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Predictions graded

Luka Pavlovic #207France2Tristan Schoolkate #155Australia0

Sets 7-5 · 6-4Wed 14 Oct 2026, 04:49 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions6–367%

Edges2–250%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageTristan Schoolkate · 52 places

Luka Pavlovic

France

French right-hander; reached career-high ATP singles No. 184 in July 2025. He qualified for his first Grand Slam main draw at Roland Garros in May 2026.

Current ranking: #207
Peak ranking: #184 · 2025
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 196 cm

Tristan Schoolkate

Australia

Career-high No. 95 on 15 September 2025. He has won Challenger titles on hard and grass, but no reliable source located explicitly states a preferred surface or current decline trajectory.

Current ranking: #155
Peak ranking: #95 · 2025
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Grass
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Oct 2026, 15:31 · Europe/Bucharest

Schoolkate is higher-ranked and owns the second-set record, but he arrives on three-set defeats while Pavlovic has just qualified in Jinan and has won 10 of 14 opening sets on hard courts.

Schoolkate stays narrowly the more likely match winner, so the quoted prices with something behind them are all on Pavlovic: 2.6 to win the match, 2.4 to take the first set and 5.25 for a 2-1 win.

Context

Pavlovic's qualifying wins over Thomas Fancutt and Kangyuan Shi on 11- put four completed sets on the Jinan hard courts before this first-round match. That gives him match rhythm and site familiarity that a direct entrant without matches at this event does not have, and neither win required a deciding set, so the fatigue cost of the qualifying run is limited. The counterweight is level: Schoolkate sits 52 places higher and has recent main-draw hard-court experience at tour level, so qualifying sharpness alone does not settle the matchup.
- Pavlovic beat Thomas Fancutt 7-5 6-3 in Jinan qualifying .
- Pavlovic beat Kangyuan Shi 6-1 6-1 in Jinan qualifying .
- Pavlovic advanced to the Jinan main draw without losing a set.
ConfirmedSources checked 13 Oct 2026, 15:28 · Europe/BucharestScoreGoscorego-app.com · 13 Oct 2026
Pavlovic's first-set sample covers 14 hard-court matches from 24 July to 12 October 2026.
The opening set has been Pavlovic's most reliable phase: 10 wins in 14 hard-court matches, averaging 5.57 games to 3.93. Schoolkate took 7 of 13 opening sets, so this is a lean rather than a mismatch between them. Only one of Pavlovic's 14 first sets went to a tiebreak.
- Pavlovic won 10 of 14 opening sets in tracked hard-court matches from 24 July to 12 October 2026.
- He averaged 5.57 games won and 3.93 games lost in first sets across that 14-match sample.
- One of those 14 opening sets went to a tiebreak.
Schoolkate's second-set sample covers 13 hard-court matches from 17 August to 5 October 2026.
The second set is the clearest split between these two records: Schoolkate has won 11 of 13, while Pavlovic lost 6 of his 14. That makes the middle set the phase where Schoolkate is most likely to be ahead, whatever the first set brings. The same 13 hard-court matches produced six straight-sets wins, four three-set defeats, two three-set wins and one straight-sets defeat.
- Schoolkate won the second set in 11 of 13 tracked hard-court matches from 17 August to 5 October 2026.
- He averaged 5.77 games won and 4.00 games lost in second sets across that 13-match sample.
- The same 13 matches include four three-set defeats and one straight-sets loss.
Schoolkate's two most recent matches both ended in three-set defeats, and the Shanghai loss to Dane Sweeny was his final competitive outing before Jinan. Together they describe a player who has recently spent long matches on court without converting them, arriving with recent match minutes but no win since 30 September. The Mayot match was on indoor hard and the Sweeny match on outdoor hard, while Jinan is outdoor hard, so the conditions are only partly comparable.
- Harold Mayot beat Schoolkate 6-4 2-6 6-4 at Mouilleron-le-Captif .
- Dane Sweeny beat Schoolkate 3-6 6-3 6-2 in Shanghai qualifying on 5 October.
- Both defeats came in three sets.
ConfirmedSources checked 13 Oct 2026, 15:28 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Schoolkate sits 52 ranking places higher and is the steadier server, which keeps him just ahead in a close match.
- Ranked 155 against Pavlovic's 207
- Hard-court record 9-6, games won 53.3% (215/403)
- Won 11 of 13 second sets on hard
- Reached the 2026 US Open second round as a qualifier
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostTristan SchoolkateEstimated chance52%

Games3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets have lasted slightly longer than first sets for both players, with more tiebreaks.
- Pavlovic set-two total averaged 10.21 games
- Schoolkate's averaged 9.77 games
- 7 tiebreaks across 27 combined second sets
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Set-one totals sit right around the line, with both players averaging close to ten games.
- Pavlovic set-one total averaged 9.5 games
- Schoolkate's averaged 9.92 games
- Only 3 tiebreaks in 27 combined opening sets
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Straight-sets results are slightly more common, keeping the total just under the line.
- Pavlovic hard-court total averaged 23.9 games
- Schoolkate's averaged 24.8 games
- More than half of both players' hard matches ended in straight sets
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 24.5Estimated chance52%

Sets2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Schoolkate has been clearly stronger in second sets, winning 11 of 13 on hard courts.
- Schoolkate won set two in 11 of 13 hard matches
- Pavlovic lost set two in 6 of 14
- Schoolkate set-two games 5.77 won against 4.00 lost
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostTristan SchoolkateEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Straight-sets finishes have been the more common result for both players in this window.
- Pavlovic finished 2-0 or 0-2 in 8 of 14 hard matches
- Schoolkate finished 2-0 or 0-2 in 7 of 13
- Both average under 2.5 sets per match (2.43 and 2.46)
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.40
The read
Pavlovic has started matches better than Schoolkate in this window and is the slight favourite for the opening set.
- Pavlovic won set one in 10 of 14 hard matches (71%)
- Schoolkate won set one in 7 of 13 (54%)
- Pavlovic set-one games 5.57 won against 3.93 lost
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonLuka PavlovicEstimated chance52%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Most of these matches have finished without a tiebreak, especially in the opening set.
- Pavlovic's matches with a tiebreak: 6 of 14
- Schoolkate's: 4 of 13
- Set-one tiebreaks rare, just 3 in 27
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Pavlovic's higher double-fault rate lifts the combined average just above the line.
- Pavlovic averaged 3.5 double faults per hard match
- Schoolkate averaged 2.5
- Combined average about 6.0
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both serve big enough that the combined ace count sits right around the line.
- Pavlovic averaged 10.1 aces per hard match
- Schoolkate averaged 9.7
- Combined average about 19.8
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 19.5Estimated chance51%

Prediction history

Tristan Schoolkate: 2/6 recent winner projections matched

2 of 6 comparable winner projections favouring Tristan Schoolkate matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Tristan Schoolkate6 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

14 Jul·Granby - Canada

#287Murphy Cassone2-1#148Tristan Schoolkate

BetBugsTristan Schoolkate to win·62%

Missed

14 Jul 2026

Granby - Canada

#287Murphy Cassone2-1#148Tristan Schoolkate

Tristan Schoolkate to win

62%probability

Murphy Cassone won

Missed

25 Jun·ATP Wimbledon

#168Nicolas Mejia3-0#147Tristan Schoolkate

BetBugsTristan Schoolkate to win·55%

Missed

25 Jun 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#168Nicolas Mejia3-0#147Tristan Schoolkate

Tristan Schoolkate to win

55%probability

Nicolas Mejia won

Missed

22 Jun·ATP Wimbledon

#294Johannus Monday0-2#149Tristan Schoolkate

BetBugsTristan Schoolkate to win·58%

Matched

22 Jun 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#294Johannus Monday0-2#149Tristan Schoolkate

Tristan Schoolkate to win

58%probability

Tristan Schoolkate won

Matched

12 Jun·Ilkley - Great Britain

#123Tristan Schoolkate0-2#342Oliver Tarvet

BetBugsTristan Schoolkate to win·65%

Missed

12 Jun 2026

Ilkley - Great Britain

#123Tristan Schoolkate0-2#342Oliver Tarvet

Tristan Schoolkate to win

65%probability

Oliver Tarvet won

Missed

9 Jun·Ilkley - Great Britain

#123Tristan Schoolkate2-1#325Paul Jubb

BetBugsTristan Schoolkate to win·65%

Matched

9 Jun 2026

Ilkley - Great Britain

#123Tristan Schoolkate2-1#325Paul Jubb

Tristan Schoolkate to win

65%probability

Tristan Schoolkate won

Matched

Previous match context available

Luka Pavlovic

8W 7L

6-1 6-1—Kangyuan Shi 7-5 6-3#697Thomas Fancutt

4-6 6-4 6-1#154Ilia Simakin

6-2 6-3#110Lloyd Harris

6-2 6-4#324Akira Santillan

6-4 6-7(6) 6-3#133Alexandre Muller

3-6 6-1 7-6(6)#605Hunter Heck

7-5 6-3—Ha Minh Duc Vu

6-4 6-7(4) 6-4#96Jacob Fearnley

6-3 6-7(3) 7-5#200Juan Pablo Varillas

7-6(2) 7-6(1)#453Felipe Meligeni Alves

6-1 7-5#141Vilius Gaubas

6-4 3-6 6-1#272Matteo Martineau

6-2 7-6(3)#202Keegan Smith

6-1 6-2#317Mert Alkaya

Tristan Schoolkate

9W 6L

3-6 6-3 6-2#112Dane Sweeny

6-4 2-6 6-4#186Harold Mayot

6-3 6-4#267Philip Henning

7-6(4) 6-7(6) 7-6(6)#272Matteo Martineau

6-3 6-3#186Harold Mayot

6-2 6-1#571Matisse Bobichon

6-7(7) 6-4 6-4#314Anton Matusevich

6-1 6-3#414Marek Gengel

3-6 6-3 6-4 7-5#7Flavio Cobolli

7-6(4) 3-6 6-3 6-4#139Nishesh Basavareddy

4-6 7-5 7-6(7)#219Liam Draxl

6-4 7-6(6)#675Seongchan Hong

6-3 6-2—Jack Secord

6-4 3-6 7-5#135Stefanos Sakellaridis

7-5 6-4#720Nicolas Arseneault

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

LPLuka PavlovicPavlovic

Last 15

3–2

9 core stats · 4 even

Tristan SchoolkateSchoolkateTS

Luka Pavlovic carries the stronger recent form — Tristan Schoolkate's route runs through serve.

Serve · 1–2 · 2 even

1st Serve In57.0%+3.4pp60.4%

1st Serve Won79.0%+1.5pp77.5%

2nd Serve Won53.8%—53.6%

Aces / Match9.7—9.7

Double Faults / Match3.40.9 fewer2.5

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won35.0%—35.1%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted36.1%+2.2pp33.9%

Break Pts Saved59.4%+2.5pp56.9%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won51.0%—51.5%

Serve · 1–2 · 2 even

57.0%1st Serve In+3.4pp60.4%

79.0%1st Serve Won+1.5pp77.5%

53.8%2nd Serve Won—53.6%

9.7Aces / Match—9.7

3.4Double Faults / Match0.9 fewer2.5

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

35.0%Return Pts Won—35.1%

Pressure · 2–0

36.1%Break Pts Converted+2.2pp33.9%

59.4%Break Pts Saved+2.5pp56.9%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

51.0%Total Pts Won—51.5%

Luka Pavlovic

Tristan Schoolkate

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Luka Pavlovic

Luka Pavlovic

Luka Pavlovic 2-1

Tristan Schoolkate

Result0 of 1 landed

Games3 of 3 landed

Sets2 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Luka Pavlovic

Tristan Schoolkate

Stat Battle