MexicoATP Los CabosFinished

Predictions graded

Chak Lam Coleman Wong #108Hong Kong SAR China2Jenson Brooksby #77United States0

Sets 6-1 · 7-5Fri 31 Jul 2026, 02:00 Predictions gradedQuarter-FinalHard

Predictions2–625%

Edges1–420%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageJenson Brooksby · 31 places

Chak Lam Coleman Wong

Hong Kong SAR China

Reached career-high No. 108 on 8 June 2026 after winning his first Challenger title in Jiujiang. His Los Cabos run is his third ATP Tour quarterfinal of 2026.

Current ranking: #108
Peak ranking: #108 · 2026
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Jenson Brooksby

United States

Reached career-high No. 33 on 13 June 2022 and won his first ATP Tour title in Houston in 2025. His return followed surgeries on both wrists and an extended absence.

Current ranking: #77
Peak ranking: #33 · 2022
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 193 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 30 Jul 2026, 15:31 · Europe/Bucharest

Brooksby's fresher legs, superior return game, and 1-0 H2H edge on hard courts make him the rightful favorite, but Wong's upset of Lehecka shows he can compete.

The best betting value is on Wong +2.5 games and over 22.5 total games, as the match is likely to be closer than the odds suggest.

Context

Wong's last match was a 1-6 6-3 6-4 win over Lehecka, lasting over two hours.
- Brooksby's two matches this week were straight-set wins (6-4 6-4 and 6-3 6-4).
- Wong has played five sets in the tournament, Brooksby only four.
Brooksby's last 15 hard-court return points won: 46.7% (2 matches tracked).
- Wong's last 15 hard-court return points won: 34.9% (7 matches tracked).
- Brooksby also leads overall last-15 return points won (37.9% vs 32.5%).
H2H: Brooksby won 6-2 6-4 on hard court in February 2025.
- Brooksby won 42% of return points in that match, while Wong won only 32%.
- Brooksby's second-serve win rate was 72% compared to Wong's 48%.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Brooksby's superior return game and H2H win on hard court give him a slight edge, despite Wong's recent top-12 upset.
- Brooksby leads H2H 1-0 on hard court (6-2 6-4 in Feb 2025).
- Brooksby's last 15 hard-court stats: 100% win rate (2-0), 61.5% games won, 46.7% return points won.
- Wong's last 15 hard-court stats: 71.4% win rate (5-2), 54.4% games won, 34.9% return points won.
- Brooksby's overall last-15 return points won (37.9%) edges Wong's (32.5%).
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostJenson BrooksbyEstimated chance58%

Games2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
With both players in solid form and no dominant server, a close match likely exceeds 21.5 games.
- Wong's last 15 hard-court matches averaged 19.1 games; Brooksby's 2 hard-court matches averaged 19.5 games.
- Both players have competitive recent form, with Wong pushing Lehecka to three sets.
- H2H match had 18 games, but current form suggests tighter sets.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.95
The read
Wong is expected to keep the match close, covering a +2.5 game handicap even in a loss.
- Wong's last 15 hard-court matches: 5-2 record, 54.4% games won.
- Brooksby's last 15 hard-court matches: 2-0 record, 61.5% games won (small sample).
- Wong pushed world No. 12 Lehecka to three sets, showing competitiveness.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonChak Lam Coleman Wong +2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The first set is likely to be competitive, with a good chance of reaching 10 games.
- Brooksby's two hard-court first sets this week: 6-4, 6-3 (10 and 9 games).
- Wong's recent hard-court first sets: 1-6, 6-3, 3-6, 6-2, 3-6 (average 9.4 games).
- Both players have break-point opportunities; Wong saved 63.9% BPs in last 15 overall.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second set is expected to be tight, with a slight lean toward over 9.5 games.
- Brooksby's second sets this week: 6-4, 6-4 (10 games each).
- Wong's recent hard-court second sets: 6-3, 6-4, 5-7, 6-4, 6-7 (average 9.8 games).
- Both players have shown ability to hold serve under pressure.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Brooksby's strong start in this tournament and elite first-set conversion rate suggest he may edge the opener.
- Brooksby won first set in both hard-court matches this week (6-4, 6-3).
- Wong lost first set 1-6 vs Lehecka but won first set in his other recent hard-court matches.
- Brooksby's career first-set win conversion is 90%.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostJenson BrooksbyEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have low double-fault rates on hard court, making under 4.5 likely.
- Wong averages 2.6 double faults per hard-court match in last 15.
- Brooksby averages 0.5 double faults per hard-court match in last 15.
- Combined average: 3.1 double faults per match.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsUnder 4.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Wong's ace count alone could push the total over 8.5, even with Brooksby's low ace rate.
- Wong averages 8.7 aces per match on hard court in last 15.
- Brooksby averages only 2.5 aces on hard court in last 15.
- Combined average aces: 11.2 per match.
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 8.5Estimated chance55%

Prediction history

Jenson Brooksby has been highly reliable when projected to win

Jenson Brooksby has fulfilled 3 of 4 win predictions. The average estimated probability was 61%, with 2.4 expected wins, indicating he has outperformed expectations. The only miss came as an away favorite against Zhizhen Zhang, while all three home and away wins were secured in straight sets.

Recent evidence for Jenson Brooksby4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

30 Jul·ATP Los Cabos

#391Edward Winter0-2#77Jenson Brooksby

BetBugsJenson Brooksby to win·62%

Matched

30 Jul 2026

ATP Los Cabos

#391Edward Winter0-2#77Jenson Brooksby

Jenson Brooksby to win

62%probability

Jenson Brooksby won

Matched

29 Jun·ATP Wimbledon

#103Aleksandar Vukic0-3#67Jenson Brooksby

BetBugsJenson Brooksby to win·62%

Matched

29 Jun 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#103Aleksandar Vukic0-3#67Jenson Brooksby

Jenson Brooksby to win

62%probability

Jenson Brooksby won

Matched

23 Jun·ATP Eastbourne

#73Jenson Brooksby2-0#98Aleksandar Vukic

BetBugsJenson Brooksby to win·58%

Matched

23 Jun 2026

ATP Eastbourne

#73Jenson Brooksby2-0#98Aleksandar Vukic

Jenson Brooksby to win

58%probability

Jenson Brooksby won

Matched

9 Jun·ATP 's-Hertogenbosch

#224Zhizhen Zhang2-1#63Jenson Brooksby

BetBugsJenson Brooksby to win·62%

Missed

9 Jun 2026

ATP 's-Hertogenbosch

#224Zhizhen Zhang2-1#63Jenson Brooksby

Jenson Brooksby to win

62%probability

Zhizhen Zhang won

Missed

Head-to-Head

0-1 (1 meetings)

L6-2 6-4Chak Lam Coleman Wong#108vJenson Brooksby#77Feb 25, 2025

1 total meetings

Chak Lam Coleman Wong

7W 8L

1-6 6-3 6-4#12Jiri Lehecka

6-3 6-4#226Darwin Blanch

6-3 7-5#563Jeff Wolf

6-2 6-4#529Spencer Johnson

6-3 7-6(2)#529Spencer Johnson

7-5 7-6(5)#489Anton Shepp

6-2 6-2#357Tung-Lin Wu

7-6(10) 6-2#164Borna Gojo

7-5 3-6 6-1#163Billy Harris

3-6 6-4 6-3#238James McCabe

6-4 7-5#300Filippo Romano

7-6(5) 7-6(10)#433Oliver Tarvet

6-3 6-4 6-2#32Alexander Blockx

6-4 3-6 6-3#157Juan Carlos Prado Angelo

7-5 2-6 6-1#154Zdenek Kolar

Jenson Brooksby

6W 9L

6-3 6-4#391Edward Winter

6-4 6-4#57Corentin Moutet

6-4 6-3 6-4#1Jannik Sinner

6-2 6-2 6-3#34Ignacio Buse

7-6(7) 6-1 6-1#105Aleksandar Vukic

6-3 6-2#29Ugo Humbert

7-5 6-1#105Aleksandar Vukic

6-0 6-4#20Francisco Cerundolo

6-4 3-6 6-3#104Martin Damm

7-6(4) 5-7 6-1#156Zhizhen Zhang

6-4 6-4 6-4#44Mariano Navone

6-3 7-5#13Casper Ruud

6-2 7-5#74Alex Molcan

6-3 7-6(8)#53Sebastian Baez

6-3 7-5#97Emilio Nava

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

CWChak Lam Coleman WongWong

Last 15

4–3

9 core stats · 2 even

Jenson BrooksbyBrooksbyJB

Chak Lam Coleman Wong carries the stronger recent form — Jenson Brooksby's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In60.7%+7.8pp68.5%

1st Serve Won75.1%+9.6pp65.5%

2nd Serve Won49.5%—49.6%

Aces / Match9.3+6.42.9

Double Faults / Match2.31.3 fewer1.0

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won32.5%+5.4pp37.9%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted42.6%+4.3pp38.3%

Break Pts Saved63.9%+10.1pp53.8%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won49.1%—49.1%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

60.7%1st Serve In+7.8pp68.5%

75.1%1st Serve Won+9.6pp65.5%

49.5%2nd Serve Won—49.6%

9.3Aces / Match+6.42.9

2.3Double Faults / Match1.3 fewer1.0

Return · 0–1

32.5%Return Pts Won+5.4pp37.9%

Pressure · 2–0

42.6%Break Pts Converted+4.3pp38.3%

63.9%Break Pts Saved+10.1pp53.8%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

49.1%Total Pts Won—49.1%

Chak Lam Coleman Wong #108Hong Kong SAR China2Jenson Brooksby #77United States0

Player Profiles

Chak Lam Coleman Wong

Jenson Brooksby

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 22.5

Chak Lam Coleman Wong +2.5

Jenson Brooksby 2-0

Jenson Brooksby 2-1

Jenson Brooksby

BetBugs probabilities

Result0 of 1 landed

Games2 of 4 landed

Sets0 of 1 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Jenson Brooksby has been highly reliable when projected to win

Head-to-Head

Chak Lam Coleman Wong

Jenson Brooksby

Stat Battle