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Predictions graded

Adrienn Nagy #480Hungary2Iva Primorac #429Croatia0

Sets 6-3 · 6-3Mon 12 Oct 2026, 10:27 Predictions gradedQ3Clay

Predictions4–544%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageIva Primorac · 51 places

Adrienn Nagy

Hungary

Nagy, 25, reached a career-high No. 504 in June 2023. Her supplied player profile lists her at No. 490; hand, height and declared surface preference are not established here.

Current ranking: #480
Peak ranking: #504 · 2023
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: —
Height: —

Iva Primorac

Croatia

Croatian player listed at No. 429 and recorded with an indoor hard-court surface preference, although her recent match record is almost entirely on clay. Age, career-high ranking, hand and height were not established.

Current ranking: #429
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: —
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Oct 2026, 01:11 · Europe/Bucharest

A place in the Lisbon main draw on clay comes down to two players separated by roughly 50 ranking places.

Primorac, the stronger starter on clay, is the slightly more likely winner. At 1.95 the price gives her a fair case for value, while Nagy at 1.85 asks more than her recent record supports.

Context

This is a 125-level event on clay, and the main draw begins on 13 October, the day after this match. Both players came through the opening qualifying round, so the winner converts the week into a main-draw place and the ranking points attached to it. The surface matters because Nagy has recent wins on both hard and clay, while Primorac's recent record is almost entirely on clay. The stake is opportunity and points rather than a confirmed physical advantage.
- WTA 125 Lisboa Belém Open runs 12–18 October 2026
- Clay courts, $100,000 prize money, main draw begins Tuesday 13 October
- Both players won their first qualifying round, so this is the final qualifying round
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 01:10 · Europe/Bucharest
The clay sample is small but consistent in shape: 2.42 sets and 23.8 games per match, with a 6-6 win-loss record. Primorac's clay matches have been much shorter, so whether Nagy can extend rallies and force a decider shapes this contest. The tiebreak count, six of 12, is the striking detail and flags a match that can turn on a few points.
- Nagy clay setEvidence: 12 matches, 14 Jul–11 Oct 2026, 23.8 games average, 2.42 sets average
- Five of 12 clay matches went to three sets (three 2-1 wins, two 1-2 losses)
- Six of 12 clay matches featured a tiebreak
Nagy's ranking of about No. 480 understates her recent results: she has beaten Voloshchuk, ranked roughly 150 places higher, twice in 11 days. The win came from a set all and went the distance, so she reaches this qualifying final with more time on court than Primorac. The caveat is that both wins came at 125 and ITF level against the same opponent, so they are a form signal rather than proof of a higher level.
- Nagy d. Voloshchuk 6-3 7-6(2) 6-3, Lisbon qualifying,
- Nagy d. Voloshchuk 6-4 6-3, W75 Quinta do Lago, 30 September 2026
- Voloshchuk ranked about No. 333; Nagy listed around No. 480
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 01:10 · Europe/Bucharest
Primorac's straight-sets opener means a shorter match than Nagy's three-setter, leaving her relatively less time on court before this final qualifying round. She arrives as the marginally higher-ranked player at No. 429 and has a clay-heavy recent schedule behind her. The win came against an unranked opponent, so it is a modest form marker rather than a statement result.
- Primorac d. Franco Dias 6-2 6-3, Lisbon qualifying,
- Primorac listed No. 429, about 50 places above Nagy
- All 15 of her tracked recent matches were on clay
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 01:10 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.95
The read
Primorac sits slightly higher in the rankings, has the stronger clay set1 record and won her qualifying opener in straight sets, while Nagy needed three sets and has a level clay record.
- Clay setEvidence: Primorac 8-6 in 14 matches, Nagy 6-6 in 12
- Primorac is WTA No. 429, Nagy No. 480
- Primorac's clay set1 record 9-5; Nagy 5-7
- Recent clay form: Primorac won her last completed clay match 6-2 6-3, Nagy came through a three-setter
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostIva PrimoracEstimated chance55%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Nagy's clay matches regularly run past this number, and with two similarly ranked players a longer contest is the more natural outcome.
- Nagy clay matches average 23.8 games
- Primorac clay matches average 18.0 games
- Nagy has played five three-setters in 12 clay matches
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 20.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets have been the shorter phase for Primorac in particular, with no tiebreaks recorded there in her clay sample.
- Primorac clay set2 averages 7.93 total games
- Primorac has had zero clay set2 tiebreaks in 14 matches
- Nagy clay set2 averages 9.75 total games
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Primorac's opening sets have generally been short and decisive, which keeps the set1 total under this line more often than not.
- Primorac clay set1 averages 8.79 total games
- Nagy clay set1 averages 10.0 total games
- Primorac has played only one clay tiebreak in 14 matches
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance53%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' clay results have more often ended in two sets, with Primorac rarely extending matches beyond that.
- Primorac clay scorelines: seven 2-0 wins, five 0-2 losses
- Nagy: seven straight-set results in 12 clay matches
- Primorac averages 2.14 sets per clay match
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Primorac has been the stronger starter on clay, winning nearly two-thirds of her opening sets while Nagy has lost more of hers than she has won.
- Primorac clay set1: 9 wins, 5 losses in 14 matches
- Primorac set1 games 5.0 won vs 3.79 lost
- Nagy clay set1: 5 wins, 7 losses in 12 matches
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostIva PrimoracEstimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets are almost evenly split for both players, with Primorac holding only a marginal overall edge in the match.
- Primorac clay set2: 7-7 in 14 matches
- Nagy clay set2: 6-6 in 12 matches
- Primorac's clay matches average 2.14 sets
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostIva PrimoracEstimated chance53%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most of Primorac's clay matches have finished without a tiebreak, and her short sets pull the combined expectation down.
- Primorac: one clay match with a tiebreak in 14
- Nagy: six clay matches with a tiebreak in 12
- Primorac's clay set totals average 18 games
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance65%

Previous match context available

Adrienn Nagy

8W 7L

6-3 6-7(2) 6-3#333Angelina Voloshchuk

6-4 6-2#114Lisa Pigato

6-4 6-3#333Angelina Voloshchuk

6-1 6-0—Polina Isakova

6-2 6-1#190Samira De Stefano

6-3 7-5#348Aran Teixido Garcia

6-3 7-6(3)#774Sophia Biolay

6-3 2-6 6-4#736Teodora Miron

7-6(8) 6-4#323Jessica Pieri

6-4 0-6 6-4#466Maria Sara Popa

4-6 6-3 6-1—Mariia Drobysheva

6-1 6-2—Juliana Nicole Singeorzan

7-6(3) 6-4#359Radka Zelnickova

7-6(5) 6-2#170Anna Siskova

6-4 6-7(5) 7-6(6)#680Petra Sedlackova

Iva Primorac

8W 7L

6-2 6-3—Teresa Franco Dias

6-3 6-4#381Dalila Spiteri

6-2 2-6 6-3#891Jamilah Snells

6-4 6-2#293Francesca Pace

6-0 6-1—Laia Gavalda Cruz

6-2 6-2#866Ashley Lahey

7-6(4) 6-2—Lea Fojcik

6-1 6-2—Anna Cabassers Morros

2-6 7-6(4) 1-0 ret.#840Paula Ormaechea

6-1 6-0#99Julia Grabher

6-2 6-4#426Julia Adams

5-7 6-1 6-3#386Lia Karatancheva

6-2 6-1#721Rose Marie Nijkamp

6-3 6-1#898Sevil Yuldasheva

6-4 6-2#575Antonia Stoyanov

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

ANAdrienn NagyNagy

Last 15

4–3

9 core stats · 2 even

Iva PrimoracPrimoracIP

Adrienn Nagy carries the stronger recent form — Iva Primorac's route runs through return.

Serve · 2–1 · 2 even

1st Serve In66.6%+3.6pp63.0%

1st Serve Won59.5%+2.8pp62.3%

2nd Serve Won41.8%+3.3pp38.5%

Aces / Match1.2—1.1

Double Faults / Match3.9—3.9

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won46.1%+3.8pp49.9%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted56.9%+10.0pp46.9%

Break Pts Saved57.1%+16.1pp41.0%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won49.9%+1.7pp51.6%

Serve · 2–1 · 2 even

66.6%1st Serve In+3.6pp63.0%

59.5%1st Serve Won+2.8pp62.3%

41.8%2nd Serve Won+3.3pp38.5%

1.2Aces / Match—1.1

3.9Double Faults / Match—3.9

Return · 0–1

46.1%Return Pts Won+3.8pp49.9%

Pressure · 2–0

56.9%Break Pts Converted+10.0pp46.9%

57.1%Break Pts Saved+16.1pp41.0%

Points · 0–1

49.9%Total Pts Won+1.7pp51.6%