ChinaWTA WuhanFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Marie Bouzkova #28Czechia1Maja Chwalinska #22Poland2

Sets 6-1 · 1-6 · 1-6Wed 14 Oct 2026, 03:12 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions7–558%

Edges2–340%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMaja Chwalinska · 6 places

Marie Bouzkova

Czechia

Right-handed and 1.80m, Bouzkova reached career-high No. 21 in July 2026. Her official profile records 2026 titles in Bogota and Nottingham but does not publish a preferred surface.

Current ranking: #28
Peak ranking: #21 · 2026
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Maja Chwalinska

Poland

Her current No. 21 ranking is also her career high. The left-hander reached the 2026 Roland Garros final and is coached by Jaroslav Machovsky.

Current ranking: #22
Peak ranking: #21
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Left handed
Height: 164 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Oct 2026, 15:17 · Europe/Bucharest

A first meeting between Bouzkova and Chwalinska, pitting the steadier hard-court record against the higher-ranked seed.

Bouzkova's 8-5 hard-court form makes her the slight favourite, but her 1.44 and 1.5 prices demand more than that record supports. Chwalinska's 2.75 to win, 2.4 in either of the first two sets and 4.25 for a 2-0 win all offer an edge, while 1.45 on under 2.5 sets offers none.

Context

Bouzkova needed only three games to reach the second round, so she arrives with a light workload while Chwalinska has completed a full opener. The short outing also leaves little evidence about Bouzkova's level on the Wuhan courts beyond a 6-1 start. A retirement win cannot show how she holds up in a competitive match, so the freshness is real but the form signal is limited.
- Bouzkova was leading 6-1 2-0 when Clara Tauson retired from their first-round match.
- Tauson stopped because of a left calf injury.
- The result placed Bouzkova in the Wuhan second round.
ConfirmedSources checked 13 Oct 2026, 15:15 · Europe/BucharestPolsat Sportwww.polsatsport.pl · 13 Oct 2026
The win gives Chwalinska a completed match on the Wuhan hard court and extends her run at a WTA 1000 event. It came against an opponent ranked outside the top 50, so it establishes continuity rather than a statement result. Hard court remains the surface where her 2026 record is thinner than on clay.
- Chwalinska defeated Mayar Sherif 6-3 6-2 in the first round.
- The win put her into the second round, where Bouzkova awaited.
- Her advantage grew as the match went on.
ConfirmedSources checked 13 Oct 2026, 15:15 · Europe/BucharestPolsat Sportwww.polsatsport.pl · 13 Oct 2026
The seeding reflects Chwalinska's standing inside the top 25 and gives her the higher protected position in the draw. It carries no on-court advantage in a first meeting against an unseeded opponent. Bouzkova's ranking sits close enough that the seed line does not by itself set the balance of the match.
- Chwalinska was the 16th seed in the Wuhan draw.
ConfirmedSources checked 13 Oct 2026, 15:15 · Europe/BucharestPolsat Sportwww.polsatsport.pl · 13 Oct 2026
With no shared history, the matchup has to be read from current form, surface profile and contrasting styles rather than from any prior result. Bouzkova's hard-court record is the more established of the two, while Chwalinska's best 2026 results came on clay. That contrast, rather than a head-to-head pattern, is what shapes the read.
- The second-round tie is the pair's first career meeting.
ConfirmedSources checked 13 Oct 2026, 15:15 · Europe/BucharestPolsat Sportwww.polsatsport.pl · 13 Oct 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bouzkova has the better hard-court record and stronger first-set numbers and arrives in the best stretch of her career.
- Hard-court record 8-5 in 13 matches, against Chwalinska's 5-6 in 11
- Won 9 of 13 first sets on hard, with an average 6.08 games won against 4.69 lost
- Pushed Beijing champion Qinwen Zheng to three sets in her most recent completed match
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostMarie BouzkovaEstimated chance55%

Games5 of 6 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Chwalinska usually keeps matches close and often wins them, so a five-game swing against her is uncommon.
- Chwalinska recent hard margins: +11, +8, +7, +6, -1, -8
- Bouzkova recent hard margins: +8, +8, +4, +1, -1, -2
- Match is near even on hard-court records
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonMaja Chwalinska +4.5Estimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
In a near-even match, Chwalinska is likely to keep the game gap within two either way.
- Chwalinska recent hard margins: +11, +8, +7, +6, -1, -8
- Bouzkova recent hard margins: +8, +8, +4, +1, -1, -2
- Bouzkova is only a slight match favorite
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonMaja Chwalinska +2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The close profile means Chwalinska often stays within a game or two on the scoreboard.
- Chwalinska recent hard margins: +7, -8, -1, +8, +11, +6
- Bouzkova recent hard margins: +4, +1, -2, +8, +8, -1
- Only a slim ranking and form gap separates them
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonMaja Chwalinska +1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bouzkova's first sets often go deep, though Chwalinska's are usually quicker.
- Bouzkova set 1 total games average is 10.77
- Chwalinska set 1 total games average is 8.55
- Bouzkova had five first-set tiebreaks in 13 hard matches
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Chwalinska's second sets tend to finish quickly, which weighs toward the under.
- Chwalinska set 2 total games average is 8.45
- Bouzkova set 2 total games average is 10.31
- Chwalinska won her last second set 6-2
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Chwalinska's matches are consistently short, which pulls the expectation down.
- Chwalinska total games average is 18.45
- Bouzkova total games average is 23.77
- Chwalinska's last five hard matches all finished under 24 games
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 21.5Estimated chance51%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.45
The read
Straight-set results dominate both players' hard-court records.
- Bouzkova hard-court scorelines include 10 of 13 in straight sets
- Chwalinska hard-court scorelines include 9 of 11 in straight sets
- Chwalinska's last five hard matches were all straight sets
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bouzkova's second-set record on hard is clearly stronger than Chwalinska's.
- Set 2 record 8-5 across 13 hard-court matches
- Chwalinska's set 2 record is 5-6
- Took the second set 6-4 in her win over Kimberly Birrell
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostMarie BouzkovaEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bouzkova has taken more first sets than Chwalinska in comparable hard-court play.
- Set 1 record 9-4 across 13 hard-court matches
- Set 1 games won average 6.08 against 4.69 lost
- Chwalinska's set 1 record is 7-4
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonMarie BouzkovaEstimated chance54%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Chwalinska's matches usually avoid tiebreaks, and most of this match is expected to be settled before one.
- Chwalinska had one tiebreak in 11 hard matches
- Bouzkova had 6 tiebreaks in 13 hard matches
- Chwalinska straight-set wins rarely featured a tiebreak
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance72%

Prediction history

Marie Bouzkova: 13/15 recent winner projections matched

13 of 15 comparable winner projections favouring Marie Bouzkova matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Marie Bouzkova15 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

24 Jul·WTA Prague

#21Marie Bouzkova1-2#63Tereza Valentova

BetBugsMarie Bouzkova to win·72%

Missed

24 Jul 2026

WTA Prague

#21Marie Bouzkova1-2#63Tereza Valentova

Marie Bouzkova to win

72%probability

Tereza Valentova won

Missed

22 Jul·WTA Prague

#21Marie Bouzkova2-0#179Carol Young Suh Lee

BetBugsMarie Bouzkova to win·82%

Matched

22 Jul 2026

WTA Prague

#21Marie Bouzkova2-0#179Carol Young Suh Lee

Marie Bouzkova to win

82%probability

Marie Bouzkova won

Matched

22 Jul·WTA Prague

#21Marie Bouzkova2-0#179Carol Young Suh Lee

BetBugsMarie Bouzkova to win·78%

Matched

22 Jul 2026

WTA Prague

#21Marie Bouzkova2-0#179Carol Young Suh Lee

Marie Bouzkova to win

78%probability

Marie Bouzkova won

Matched

20 Jul·WTA Prague

#21Marie Bouzkova2-0#62Jessica Bouzas Maneiro

BetBugsMarie Bouzkova to win·72%

Matched

20 Jul 2026

WTA Prague

#21Marie Bouzkova2-0#62Jessica Bouzas Maneiro

Marie Bouzkova to win

72%probability

Marie Bouzkova won

Matched

4 Jul·WTA Wimbledon

#41Liudmila Samsonova1-2#23Marie Bouzkova

BetBugsMarie Bouzkova to win·62%

Matched

4 Jul 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#41Liudmila Samsonova1-2#23Marie Bouzkova

Marie Bouzkova to win

62%probability

Marie Bouzkova won

Matched

Previous match context available

Marie Bouzkova

9W 6L

6-1 2-0 ret.#53Clara Tauson

7-6(3) 4-6 7-5#23Qinwen Zheng

6-4 6-4#40Kimberly Birrell

7-6(2) 4-6 6-4#170Sonay Kartal

7-6(3) 7-6(3)#9Iga Swiatek

6-2 6-2#113Harriet Dart

6-2 6-2#158Elsa Jacquemot

6-3 6-2#5Cori Gauff

7-6(0) 7-6(5)#11Iva Jovic

6-2 6-4#106Lucrezia Stefanini

7-6(4) 7-5#89Taylor Townsend

2-6 6-4 7-6(6)#62Tereza Valentova

7-5 6-4#140Carol Young Suh Lee

7-5 7-5#99Jessica Bouzas Maneiro

6-4 6-4#14Elise Mertens

Maja Chwalinska

7W 8L

6-3 6-2#52Mayar Sherif

6-3 6-1#103Dayana Yastremska

1-6 6-4 6-2#25Leylah Annie Fernandez

6-2 6-2#14Elise Mertens

6-0 6-1#51Oleksandra Oliynykova

6-4 6-2#134Rebecca Sramkova

6-2 6-3#89Taylor Townsend

3-6 6-2 6-2#64Alycia Parks

6-2 7-6(3)#13Diana Shnaider

6-2 6-2#38Cristina Bucsa

7-5 6-1#41Talia Gibson

2-6 7-5 6-2#83Mananchaya Sawangkaew

6-3 6-2#3Mirra Andreeva

7-6(4) 6-4#13Diana Shnaider

7-6(3) 6-3#21Anna Kalinskaya

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MBMarie BouzkovaBouzkova

Last 15

4–3

9 core stats · 2 even

Maja ChwalinskaChwalinskaMC

Marie Bouzkova carries the stronger recent form — Maja Chwalinska's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In14/15 · 15/1567.1%+4.0pp71.1%

1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/1567.8%+8.6pp59.2%

2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/1546.5%—47.1%

Aces / Match14/15 · 15/152.3+1.60.7

Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/153.21.1 fewer2.1

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/1544.0%—44.7%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/1546.2%+8.2pp54.4%

Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/1557.9%+1.1pp56.8%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/1552.1%+1.8pp50.3%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

67.1%1st Serve In14/15 · 15/15+4.0pp71.1%

67.8%1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+8.6pp59.2%

46.5%2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/15—47.1%

2.3Aces / Match14/15 · 15/15+1.60.7

3.2Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/151.1 fewer2.1

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

44.0%Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/15—44.7%

Pressure · 1–1

46.2%Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/15+8.2pp54.4%

57.9%Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/15+1.1pp56.8%

Points · 1–0

52.1%Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+1.8pp50.3%

Marie Bouzkova

Maja Chwalinska

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 2.5

Maja Chwalinska

Maja Chwalinska

Maja Chwalinska

Maja Chwalinska 2-0

Result0 of 1 landed

Games5 of 6 landed

Sets1 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Marie Bouzkova

Maja Chwalinska

Stat Battle