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Predictions graded

Moise Kouame #201France0Nicolai Budkov Kjaer #152Norway2

Sets 4-6 · 2-6Thu 15 Oct 2026, 17:15 Predictions gradedSecond RoundI.hard

Predictions7–278%

Edges1–150%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageNicolai Budkov Kjaer · 49 places

Moise Kouame

France

French right-hander born in March 2009. The ITF lists a 25-13 professional record in 2026, with his stronger recorded win rate on hard courts than clay.

Current ranking: #201
Peak ranking: #211 · 2026
Current age: 17
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Norway

Structured profile lists him at No. 152 with a right-handed, two-handed-backhand game. Reliable public profile details for the remaining fields were not confirmed in this review.

Current ranking: #152
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 14 Oct 2026, 03:05 · Europe/Bucharest

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer, the sixth seed and world No. 152, meets 17-year-old home player Moise Kouame, who has just ended a three-match losing run, and the ranking gap tells only part of the story.

Budkov Kjaer is the likelier winner, but 1.6 asks more than his case supports and Kouame at 2.2 does not appeal either. Kouame to win 2-0 at 3.4 is the one price worth taking.

Context

Kouamé had not won a match since September before arriving in Roanne, so the first-round result is his first competitive win in about a month and it came without dropping a set. The match also carried a table stake: Dedura held the last qualifying place in the race for the season-ending Next Gen ATP Finals, and the win moved Kouamé ahead of him. That gives the 17-year-old both a form reset on indoor hard and a live position in a race that runs through the autumn Challenger swing.
- Beat Diego Dedura 6-1, 6-4 in the Roanne first round .
- The win ended a run of three consecutive defeats.
- Dedura occupied the final Next Gen ATP Finals qualifying place before the match; the win moved Kouamé ahead of him.
ConfirmedSources checked 14 Oct 2026, 03:03 · Europe/Bucharest
The 17-year-old has closed out matches cleanly when ahead, but he has not yet been tested in a deciding set on this surface in the sample.
Across 12 completed hard-court matches from 28 July to 13 October 2026, Kouame went 5-7. The five wins were all 2-0, with three 0-2 defeats and four 1-2 defeats, so no three-set win is recorded. In this best-of-three format that points to a short route if he wins, but it is a 12-match sample and says nothing about how he would handle a decider.
- Set evidence covers 12 completed hard-court matches, 28 July to 13 October 2026.
- Scorelines: five 2-0 wins, three 0-2 losses and four 1-2 losses; no three-set win.
- Set averages: 21.3 total games and 2.33 sets per match across the same 12 matches.
His serve has done a lot of the work, with 67.1% of first-serve points won, but the overall point count sits below even.
The supplied last-15 sample for Budkov Kjaer covers 14 hard-court matches and shows 1,048 of 2,118 total points won, or 49.5%. He is 7-7 in those matches despite the sub-50% figure, and his break-point conversion sits at 38.8% (40 of 103) while he saves 61.6% (61 of 99). That points to a player winning close matches rather than dominating them, so his edge in this second round rests on ranking and seeding more than on a lopsided point count.
- Last-15 hard-court metrics cover 14 matches, with 1,048 of 2,118 total points won (49.5%).
- Record in the same window: 7-7 on hard courts, 8-7 overall.
- Break points converted 40 of 103 (38.8%); saved 61 of 99 (61.6%).
The three titles show a 17-year-old already converting regularly at ITF level, which is how he reached the top 210 as a teenager. They also mark the level he is trying to translate onto the Challenger tour, where his autumn results have been less consistent than his title run earlier in the year. The step up in opponent quality at Roanne is the test this record sets up.
- Won M25 Santa Margherita di Pula 3, M15 Bressuire and M25 Hazebrouck in 2026.
- 2026 singles record: 31 wins and 20 losses.
ConfirmedSources checked 14 Oct 2026, 03:03 · Europe/BucharestFlashscorewww.flashscore.com · 14 Oct 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

1.60fair 1.79

BetBugs 56% · Market 62.5%

−6.5ppshort

He is the higher-ranked seed with steadier results and a solid serving base.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.60
The read
He is the higher-ranked seed with steadier results and a solid serving base.
- Budkov Kjaer is ranked No. 152 and is the sixth seed at Roanne.
- He is 7-7 on hard courts in the supplied sample, winning five of those in straight sets.
- He averages 4.1 aces, 2.2 double faults and 67.1% first-serve points won across 14 hard matches.
- He won his first round 6-4, 7-5 over qualifier Jakub Paul.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonNicolai Budkov KjaerEstimated chance56%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets have tended to finish just short of ten games.
- Kouame's second sets average 9.0 games across 12 hard matches.
- Budkov Kjaer's second sets average 9.5 across 14.
- Budkov Kjaer has just one second-set tiebreak in 14.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Budkov Kjaer's longer first sets nudge the line just above even.
- Budkov Kjaer's first sets average 10.5 games across 14 hard matches.
- Kouame's first sets average 8.7 games across 12.
- Three of Budkov Kjaer's 14 first sets reached a tiebreak.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The two totals sit either side of the line, so a long match is only slightly more likely.
- Budkov Kjaer's set evidence averages 23.7 total games across 14 hard matches.
- Kouame's set evidence averages 21.3 total games across 12 hard matches.
- Budkov Kjaer has had a tiebreak in 5 of 14 hard matches, Kouame in 2 of 12.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 22.5Estimated chance51%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The combined record shows most of these matches ending in two sets.
- Kouame's hard-court matches went to three sets in 4 of 12; Budkov Kjaer's in 5 of 14.
- Average sets per match: 2.33 for Kouame and 2.36 for Budkov Kjaer.
- Budkov Kjaer has five straight-set wins in the sample.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Budkov Kjaer starts slightly more reliably, helped by a stronger serve.
- Budkov Kjaer has won the opening set in 8 of 14 hard-court matches.
- His first sets average 10.5 games, with three tiebreaks in 14.
- Kouame has won the first set in 7 of 12.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonNicolai Budkov KjaerEstimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Budkov Kjaer's overall edge is small and second sets look near even.
- Budkov Kjaer has a 7-7 second-set record on hard courts.
- Kouame has won the second set in 7 of 12.
- Budkov Kjaer's second sets average 9.5 games.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonNicolai Budkov KjaerEstimated chance52%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
More of these matches have finished without a tiebreak than with one.
- Budkov Kjaer has had a tiebreak in 5 of 14 hard-court matches.
- Kouame has had a tiebreak in 2 of 12.
- Budkov Kjaer's first-serve points won is 67.1% across 14 hard matches.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance55%

Prediction history

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer: 5/12 recent winner projections matched

5 of 12 comparable winner projections favouring Nicolai Budkov Kjaer matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Nicolai Budkov Kjaer12 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

21 Jul·Tampere - Finland

#118Nicolai Budkov Kjaer0-2#269Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

BetBugsNicolai Budkov Kjaer to win·65%

Missed

21 Jul 2026

Tampere - Finland

#118Nicolai Budkov Kjaer0-2#269Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer to win

65%probability

Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg won

Missed

14 Jul·ATP Bastad

#118Nicolai Budkov Kjaer0-2#138Andrea Pellegrino

BetBugsNicolai Budkov Kjaer to win·58%

Missed

14 Jul 2026

ATP Bastad

#118Nicolai Budkov Kjaer0-2#138Andrea Pellegrino

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer to win

58%probability

Andrea Pellegrino won

Missed

25 Jun·ATP Wimbledon

#121Nicolai Budkov Kjaer1-3#137Otto Virtanen

BetBugsNicolai Budkov Kjaer to win·62%

Missed

25 Jun 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#121Nicolai Budkov Kjaer1-3#137Otto Virtanen

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer to win

62%probability

Otto Virtanen won

Missed

24 Jun·ATP Wimbledon

#121Nicolai Budkov Kjaer2-0#209Matej Dodig

BetBugsNicolai Budkov Kjaer to win·58%

Matched

24 Jun 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#121Nicolai Budkov Kjaer2-0#209Matej Dodig

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer to win

58%probability

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer won

Matched

22 Jun·ATP Wimbledon

#121Nicolai Budkov Kjaer2-1#237Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva

BetBugsNicolai Budkov Kjaer to win·72%

Matched

22 Jun 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#121Nicolai Budkov Kjaer2-1#237Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer to win

72%probability

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer won

Matched

Previous match context available

Moise Kouame

6W 9L

6-1 6-4#190Diego Dedura

6-1 6-4#98Adam Walton

6-4 6-0#133Alexandre Muller

2-6 6-3 6-4#266Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez

6-4 6-2#302Florent Bax

6-1 4-2 ret.#661Filip Peliwo

6-1 6-3#692Ryuki Matsuda

4-6 6-4 7-5#450Kenta Miyoshi

7-6(3) 4-6 6-3#139Nishesh Basavareddy

6-4 2-6 7-6(5)#356Moez Echargui

6-2 6-2#62Roman Andres Burruchaga

6-1 6-4#453Felipe Meligeni Alves

6-1 6-4#350Edward Winter

6-4 6-2#51Nuno Borges

6-4 6-4#280Max Hans Rehberg

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

8W 7L

6-4 7-5#869Jakub Paul

7-5 4-6 7-6(5)#198Felix Balshaw

6-3 6-2#509Yanis Ghazouani Durand

3-6 6-3 7-5#241Billy Harris

4-6 6-4 6-4#420Jie Cui

6-7(4) 6-2 6-4#72Titouan Droguet

6-7(2) 7-5 6-1#356Moez Echargui

6-1 7-6(7)#509Yanis Ghazouani Durand

6-4 6-4#198Felix Balshaw

6-3 6-1#149Mark Lajal

7-5 6-4#117Christopher O'Connell

7-6(2) 4-6 6-4#238Maks Kasnikowski

6-3 6-1#95Jesper De Jong

6-3 6-1#93Bu Yunchaokete

7-5 6-4#76Kyrian Jacquet

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MKMoise KouameKouame

Last 15

4–4

9 core stats · 1 even

Nicolai Budkov KjaerKjaerNK

Dead-even recent form — the edges are in serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In14/15 · 14/1556.1%+9.7pp65.8%

1st Serve Won14/15 · 14/1570.5%+3.4pp67.1%

2nd Serve Won14/15 · 14/1546.6%+4.4pp51.0%

Aces / Match14/15 · 14/154.9+0.84.1

Double Faults / Match14/15 · 14/155.43.2 fewer2.2

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won14/15 · 14/1538.8%+1.3pp37.5%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted14/15 · 14/1539.8%+1.0pp38.8%

Break Pts Saved14/15 · 14/1556.6%+5.0pp61.6%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won14/15 · 14/1549.6%—49.5%

Serve · 2–3

56.1%1st Serve In14/15 · 14/15+9.7pp65.8%

70.5%1st Serve Won14/15 · 14/15+3.4pp67.1%

46.6%2nd Serve Won14/15 · 14/15+4.4pp51.0%

4.9Aces / Match14/15 · 14/15+0.84.1

5.4Double Faults / Match14/15 · 14/153.2 fewer2.2

Return · 1–0

38.8%Return Pts Won14/15 · 14/15+1.3pp37.5%

Pressure · 1–1

39.8%Break Pts Converted14/15 · 14/15+1.0pp38.8%

56.6%Break Pts Saved14/15 · 14/15+5.0pp61.6%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

49.6%Total Pts Won14/15 · 14/15—49.5%

Moise Kouame

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Moise Kouame 2-0

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Result1 of 1 landed

Games2 of 3 landed

Sets3 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Moise Kouame

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Stat Battle