PortugalLisbon - PortugalFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Dali Blanch #325United States0Henrique Rocha #106Portugal2

Sets 4-6 · 5-7Mon 19 Oct 2026, 12:00 Predictions gradedFirst RoundClay

Predictions7–278%

Edges3–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageHenrique Rocha · 219 places

Dali Blanch

United States

American right-hander, age 23, with clay listed as his preferred surface. Reached a career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 284 in June 2026.

Current ranking: #325
Peak ranking: #284 · 2026
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Henrique Rocha

Portugal

Rocha reached a career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 118 on 20 April 2026. His 2026 ITF-recorded results are heavily concentrated on clay, where he held a 22-11 record through late July.

Current ranking: #106
Peak ranking: #118 · 2026
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 18 Oct 2026, 22:48 · Europe/Bucharest

Second seed Rocha, a week removed from a fifth Challenger title, meets alternate Blanch, who lost in Maia qualifying: Rocha should win, most likely in straight sets.

The quoted prices do not make that worthwhile. Rocha at 1.30, the first set at 1.40 and a 2-0 Rocha win at 1.80 all ask for more than the clay records justify.

Context

This is Rocha's only competitive outing between the Porto title and this first round, so the eight days before Lisbon contain more recovery than rhythm. Being broken while serving for the match at 5-4 and again at 6-5 is a specific closing-out pattern rather than a general form comment, and it happened in front of a home crowd in his birthplace. The counterpoint is that the Maia match was played on indoor clay while Lisbon is outdoors, and the gap of a week removes any fatigue carry-over from the three sets.
- Nagal won 3-6 7-5 7-6(5) in the Maia Open first round .
- Rocha served for the match at 5-4 and 6-5 in the deciding set and was broken both times.
- The match lasted 2h56m and eliminated the second seed in his home event.
- Maia is Rocha's birthplace and the tournament is staged in front of a home crowd.
ConfirmedSources checked 18 Oct 2026, 22:46 · Europe/Bucharest
Rocha's clay sample is four matches, so the first-set numbers are a pointer rather than a settled pattern.
Rocha took three of four opening sets in that window, so the first set is where his edge shows most clearly. He averaged 5.5 games won to 4.0 lost in first sets, a wider margin than in second sets at 5.5 to 5.0. The sample is four matches, and the one first set he dropped went 4-6 to Dusan Lajovic on 11 September.
- Rocha played four completed clay matches between 8 September and 12 October, winning three first sets and losing one.
- His first sets averaged 5.5 games won and 4.0 lost; second sets averaged 5.5 won and 5.0 lost.
- Two of the four matches finished 2-0, one 0-2 and one 1-2, with two matches containing a tiebreak.
Blanch has been a slow starter on clay this season whose second sets have held up noticeably better than his first.
Blanch's clay sets have run the opposite way round: eight first sets lost, eight second sets won across 13 matches. If he drops the opener, the record suggests he can still force a deciding set, which is why a quick two-set finish is not a given. His four 0-2 defeats show the recovery does not always arrive.
- Blanch lost eight of 13 first sets and won eight of 13 second sets in completed clay matches between 21 July and 11 October.
- His first sets averaged 4.08 games won to 4.92 lost; second sets averaged 5.0 won to 3.77 lost.
- Scorelines in that window were five 1-2 defeats, four 0-2 defeats and four 2-0 wins, with two matches containing a tiebreak.
This is the only public indication of how Blanch's team planned the week, and it frames Lisbon as a level-building tournament at the end of a long clay season rather than a points target. It fits the surrounding record of two Portuguese events without a main-draw win and an alternate place in this draw. The limitation is that a training plan and a stated aim to improve establish preparation only, not any competitive gain.
- Blanch's coach closed out two weeks of Portuguese events and scheduled training days before the Lisbon Challenger.
- The stated aim was to improve his level and reach the end of the season in better form.
ReportedSources checked 18 Oct 2026, 22:46 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Henrique Rocha

1.30fair 1.37

BetBugs 73% · Market 76.9%

−3.9ppshort

Rocha has the stronger ranking and recent clay title, while Blanch has struggled for wins on the surface.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Henrique Rocha

1.40fair 1.45

BetBugs 69% · Market 71.4%

−2.4ppshort

Rocha has started clay matches strongly, while Blanch has lost more first sets than he has won.

Set BettingwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Henrique Rocha 2-0

1.80fair 2.27

BetBugs 44% · Market 55.6%

−11.6ppshort

Rocha's ranking gap and straight-set clay wins make a 2-0 finish his most likely exact score.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Rocha has the stronger ranking and recent clay title, while Blanch has struggled for wins on the surface.
- Rocha is ranked 106, 219 places above Blanch at 325.
- Rocha won the Porto Open on clay on 4 October, his fifth Challenger title.
- Blanch is 4-9 on clay across his last 13 completed matches.
- Blanch entered the main draw as an alternate after losing in Maia qualifying.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonHenrique RochaEstimated chance73%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Rocha's longer clay matches and the chance of a third set lift the total above the line.
- Blanch's clay matches average 21.1 total games.
- Rocha's clay matches average 23.25 total games.
- Rocha's Maia loss to Nagal lasted 34 games.
- Blanch's last three clay matches lasted 27, 15 and 28 games.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 22.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Rocha's habit of winning the opening set points to several 6-3 or 6-4 finishes.
- Blanch's clay first sets average 9.0 total games.
- Rocha's clay first sets average 9.5 total games.
- Rocha won 3 of 4 first sets on clay.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Rocha's second sets have lasted longer on average, lifting the total just above the line.
- Rocha's clay second sets average 10.5 total games.
- Blanch's clay second sets average 8.77 total games.
- One of Rocha's four clay second sets reached a tiebreak.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.40
The read
Rocha has started clay matches strongly, while Blanch has lost more first sets than he has won.
- Rocha won 3 of 4 first sets on clay.
- Blanch lost 8 of 13 first sets on clay.
- Rocha's first-set game average is 5.5 won and 4.0 lost.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonHenrique RochaEstimated chance69%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Rocha's ranking and title form give him the better chance to take the second set.
- Rocha won 2 of 4 second sets on clay.
- Blanch lost 5 of 13 second sets on clay.
- Rocha is ranked 219 places above Blanch.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonHenrique RochaEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Rocha's ranking gap and straight-set wins make a two-set match more likely.
- Rocha won two of four clay matches in straight sets.
- Blanch has four 2-0 wins and four 0-2 losses among 13 clay matches.
- Rocha is ranked 106; Blanch is 325.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance58%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The combined clay ace rate falls well short of 9.5 per match.
- Blanch averages 4.2 aces per clay match.
- Rocha averages 2.5 aces per clay match.
- Their combined clay average is 6.7 aces per match.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 9.5Estimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tiebreaks have been uncommon in Blanch's clay matches and only slightly more frequent for Rocha.
- Blanch had only two tiebreaks in 13 clay matches.
- Rocha had two in four, but the sample is small.
- Both players win about 68% of first-serve points on clay.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance71%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The combined clay double-fault rate is comfortably below 5.5 per match.
- Blanch averages 2.7 double faults per clay match.
- Rocha averages 2.0 double faults per clay match.
- Their combined clay average is 4.7 per match.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 5.5Estimated chance63%

Prediction history

Henrique Rocha: 5/10 recent winner projections matched

5 of 10 comparable winner projections favouring Henrique Rocha matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Henrique Rocha10 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

13 Jul·ATP Umag

#105Damir Dzumhur2-0#122Henrique Rocha

BetBugsHenrique Rocha to win·58%

Missed

13 Jul 2026

ATP Umag

#105Damir Dzumhur2-0#122Henrique Rocha

Henrique Rocha to win

58%probability

Damir Dzumhur won

Missed

22 Jun·ATP Wimbledon

#122Henrique Rocha1-2#164Nicolas Mejia

BetBugsHenrique Rocha to win·62%

Missed

22 Jun 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#122Henrique Rocha1-2#164Nicolas Mejia

Henrique Rocha to win

62%probability

Nicolas Mejia won

Missed

15 Jun·Nottingham - Great Britain

#121Henrique Rocha0-2#156Christopher O'Connell

BetBugsHenrique Rocha to win·62%

Missed

15 Jun 2026

Nottingham - Great Britain

#121Henrique Rocha0-2#156Christopher O'Connell

Henrique Rocha to win

62%probability

Christopher O'Connell won

Missed

10 Jun·Ilkley - Great Britain

#121Henrique Rocha2-0#279Charles Broom

BetBugsHenrique Rocha to win·62%

Matched

10 Jun 2026

Ilkley - Great Britain

#121Henrique Rocha2-0#279Charles Broom

Henrique Rocha to win

62%probability

Henrique Rocha won

Matched

7 Jun·Perugia - Italy

#119Henrique Rocha2-0#86Daniel Merida Aguilar

BetBugsHenrique Rocha to win·55%

Matched

7 Jun 2026

Perugia - Italy

#119Henrique Rocha2-0#86Daniel Merida Aguilar

Henrique Rocha to win

55%probability

Henrique Rocha won

Matched

Dali Blanch

5W 10L

6-3 3-6 6-3#583Milos Karol

6-1 6-2#138Max Alcala Gurri

6-3 4-6 6-3#239Marvin Moeller

6-3 6-1#418Matthew William Donald

6-3 6-3#316Sandro Kopp

6-2 6-2#157Nikolas Sanchez-Izquierdo

6-2 1-6 6-2#434Ivan Gakhov

6-2 6-0—Jan Chlodnicki

6-3 3-6 6-1#287Genaro Alberto Olivieri

6-7(5) 7-6(2) 6-2#453Felipe Meligeni Alves

6-3 3-6 7-5#269Hugo Grenier

6-4 6-2#535Rudolf Molleker

6-4 7-6(3)#372Tommaso Compagnucci

6-2 6-2—Samuel Zannoni

6-7(3) 7-5 6-4#164Tom Gentzsch

Henrique Rocha

9W 6L

3-6 7-5 7-6(5)#253Sumit Nagal

2-6 6-4 6-4#175Inaki Montes-De La Torre

6-3 7-6(7)#236August Holmgren

6-2 6-0#286Mili Poljicak

7-5 6-3#276Cezar Cretu

6-4 6-4#148Dusan Lajovic

6-4 6-1#460Santiago Rodriguez Taverna

6-3 7-6(11)#361Carlos Taberner

2-6 6-2 7-6(10)#110Lloyd Harris

7-5 6-4#151Michael Mmoh

6-2 4-6 6-4#34Hubert Hurkacz

6-4 6-1#675Seongchan Hong

7-5 4-6 6-3#119Nicolas Mejia

6-4 7-6(6)#88Marcos Giron

6-3 7-6(3)#104Martin Damm

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

DBDali BlanchBlanch

Last 15

1–7

9 core stats · 1 even

Henrique RochaRochaHR

Henrique Rocha carries the stronger recent form — Dali Blanch's route runs through serve.

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

1st Serve In14/15 · 15/1556.4%+9.7pp66.1%

1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/1568.1%—68.2%

2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/1546.4%+10.0pp56.4%

Aces / Match14/15 · 15/155.4+1.24.2

Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/153.20.8 fewer2.4

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/1539.9%+1.1pp41.0%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/1540.0%+1.7pp41.7%

Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/1554.6%+5.4pp60.0%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/1549.1%+3.1pp52.2%

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

56.4%1st Serve In14/15 · 15/15+9.7pp66.1%

68.1%1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/15—68.2%

46.4%2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+10.0pp56.4%

5.4Aces / Match14/15 · 15/15+1.24.2

3.2Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/150.8 fewer2.4

Return · 0–1

39.9%Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+1.1pp41.0%

Pressure · 0–2

40.0%Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/15+1.7pp41.7%

54.6%Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/15+5.4pp60.0%

Points · 0–1

49.1%Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+3.1pp52.2%