H data suggest the total double faults could exceed 7.5.

• Teichmann's double-fault rate is 4.6% (career 1642 DFs in 618 matches).
• Frech's double-fault rate is 3.4% (career 1520 DFs in 794 matches).
• In their H2H, they combined for 9 double faults.
• Pressure situations on clay can lead to more double faults.