Kyrian Jacquet #130France22 – 0Goncalo Da Rosa CastroPortugal0

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.03

The read

Jacquet's massive ranking and experience gap, combined with Da Rosa Castro's complete lack of clay-court data, makes Jacquet a heavy favorite.

• Jacquet is ranked 130, while Da Rosa Castro is unranked and has only played 19 career matches.
• Jacquet has a 60% clay win rate in last 15 (3-2), with wins over top-200 opponents; Da Rosa Castro has never played a clay match professionally.
• Da Rosa Castro's last 15 matches are all on hard courts, with a 40% win rate against mostly unranked opponents.
• Jacquet's first-serve points won on clay in last 15 is 68%, and he saves 45% of break points; Da Rosa Castro's hard-court first-serve points won is 64%.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Given the skill disparity and Da Rosa Castro's inexperience on clay, a quick straight-sets win with few games is likely.

• Jacquet's last 5 clay matches averaged 19.8 total games, with three of five finishing under 20.5.
• Da Rosa Castro's hard-court matches in the last 15 averaged 21.4 total games, but against stronger opposition he often loses in straight sets with low game counts.
• Jacquet's return points won on clay is 35.6%, and he converts 39.1% of break points, suggesting he can break Da Rosa Castro's serve frequently.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Jacquet's ability to dominate on clay and Da Rosa Castro's weak serve suggest a comfortable cover of the -5.5 game handicap.

• Jacquet's average game margin in his last 5 clay wins is +6.4 games.
• Da Rosa Castro's average game margin in his last 5 losses is -6.2 games.
• Jacquet's return game is strong enough to create multiple breaks against a player with a 40% second-serve win rate.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Jacquet's strong starts and Da Rosa Castro's slow beginnings point to a quick first set with few games.

• Jacquet's average first-set games in his last 5 clay matches is 9.2, with three sets finishing under 9.5.
• Da Rosa Castro has lost the first set 6-2 or worse in 4 of his last 10 matches.
• Jacquet's first-set win rate on clay is 60%, often with a comfortable margin.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

If Jacquet wins the first set comfortably, the second set is likely to be similarly one-sided, keeping total games low.

• Jacquet's average second-set games in his last 5 clay wins is 8.8, with four sets finishing under 9.5.
• Da Rosa Castro's second-set performance often worsens after losing the first, with an average of 3.2 games won in second sets of losses.
• Jacquet's break-point conversion rate on clay is 39.1%, suggesting he can close out the match efficiently.

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.07

The read

Jacquet's strong first-set performance and Da Rosa Castro's tendency to start slowly against even weak opposition point to a comfortable opening set for the Frenchman.

• Jacquet has won 82% of first sets in his career when winning the match.
• Da Rosa Castro has lost the first set in 8 of his last 15 matches, including against low-ranked opponents.
• Jacquet's first-set win rate on clay in last 15 is 60% (3 of 5), with an average of 5.4 games won per first set.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Jacquet's dominance in straight-set wins and Da Rosa Castro's inability to push matches to a third set make a 2-0 result highly probable.

• Jacquet has won 8 of his last 10 matches in straight sets.
• Da Rosa Castro has lost 9 of his last 15 matches in straight sets, including against players ranked outside the top 500.
• Jacquet's clay-court record in 2026 is 6-4, with all wins coming in straight sets.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

The match is expected to be one-sided, with Jacquet winning in straight sets, so under 2.5 sets is the clear call.

• Jacquet has played only 2 three-set matches in his last 15, both on grass.
• Da Rosa Castro has played 5 three-set matches in his last 15, but all were against similarly unranked opponents.
• Jacquet's deciding-set win rate is 53%, but he rarely needs a third set against lower-ranked players.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

The expected one-sided nature of the match and Jacquet's strong serve on clay make a tiebreak unlikely.

• Jacquet has played only 2 tiebreaks in his last 5 clay matches.
• Da Rosa Castro has played 3 tiebreaks in his last 15 matches, all on hard courts.
• Jacquet's first-serve points won on clay is 68%, making it hard for Da Rosa Castro to push sets to tiebreaks.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

While clay typically suppresses aces, Jacquet's superior serve and Da Rosa Castro's poor return could push the total over 5.5.

• Jacquet averages 3.4 aces per match on clay in his last 15, but his career ace rate is higher.
• Da Rosa Castro averages only 1.2 aces per match on hard courts, but clay may reduce ace counts.
• Combined, their recent ace averages sum to 4.6, but Jacquet's serve can produce more against a weak returner.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Da Rosa Castro's high double-fault rate, especially under pressure from Jacquet's return, should push the total over 6.5.

• Da Rosa Castro averages 4.2 double faults per match on hard courts, and clay may exacerbate his serving issues.
• Jacquet averages 3.0 double faults per match on clay in his last 15.
• Combined, their recent double-fault averages sum to 7.2, with Da Rosa Castro's high rate being the main driver.