ItalyOlbia - ItalyFinished

Predictions graded

Andrea Guerrieri #165Italy0Maks Kasnikowski #238Poland2

Sets 3-6 · 4-6Wed 14 Oct 2026, 11:01 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions2–722%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAndrea Guerrieri · 73 places

Andrea Guerrieri

Italy

Reached a career-high No. 213 on 20 July 2026. He is listed as a left-hander with a two-handed backhand and hard as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #165
Peak ranking: #213 · 2026
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Carpet
Hand: Left handed
Height: 180 cm

Maks Kasnikowski

Poland

Kasnikowski, 23, is a Polish right-hander. He reached a career-high No. 168 in October 2024. The required public profile search did not establish a preferred surface.

Current ranking: #238
Peak ranking: #168 · 2024
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Oct 2026, 03:27 · Europe/Bucharest

Olbia's second round offers a quarter-final place: home seed Andrea Guerrieri, ranked No. 165, against No.

238 Maks Kasnikowski. Guerrieri is the likelier winner on the hard-court record, 10-5 in his last 15 and the better break-point saver, but the 1.6 price asks more of him than that record supports, and Kasnikowski at 2.2 is no better. Neither quoted price is worth taking.

Context

Guerrieri is seeded sixth in Olbia and is the leading Italian in the main draw, so this is a home fixture against an unseeded opponent. He is ranked No. 165, up from No. 213 in July 2026 and 73 places above Kasnikowski, placing his current level at a career best. That ranking gap is the clearest objective separation between the two players going into the match.
- Guerrieri is the sixth seed at the Olbia Challenger
- Ranked No. 165 as of, up from No. 213 in July 2026
- Listed among the Italian main-draw entrants on the Olbia entry list
ConfirmedSources checked 13 Oct 2026, 03:25 · Europe/Bucharest
Kasnikowski's serve gives him a route into the match despite starting 73 places below his opponent.
Kasnikowski has averaged 4.9 aces and 1.5 double faults per match across 11 tracked hard-court matches, winning 73% of first-serve points (338 of 463). Guerrieri's tracked serve, by contrast, produces 3.3 aces and 4.4 double faults per match. That serve advantage is the main reason the home seed's task is not straightforward, even though Kasnikowski's results on the surface are level at 6-6 from 12 matches.
- Kasnikowski averaged 4.9 aces and 1.5 double faults per match across 11 tracked hard-court matches in his last-15 sample
- He won 73% of first-serve points on hard courts (338 of 463), with the tracked hard-court sample running into October 2026
- His hard-court win-loss in that sample is 6-6 from 12 matches
Guerrieri's recent hard-court profile is a long-match one, with eight deciding sets in 14 outings.
Across 14 hard-court best-of-three matches from 5 August to 12 October 2026, Guerrieri won 2-1 eight times, won 2-0 twice and lost 0-2 three times, averaging 24.8 games. His recent profile is a long-match one rather than a quick-win one, so an early exit for the lower-ranked Kasnikowski is not the default. Four of those 14 matches still ended in straight sets.
- Guerrieri won 2-1 in eight of 14 hard-court best-of-three matches tracked between 5 August and 12 October 2026
- Those 14 matches averaged 24.8 total games and 2.64 sets
- His scorelines in that sample: two 2-0 wins, three 0-2 losses, eight 2-1 wins
Kasnikowski has started matches evenly and then given ground in second sets.
In 12 hard-court best-of-three matches from 4 August to 12 October 2026, Kasnikowski has won six first sets and five second sets, averaging 9.83 games per first set with three first-set tiebreaks. His openings have been even and drawn out, while the second set is where he has conceded more ground. Four of those 12 matches ended in straight-set defeats, which is the risk in reading too much into the pattern.
- Kasnikowski is 6-6 in first sets and 5-7 in second sets across 12 hard-court best-of-three matches tracked from 4 August to 12 October 2026
- First sets in that sample average 9.83 total games, with three tiebreaks
- Second sets in that sample average 9.92 total games, with three tiebreaks

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Lean

Andrea Guerrieri

1.60fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 62.5%

−2.5ppshort

The higher-ranked home seed has been the more reliable competitor over a similar hard-court sample and defends break points better.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.60
The read
The higher-ranked home seed has been the more reliable competitor over a similar hard-court sample and defends break points better.
- Guerrieri is 10-5 on hard in the last 15 matches, winning 52% of games; Kasnikowski is 6-6 on hard
- Guerrieri No. 165 and sixth seed at home, Kasnikowski No. 238 and a late main-draw addition
- Break points saved: Guerrieri 62.9% vs Kasnikowski 54.5%
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostAndrea GuerrieriEstimated chance60%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets have been the most stretched phase for both players, averaging nearly ten games.
- Guerrieri's second sets average 9.93 total games; Kasnikowski's average 9.92
- Guerrieri has three second-set tiebreaks, Kasnikowski three
- Both players' second-set win rates are below 50%
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Near-identical point-winning rates and long set patterns point to a match that hovers around the line.
- Guerrieri's hard-court matches average 24.8 games; Kasnikowski's average 23.1
- Both players win roughly 52% of hard-court points, suggesting tight games
- Guerrieri has played four of 14 hard matches with a tiebreak
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 23.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Combined first-set games sit right around the line, so this is close to a coin flip.
- Guerrieri's first sets average 9.43 total games; Kasnikowski's average 9.83
- Guerrieri has one first-set tiebreak in 14 matches, Kasnikowski three in 12
- Both men serve well enough to hold often early
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance51%

Sets0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have frequently been pushed the distance, and each has a losing second-set record that drags matches longer.
- Guerrieri's hard-court matches average 2.64 sets; Kasnikowski's average 2.42
- Guerrieri's scorelines include 8 wins in three sets from 14 matches; Kasnikowski has three 2-1 wins and two 1-2 losses
- Both players' set-2 records are losing ones (Guerrieri 5-9, Kasnikowski 5-7)
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Guerrieri has a modest edge in first-set outcomes and the better ranking and crowd support.
- Guerrieri is 8-6 in first sets across 14 hard-court best-of-three matches
- Kasnikowski is 6-6 in first sets across 12 such matches
- Guerrieri starts at home as the higher-ranked seed
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostAndrea GuerrieriEstimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets have been the weaker phase for both, leaving Guerrieri only a slight overall edge.
- Guerrieri is 5-9 in second sets over 14 hard-court matches
- Kasnikowski is 5-7 in second sets over 12 hard-court matches
- Both average under 10 total games in the second set
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostAndrea GuerrieriEstimated chance53%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Kasnikowski's clean serving keeps the combined double-fault total usually under the line.
- Kasnikowski averages only 1.5 double faults per match on hard
- Combined recent average is about 5.9 per match
- Guerrieri's 4.4 average is the outlier
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 6.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kasnikowski's serve supplies most of the ace count, with Guerrieri adding a few from the left side.
- Guerrieri averages 3.3 aces per hard-court match; Kasnikowski 4.9
- Combined recent average is around 8 aces per match
- Kasnikowski has the higher first-serve points won at 73%
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Most of both players' recent matches have finished without a tiebreak.
- Guerrieri had no tiebreak in 10 of 14 hard matches
- Kasnikowski had no tiebreak in 6 of 12 hard matches
- Guerrieri's opening win was 6-2 6-3
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance56%

Prediction history

Andrea Guerrieri: 6/9 recent winner projections matched

6 of 9 comparable winner projections favouring Andrea Guerrieri matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Andrea Guerrieri9 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

12 Jul·ATP Umag

#227Andrea Guerrieri0-2#212Federico Agustin Gomez

BetBugsAndrea Guerrieri to win·55%

Missed

12 Jul 2026

ATP Umag

#227Andrea Guerrieri0-2#212Federico Agustin Gomez

Andrea Guerrieri to win

55%probability

Federico Agustin Gomez won

Missed

7 Jul·Trieste - Italy

#227Andrea Guerrieri2-0#319Oriol Roca Batalla

BetBugsAndrea Guerrieri to win·58%

Matched

7 Jul 2026

Trieste - Italy

#227Andrea Guerrieri2-0#319Oriol Roca Batalla

Andrea Guerrieri to win

58%probability

Andrea Guerrieri won

Matched

22 Jun·ATP Wimbledon

#230Andrea Guerrieri2-1#242David Goffin

BetBugsAndrea Guerrieri to win·62%

Matched

22 Jun 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#230Andrea Guerrieri2-1#242David Goffin

Andrea Guerrieri to win

62%probability

Andrea Guerrieri won

Matched

12 Jun·Cattolica - Italy

#396Francesco Forti2-0#231Andrea Guerrieri

BetBugsAndrea Guerrieri to win·62%

Missed

12 Jun 2026

Cattolica - Italy

#396Francesco Forti2-0#231Andrea Guerrieri

Andrea Guerrieri to win

62%probability

Francesco Forti won

Missed

10 Jun·Cattolica - Italy

#651Alexander Vasilev0-2#231Andrea Guerrieri

BetBugsAndrea Guerrieri to win·78%

Matched

10 Jun 2026

Cattolica - Italy

#651Alexander Vasilev0-2#231Andrea Guerrieri

Andrea Guerrieri to win

78%probability

Andrea Guerrieri won

Matched

Previous match context available

Andrea Guerrieri

10W 5L

6-2 6-3#291Abedallah Shelbayh

7-5 6-1#236August Holmgren

6-4 4-6 6-0#314Anton Matusevich

3-6 7-6(8) 7-6(2)#95Jesper De Jong

6-3 6-7(4) 6-3#171Francesco Maestrelli

6-2 6-2 6-4#9Alex De Minaur

6-2 6-4#430Aziz Dougaz

3-6 6-4 6-1#176Joel Schwaerzler

6-3 6-7(4) 6-2#236August Holmgren

6-3 6-3#161Soon-Woo Kwon

6-4 1-6 6-1#531Alexander Donski

7-6(4) 6-1#176Joel Schwaerzler

0-6 6-3 6-4#178Daniil Glinka

4-6 7-5 6-2#282Michele Ribecai

6-4 4-6 6-2#465Viktor Durasovic

Maks Kasnikowski

7W 8L

6-2 6-1#276Cezar Cretu

7-6(3) 6-1#267Philip Henning

6-3 6-0#9Alex De Minaur

7-6(4) 6-4#260Jay Dylan Hara Friend

6-0 2-6 6-1#171Francesco Maestrelli

6-3 7-6(1)#534Christian Langmo

4-6 7-5 6-0#370Ivan Marrero Curbelo

7-5 7-6(5)#375Alejo Sanchez Quilez

6-2 4-6 6-4#181Elmer Moller

7-6(2) 4-6 6-4#152Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

2-6 7-6(4) 6-1#370Ivan Marrero Curbelo

6-3 6-4#267Philip Henning

6-1 3-6 6-3#262Frederico Ferreira Silva

6-2 6-2#107Otto Virtanen

5-7 6-4 7-5#288Hynek Barton

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

AGAndrea GuerrieriGuerrieri

Last 15

2–4

9 core stats · 3 even

Maks KasnikowskiKasnikowskiMK

Maks Kasnikowski carries the stronger recent form — Andrea Guerrieri's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 0–4 · 1 even

1st Serve In15/15 · 14/1556.5%+2.6pp59.1%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/1570.6%+1.0pp71.6%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/1552.6%—52.4%

Aces / Match15/15 · 14/153.3+1.14.4

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/154.42.8 fewer1.6

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/1540.1%—39.5%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/1539.5%+2.7pp36.8%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/1562.9%+7.9pp55.0%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/1551.3%—51.1%

Serve · 0–4 · 1 even

56.5%1st Serve In15/15 · 14/15+2.6pp59.1%

70.6%1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+1.0pp71.6%

52.6%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/15—52.4%

3.3Aces / Match15/15 · 14/15+1.14.4

4.4Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/152.8 fewer1.6

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

40.1%Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/15—39.5%

Pressure · 2–0

39.5%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/15+2.7pp36.8%

62.9%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/15+7.9pp55.0%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

51.3%Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/15—51.1%