ChinaWTA WuhanFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Mayar Sherif #52Egypt0Maja Chwalinska #21Poland2

Sets 3-6 · 2-6Tue 13 Oct 2026, 05:26 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions9–375%

Edges2–250%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMaja Chwalinska · 31 places

Mayar Sherif

Egypt

Egyptian right-hander who has described clay as her favourite surface. She reached a career-best No. 31 on June 19, 2023.

Current ranking: #52
Peak ranking: #31 · 2023
Current age: 30
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Maja Chwalinska

Poland

Her current No. 21 ranking is also her career high. The left-hander reached the 2026 Roland Garros final and is coached by Jaroslav Machovsky.

Current ranking: #21
Peak ranking: #21
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Left handed
Height: 164 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Oct 2026, 03:37 · Europe/Bucharest

Chwalinska is seeded 16th and ranked 21st, yet her hard-court record is 4-6, and Sherif's 11-2 run was built on clay, so this first round is less one-sided than the 1.22 match price suggests, especially with Sherif's fitness unconfirmed.

Chwalinska is still the likelier winner in ordinary terms. The two prices that offer something are Sherif at 4.25 and a deciding third set at 2.9.

Context

The knee withdrawal in Beijing is less than two weeks old, and Sherif has not completed a match since 2 September, so her first-round rhythm and physical durability at WTA 1000 level are untested. Being in the Wuhan draw is the only current indication that the knee permits competition, and entry is not evidence of match fitness. Her two recorded hard-court matches since July both ended in straight-set losses, adding a second uncertainty. Her opening-day condition is unresolved rather than a confirmed limitation.
- Withdrew from the China Open with a knee injury
- No completed match since a 6-1 6-2 loss to Nikola Bartunkova at the US Open on 2 September 2026
- Named in the Wuhan Open main draw
ReportedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 03:34 · Europe/BucharestWuhan Open match pagewww.tennismajors.com · 11 Oct 2026
The run is the strongest result of Chwalińska's career and came on clay in June, four months before this hard-court fixture. It included wins over Zheng Qinwen, Maria Sakkari, Anna Kalinskaya and Diana Shnaider before a loss to Mirra Andreeva, so it shows she can beat seeded opposition across two weeks of a major. The result explains why a 25-year-old left-hander is seeded 16th at a WTA 1000 event. Her hard-court record is much thinner, so the clay run sets her level but does not translate directly to Wuhan conditions.
- Reached the 2026 Roland Garros final
- Beat Zheng Qinwen, Maria Sakkari, Anna Kalinskaya and Diana Shnaider en route
- Lost the final to Mirra Andreeva
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 03:34 · Europe/BucharestThe numbers behind Chwalinska's Roland Garros runwww.rolandgarros.com · 6 Jun 2026
This is the hard-court evidence closest to Wuhan, three weeks earlier, and it includes her first career win over a top-20 opponent in defending champion Elise Mertens. It shows the left-hander reproducing her clay level on a faster surface. The week ended with a three-set semi-final loss to Leylah Fernandez after she led 6-1, and her next tournament ended in a straight-sets defeat, so the level has not been continuous. It is one week of evidence rather than a settled hard-court record.
- Beat defending champion Elise Mertens 6-2 6-2 in the Singapore quarter-finals
- The Mertens win was her first against a top-20 opponent
- Lost the semi-final to Leylah Fernandez after winning the first set 6-1
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 03:34 · Europe/Bucharest
Sherif brings the better recent win-loss record into a surface where her evidence is very thin.
Her 13-match window includes four clay wins between 18 and 24 July 2026, among them three-set wins over Paula Badosa and Simona Waltert. The two hard-court results are 3-6 4-6 to Oleksandra Oliynykova on 23 August and 1-6 2-6 to Nikola Bartunkova on 2 September. Two completed hard matches cannot settle whether the surface gap is lasting, and Chwalinska's own 4-6 hard-court mark keeps the contrast from being decisive.
- 11-2 record across 13 tracked matches
- Hard-court defeats: 3-6 4-6 to Oleksandra Oliynykova on 23 August 2026 and 1-6 2-6 to Nikola Bartunkova on 2 September 2026
- Four wins between 18 and 24 July 2026 came on clay, including three-set wins over Paula Badosa (24 July) and Simona Waltert (22 July)

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Maja Chwalinska

1.30fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 76.9%

−14.9ppshort

Chwalinska's first-set record is the stronger part of her hard-court sample and Sherif has not won a hard set tracked.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Chwalinska has the higher ranking and a much larger hard-court sample, including a win over a top-20 opponent, while Sherif has yet to win a hard set tracked.
- Chwalinska is ranked 21st, Sherif 52nd
- Chwalinska is 4-6 on hard with 10 matches tracked
- Sherif is 0-2 on hard, losing 3-12 and 7-12 in games
- Chwalinska beat then-19th-ranked Mertens 6-2 6-2
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMaja ChwalinskaEstimated chance64%

Games3 of 6 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Chwalinska has rarely won by eight games or more on hard, so Sherif covering that cushion is the stronger side.
- Only two of Chwalinska's tracked hard wins cleared seven games
- Chwalinska's average hard margin is +1.5 games
- Sherif kept one hard defeat to a five-game margin
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonMayar Sherif +7.5Estimated chance73%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Chwalinska has not consistently dominated on hard, making a six-game cushion for Sherif the more likely side.
- Chwalinska's average hard margin is +1.5 games
- Chwalinska has lost or drawn close in most tracked hard matches
- Sherif's two hard defeats were by five and nine games
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostMayar Sherif +5.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined hard-court game averages sit just above the 17.5 line.
- Chwalinska's hard matches average 18.6 games
- Sherif's hard matches average 17 games
- One tiebreak appeared in Chwalinska's ten hard matches
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 17.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Chwalinska rarely wins by a wide margin on hard, so Sherif can stay within four games even in defeat.
- Chwalinska's average hard margin is +1.5 games
- Sherif's two hard defeats were by five and nine games
- Chwalinska has lost six of ten hard matches
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostMayar Sherif +3.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' first-set totals have sat below 9.5 games on this surface.
- Chwalinska's hard first sets average 8.5 games
- Sherif's hard first sets average 8 games
- No tiebreaks appeared in the ten hard first sets tracked
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second-set totals have generally fallen below the line in the hard-court sample.
- Chwalinska's hard second sets average 8.5 games
- Sherif's hard second sets average 9 games
- Only one tiebreak came in Chwalinska's ten hard matches
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance54%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The large majority of tracked hard-court matches involving these two ended in two sets.
- Eight of Chwalinska's ten hard matches finished in straight sets
- Both of Sherif's hard matches were straight-set losses
- Chwalinska's hard average is 2.2 sets per match
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Chwalinska's first-set record is the stronger part of her hard-court sample and Sherif has not won a hard set tracked.
- Chwalinska has won 6 of 10 hard first sets
- She averages 4.8 games to 3.7 in hard first sets
- Sherif has lost both hard first sets tracked
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonMaja ChwalinskaEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Even with a losing second-set record, Chwalinska remains favoured against a player yet to win a hard set.
- Chwalinska's hard second-set record is 4-6
- She averages 4.1 games to 4.4 in hard second sets
- Sherif lost both hard second sets tracked
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonMaja ChwalinskaEstimated chance58%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tiebreaks have been rare across the twelve combined hard-court matches tracked.
- One of Chwalinska's ten hard matches had a tiebreak
- None of Sherif's two hard matches had a tiebreak
- Chwalinska's hard first sets produced no tiebreaks
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance72%

Prediction history

Maja Chwalinska: 7/8 recent winner projections matched

7 of 8 comparable winner projections favouring Maja Chwalinska matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Maja Chwalinska8 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

29 Jun·WTA Wimbledon

#164Mananchaya Sawangkaew2-1#21Maja Chwalinska

BetBugsMaja Chwalinska to win·78%

Missed

29 Jun 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#164Mananchaya Sawangkaew2-1#21Maja Chwalinska

Maja Chwalinska to win

78%probability

Mananchaya Sawangkaew won

Missed

3 Jun·WTA Roland Garros

#24Anna Kalinskaya0-2#114Maja Chwalinska

BetBugsMaja Chwalinska to win·55%

Matched

3 Jun 2026

WTA Roland Garros

#24Anna Kalinskaya0-2#114Maja Chwalinska

Maja Chwalinska to win

55%probability

Maja Chwalinska won

Matched

1 Jun·WTA Roland Garros

#114Maja Chwalinska2-0#92Diane Parry

BetBugsMaja Chwalinska to win·55%

Matched

1 Jun 2026

WTA Roland Garros

#114Maja Chwalinska2-0#92Diane Parry

Maja Chwalinska to win

55%probability

Maja Chwalinska won

Matched

21 May·WTA Roland Garros

#116Maja Chwalinska2-0#129Suzan Lamens

BetBugsMaja Chwalinska to win·72%

Matched

21 May 2026

WTA Roland Garros

#116Maja Chwalinska2-0#129Suzan Lamens

Maja Chwalinska to win

72%probability

Maja Chwalinska won

Matched

20 May·WTA Roland Garros

#116Maja Chwalinska2-0#195Carole Monnet

BetBugsMaja Chwalinska to win·72%

Matched

20 May 2026

WTA Roland Garros

#116Maja Chwalinska2-0#195Carole Monnet

Maja Chwalinska to win

72%probability

Maja Chwalinska won

Matched

Mayar Sherif

12W 3L

6-1 6-2#34Nikola Bartunkova

6-3 6-4#47Oleksandra Oliynykova

6-1 2-0 ret.#53Tamara Korpatsch

7-6(4) 6-7(2) 6-4#59Paula Badosa Gibert

6-2 6-3#165Elsa Jacquemot

5-7 6-4 7-6(3)#98Simona Waltert

6-4 4-0 ret.#59Paula Badosa Gibert

6-3 6-1#47Oleksandra Oliynykova

6-2 3-6 7-6(5)#82Yulia Putintseva

6-3 7-6(2)#78Kaitlin Quevedo

6-2 6-0#150Dalma Galfi

3-6 7-6(0) 7-5#128Jeline Vandromme

7-5 7-6(3)#109Leolia Jeanjean

6-2 6-3#224Alicia Herrero Linana

6-3 7-5#403Amandine Hesse

Maja Chwalinska

7W 8L

6-3 6-1#111Dayana Yastremska

1-6 6-4 6-2#26Leylah Annie Fernandez

6-2 6-2#19Elise Mertens

6-0 6-1#47Oleksandra Oliynykova

6-4 6-2#152Rebecca Sramkova

6-2 6-3#92Taylor Townsend

3-6 6-2 6-2#70Alycia Parks

6-2 7-6(3)#14Diana Shnaider

6-2 6-2#35Cristina Bucsa

7-5 6-1#37Talia Gibson

2-6 7-5 6-2#90Mananchaya Sawangkaew

6-3 6-2#5Mirra Andreeva

7-6(4) 6-4#14Diana Shnaider

7-6(3) 6-3#22Anna Kalinskaya

6-3 6-2#31Diane Parry

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MSMayar SherifSherif

Last 15

4–3

9 core stats · 2 even

Maja ChwalinskaChwalinskaMC

Mayar Sherif carries the stronger recent form — Maja Chwalinska's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 2–1 · 2 even

1st Serve In75.7%+5.0pp70.7%

1st Serve Won57.9%+1.3pp59.2%

2nd Serve Won51.0%+3.8pp47.2%

Aces / Match0.5—0.5

Double Faults / Match1.8—2.0

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won48.0%+3.1pp44.9%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted51.1%+2.7pp53.8%

Break Pts Saved50.0%+6.8pp56.8%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won52.1%+1.7pp50.4%

Serve · 2–1 · 2 even

75.7%1st Serve In+5.0pp70.7%

57.9%1st Serve Won+1.3pp59.2%

51.0%2nd Serve Won+3.8pp47.2%

0.5Aces / Match—0.5

1.8Double Faults / Match—2.0

Return · 1–0

48.0%Return Pts Won+3.1pp44.9%

Pressure · 0–2

51.1%Break Pts Converted+2.7pp53.8%

50.0%Break Pts Saved+6.8pp56.8%

Points · 1–0

52.1%Total Pts Won+1.7pp50.4%

Mayar Sherif #52Egypt0Maja Chwalinska #21Poland2

Player Profiles

Mayar Sherif

Maja Chwalinska

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 2.5

Mayar Sherif

Maja Chwalinska

Maja Chwalinska 2-0

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 1 landed

Games3 of 6 landed

Sets3 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Maja Chwalinska: 7/8 recent winner projections matched

Mayar Sherif

Maja Chwalinska

Stat Battle