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Predictions graded

Luka Pavlovic #207France0Mattia Bellucci #86Italy2

Sets 4-6 · 4-6Thu 15 Oct 2026, 06:20 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions8–189%

Edges0–30%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMattia Bellucci · 121 places

Luka Pavlovic

France

French right-hander; reached career-high ATP singles No. 184 in July 2025. He qualified for his first Grand Slam main draw at Roland Garros in May 2026.

Current ranking: #207
Peak ranking: #184 · 2025
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 196 cm

Mattia Bellucci

Italy

Italian left-hander whose ATP career-high ranking is No. 63, achieved in July 2025. Official player profiles list hard as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #86
Peak ranking: #63 · 2025
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Carpet
Hand: Left handed
Height: 175 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 14 Oct 2026, 15:06 · Europe/Bucharest

World No.

86 Bellucci meets qualifier Pavlovic in the Jinan second round, with Bellucci the likely winner but the 1.15 quote on him asking far more than his form supports. The worthwhile quotes are all on Pavlovic: 4.75 to win the match, 3.3 for the first set and 3.5 for the second.

Context

Bellucci arrives in Jinan from the heaviest recent workload of either player: two Jingshan qualifying rounds plus a run to the final that ended in a deciding-set tie-break after he held two championship points. That run confirmed he is operating at Challenger-title level, and he followed it with a 6-2 6-1 first-round win over Elias Ymer, so there is no visible sign of fatigue. The limitation is the manner of the final loss, which came from a winning position against a player ranked outside the top 100.
- Held two championship points at 5-6 in the deciding set before Harris saved both and won the tie-break 7-4
- Won six consecutive matches without dropping a set after coming through qualifying, including a 6-4 6-4 semi-final win over Yanki Erel
- Second ATP Challenger final of the 2026 season
ConfirmedSources checked 14 Oct 2026, 15:05 · Europe/Bucharest
Pavlovic is the lower-ranked player in this match but has won three Jinan matches without dropping a set, including a first-round win over a higher-ranked opponent. That matters because Bellucci arrives from a long Jingshan run and a step down from ATP main-draw tennis, so the ranking gap is wider than the gap in current match sharpness. The limitation is that neither the qualifying field nor Schoolkate is near Bellucci's level, so the run is not direct evidence against a top-100 opponent.
- Beat Thomas Fancutt 7-5 6-3 and Kangyuan Shi 6-1 6-1 in qualifying
- Beat Tristan Schoolkate 7-5 6-4 in the first round as a qualifier
- Pavlovic is ranked No. 207 and Schoolkate No. 155
ConfirmedSources checked 14 Oct 2026, 15:05 · Europe/Bucharest
That serve is the base of Pavlovic's case in this second-round match. Bellucci has returned better than most of Pavlovic's recent opponents, winning 40.2% of return points on hard courts over his own 15-match window. Pavlovic also converts only 36.3% of break points across his last 15 matches.
- 14 hard-court matches and 147 aces in the current window, latest match 2026-10-14
- First-serve points won 449 of 558 (80.5%) on hard courts
- First serves in 558 of 993 (56.2%) across those 14 matches
- 15-match window: break points converted 33 of 91 (36.3%)
Bellucci's start is the strongest part of his hard-court record, and none of those 13 opening sets needed a tiebreak. Pavlovic has also won 10 of 14 opening sets on hard courts over his own 14-match window, so an early lead is not assured. Both samples are small enough that the split is a tendency rather than a fixed pattern.
- 13 hard-court best-of-three matches tracked, 2026-08-23 to 2026-10-13
- First-set record 10-3 with an average of 5.54 games won and 3.38 lost
- No first-set tiebreak in the 13-match sample

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bellucci is the higher-ranked, more solid returner and has dropped few games in Jinan so far.
- ATP ranking: Bellucci 86, Pavlovic 207
- Hard-court last 15: Bellucci 10-5, return points won 40.2% vs Pavlovic 35.2%
- Jinan R1: Bellucci beat Ymer (192) 6-2 6-1; Pavlovic beat Schoolkate (155) 7-5 6-4
- Break points saved on hard: Bellucci 68.8% vs Pavlovic 62.9%
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMattia BellucciEstimated chance69%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bellucci's opening sets have generally been decisive rather than drawn out.
- Bellucci set 1 average total games 8.92
- No first-set tiebreaks in Bellucci's 13 hard matches
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets for both players average near or above ten games.
- Set 2 average total games: Pavlovic 10.36, Bellucci 9.46
- Set 2 tiebreaks: Pavlovic 5 of 14, Bellucci 1 of 13
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bellucci's wins on this surface have mostly been efficient and short.
- Bellucci average total games 22.54 on hard
- Bellucci's Jinan first round lasted only 15 games
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 23.5Estimated chance52%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Bellucci has started sets strongly on hard courts and tends to take the lead early.
- Hard-court set 1 record: Bellucci 10-3, Pavlovic 10-4
- Bellucci set 1 games won average 5.54, lost 3.38
- Bellucci opened with a 6-2 set in his Jinan first round
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonMattia BellucciEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Bellucci's second-set record on hard courts is the stronger of the two.
- Hard-court set 2 record: Bellucci 9-4, Pavlovic 8-6
- Bellucci set 2 games won average 5.54, lost 3.92
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonMattia BellucciEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Straight-set outcomes are the most common result for both players in this window.
- Bellucci straight-set wins 7 of 13 hard matches
- Pavlovic straight-set results 8 of 14 hard matches
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance59%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The two players' double-fault averages together sit just above the line.
- Double faults per match on hard: Pavlovic 3.6, Bellucci 2.4
- Combined hard-court average 6.0
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Most of each player's matches in this window have been settled without a tiebreak.
- No tiebreak in 8 of Bellucci's 13 hard matches
- No tiebreak in 8 of Pavlovic's 14 hard matches
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Adding the two serving averages puts the expected match total just above the line.
- Aces per match on hard: Pavlovic 10.5, Bellucci 8.3
- Combined hard-court average 18.8 aces
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 18.5Estimated chance52%

Prediction history

Mattia Bellucci: 2/5 recent winner projections matched

2 of 5 comparable winner projections favouring Mattia Bellucci matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Mattia Bellucci5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

14 Jun·ATP Halle

#78Mattia Bellucci2-1#157Alex Bolt

BetBugsMattia Bellucci to win·58%

Matched

14 Jun 2026

ATP Halle

#78Mattia Bellucci2-1#157Alex Bolt

Mattia Bellucci to win

58%probability

Mattia Bellucci won

Matched

13 Jun·ATP Halle

#78Mattia Bellucci2-0#303Mikhail Kukushkin

BetBugsMattia Bellucci to win·72%

Matched

13 Jun 2026

ATP Halle

#78Mattia Bellucci2-0#303Mikhail Kukushkin

Mattia Bellucci to win

72%probability

Mattia Bellucci won

Matched

2 Jun·Birmingham - Great Britain

#73Mattia Bellucci0-2#152Alex Bolt

BetBugsMattia Bellucci to win·62%

Missed

2 Jun 2026

Birmingham - Great Britain

#73Mattia Bellucci0-2#152Alex Bolt

Mattia Bellucci to win

62%probability

Alex Bolt won

Missed

24 May·ATP Roland Garros

#88Quentin Halys3-0#72Mattia Bellucci

BetBugsMattia Bellucci to win·55%

Missed

24 May 2026

ATP Roland Garros

#88Quentin Halys3-0#72Mattia Bellucci

Mattia Bellucci to win

55%probability

Quentin Halys won

Missed

11 May·ATP Rome

#80Mattia Bellucci0-2#94Martin Landaluce

BetBugsMattia Bellucci to win·55%

Missed

11 May 2026

ATP Rome

#80Mattia Bellucci0-2#94Martin Landaluce

Mattia Bellucci to win

55%probability

Martin Landaluce won

Missed

Previous match context available

Luka Pavlovic

8W 7L

7-5 6-4#155Tristan Schoolkate 6-1 6-1—Kangyuan Shi 7-5 6-3#697Thomas Fancutt

4-6 6-4 6-1#154Ilia Simakin

6-2 6-3#110Lloyd Harris

6-2 6-4#324Akira Santillan

6-4 6-7(6) 6-3#133Alexandre Muller

3-6 6-1 7-6(6)#605Hunter Heck

7-5 6-3—Ha Minh Duc Vu

6-4 6-7(4) 6-4#96Jacob Fearnley

6-3 6-7(3) 7-5#200Juan Pablo Varillas

7-6(2) 7-6(1)#453Felipe Meligeni Alves

6-1 7-5#141Vilius Gaubas

6-4 3-6 6-1#272Matteo Martineau

6-2 7-6(3)#202Keegan Smith

Mattia Bellucci

10W 5L

6-2 6-1#192Elias Ymer

6-4 3-6 7-6(4)#277Yi Zhou

6-4 6-2#133Alexandre Muller

4-6 7-5 7-6(3)#192Elias Ymer

1-6 6-3 7-6(4)#110Lloyd Harris

6-4 6-4#300Yanki Erel

7-5 6-2#98Adam Walton

6-0 6-3#133Alexandre Muller

6-2 6-2#550Keisuke Saitoh

6-2 6-4#661Filip Peliwo

6-3 6-4#70Kamil Majchrzak

6-0 6-1 6-1#12Taylor Fritz

6-4 6-2 6-0#114Zsombor Piros

2-6 6-4 6-2#21Luciano Darderi

6-4 6-7(3) 6-1#73Martin Landaluce

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

LPLuka PavlovicPavlovic

Last 15

2–6

9 core stats · 1 even

Mattia BellucciBellucciMB

Mattia Bellucci carries the stronger recent form — Luka Pavlovic's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In56.6%+5.9pp62.5%

1st Serve Won79.4%+4.0pp75.4%

2nd Serve Won53.1%—52.9%

Aces / Match10.0+1.78.3

Double Faults / Match3.51.1 fewer2.4

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won34.4%+5.8pp40.2%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted36.3%+1.7pp38.0%

Break Pts Saved60.3%+8.5pp68.8%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won50.7%+2.3pp53.0%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

56.6%1st Serve In+5.9pp62.5%

79.4%1st Serve Won+4.0pp75.4%

53.1%2nd Serve Won—52.9%

10.0Aces / Match+1.78.3

3.5Double Faults / Match1.1 fewer2.4

Return · 0–1

34.4%Return Pts Won+5.8pp40.2%

Pressure · 0–2

36.3%Break Pts Converted+1.7pp38.0%

60.3%Break Pts Saved+8.5pp68.8%

Points · 0–1

50.7%Total Pts Won+2.3pp53.0%