Andrea Guerrieri #229Italy00 – 2Kyrian Jacquet #136France2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.40

The read

Jacquet's superior serve and recent grass-court wins over stronger opposition give him a clear edge on this surface.

• Jacquet has a 4-2 grass record in 2026, including a win over Dimitrov (ranking 164) and a tight loss to Searle.
• Guerrieri is 2-1 on grass in 2026, with his only loss coming against Broom (ranking 274).
• Jacquet's serve stats are stronger: 4.8% ace rate vs 1.9%, and 68.1% first-serve points won vs 64.4%.
• Jacquet's recent form includes wins over higher-ranked opponents (Dimitrov, Onclin) and competitive losses.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.83

The read

Guerrieri's recent form indicates he can stay within 3.5 games against Jacquet, even in a loss.

• Guerrieri has covered a +3.5 game handicap in 4 of his last 5 matches.
• Jacquet's recent wins have often been by narrow margins, with only one blowout in his last 5.
• Guerrieri's competitive losses to higher-ranked players suggest he can keep it close.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.73

The read

Recent match lengths for both players suggest a competitive match likely to exceed 21.5 games.

• Guerrieri's last 5 matches have averaged 22.6 total games.
• Jacquet's last 5 matches have averaged 21.4 total games.
• Both players have been involved in tight sets recently, with multiple tiebreaks.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

The first set is likely to be close, with both players capable of holding serve on grass.

• Guerrieri's last 5 first sets have averaged 10.2 games.
• Jacquet's last 5 first sets have averaged 9.8 games.
• Both players have played multiple tiebreaks in recent first sets.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Similar to set 1, the second set is expected to be tight given both players' recent form.

• Guerrieri's last 5 second sets have averaged 9.6 games.
• Jacquet's last 5 second sets have averaged 9.4 games.
• Second sets have been competitive for both, often going to 10+ games.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50

The read

Jacquet's tendency to start fast and Guerrieri's occasional slow starts make Jacquet the favorite for set 1.

• Jacquet has won the first set in 4 of his last 5 matches.
• Guerrieri has lost the first set in 2 of his last 4 matches, including against lower-ranked opponents.
• Jacquet's first-set win conversion rate is 81% career, indicating strong starts.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Jacquet's strong serve on grass should generate enough aces to clear the 10.5 line, with some contribution from Guerrieri.

• Jacquet averages 4.8 aces per match, but on grass this number typically increases.
• Guerrieri averages only 1.9 aces per match, but Jacquet's ace rate alone could push the total over 10.5.
• In Jacquet's recent grass matches, he hit 7 aces against Boscardin Dias and 5 against Searle.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

The serve-oriented nature of grass and both players' recent tiebreak frequency make a tiebreak likely.

• Guerrieri has played a tiebreak in 4 of his last 10 matches.
• Jacquet has played a tiebreak in 5 of his last 10 matches.
• Both players have tiebreak win percentages around 50%, indicating they often reach tiebreaks.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

The combination of Guerrieri's high double-fault rate and the grass surface could lead to over 6.5 double faults.

• Guerrieri has a high double-fault rate of 5.4%.
• Jacquet's double-fault rate is 4.5%, but on grass, both players may take more risks on second serves.
• In recent matches, Guerrieri has averaged around 3 double faults per match, Jacquet around 2.