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Predictions graded

Timofei Derepasko #662Russia2Filip Peliwo #661Canada0

Sets 6-3 · 7-6Wed 7 Oct 2026, 04:19 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions6–367%

Edges3–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageFilip Peliwo · 1 places

Timofei Derepasko

Russia

Derepasko, 19, is the right-hander in this matchup. His highest ranking, No. 634, came in June 2026.

Current ranking: #662
Peak ranking: #634 · 2026
Current age: 19
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Filip Peliwo

Canada

Peliwo reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 161 in May 2018. The ITF lists hard as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #661
Peak ranking: #161 · 2018
Current age: 32
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 6 Oct 2026, 15:34 · Europe/Bucharest

Two players separated by a single ranking place, No. 662 against No. 661, meet in the Wuning round of 16 with a quarterfinal place on the line.

Derepasko's 6-2 hard-court run and five straight-set wins give him the slighter edge over Peliwo's longer 9-5 sample, making him the likelier winner of a near coin-flip. At 1.9 he is priced about right; Peliwo at 1.8 asks more than his record supports, and no quoted price here is worth taking.

Context

Derepasko, 19, opened Wuning with a 6-2 7-6(4) win over Sergey Fomin, the tournament's fifth seed and world No. 294, an opponent ranked about 370 places above him. It matters because it is the first main-draw test of his run and shows he beat a seeded, higher-ranked player on a hard court rather than only winning at ITF level. The win was not one-sided throughout: he needed a second-set tiebreak to close it, so it reads as a competitive upset rather than a dominant performance.
- Derepasko beat fifth seed Sergey Fomin 6-2 7-6(4) in the first round at Wuning .
- Sergey Fomin is the fifth seed and is ranked No. 294, while Derepasko is listed at No. 662.
ConfirmedSources checked 6 Oct 2026, 15:32 · Europe/Bucharest
Wuning stages the third edition of its Challenger on hard courts from 5 to 11 October 2026, giving this match a late-season Asian hard-court setting. The surface is identical for both men, so the fixture rests on current form and match-ups rather than on conditions that favour one side. Because the event is only in its third year and both players entered as alternates, neither man carries meaningful tournament history or a title to defend here.
- The 2026 Wuning Challenger III is the third edition of the event and ran from 5 to 11 October 2026 on hard courts in Wuning, China.
ConfirmedSources checked 6 Oct 2026, 15:32 · Europe/Bucharest2026 Wuning Challenger IIIen.wikipedia.org · 5 Oct 2026
Both men are in the Wuning singles draw as alternates, so they entered through the entry list rather than as direct acceptances, and neither is seeded. It matters as a level check on this fixture: both sit outside the automatic entry cut at a hard-court Challenger during a crowded stretch of the Asian swing. The circumstance is identical for both, so it frames the standard of the match without separating the two players.
- Timofei Derepasko and Filip Peliwo were among the players who received entry into the singles main draw as alternates at the 2026 Wuning Challenger III.
ConfirmedSources checked 6 Oct 2026, 15:32 · Europe/Bucharest2026 Wuning Challenger IIIen.wikipedia.org · 5 Oct 2026
Both men are into the second main-draw round at Wuning, so this is the round of 16 with a quarterfinal place on the line. It matters because neither is seeded, and a Challenger quarterfinal is a real step for two players ranked outside the top 600. The stage sets the stakes but does not change the matchup itself, which is an almost even ranking pairing at No. 662 and No. 661.
- The Derepasko-Peliwo singles match was listed as a round-of-16 (1/8-final) tie at the 2026 Wuning Challenger III.
ConfirmedSources checked 6 Oct 2026, 15:32 · Europe/BucharestWuning 3 - Derepasko vs Peliwowww.flashscore.in · 6 Oct 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.90
The read
His recent hard-court form is the strongest single line of evidence here, including a straight-sets win over a seed ranked far above him.
- Hard-court record 6-2 in the tracked window, with set1 won 6 of 8 and set2 won 5 of 8
- Beat fifth seed Sergey Fomin (No. 294) 6-2 7-6(4) in the Wuning first round
- Ranked No. 662 against Peliwo's No. 661, so ranking gives no clear separation
- Won 5 of 8 hard matches in straight sets, losing 2-0 only twice
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonTimofei DerepaskoEstimated chance53%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Most matches for both players finish in two sets, which generally keeps the total at or below this line.
- Derepasko's 8 hard matches average 19.75 games, with sets averaging 9.25 games
- Peliwo's set1 averages 9.21 games and set2 9.43 games
- Derepasko won 5 of 8 hard matches 2-0 and Peliwo 7 of 14
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 20.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The first-set game averages for both players fall just below the line, suggesting more 6-3 or 6-4 finishes than tiebreaks.
- Derepasko's first sets average 9.25 games with no tiebreaks in 8 hard matches
- Peliwo's first sets average 9.21 games across 14 hard matches
- Derepasko's set1 game split is 5.5 won to 3.75 lost
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' second-set game averages sit under the line and tiebreaks in that set are rare for them.
- Derepasko's second sets average 9.25 games with one tiebreak in 8 matches
- Peliwo's second sets average 9.43 games with one tiebreak in 14 matches
- Combined second-set tiebreak count is one across 22 tracked sets
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Straight-set results dominate both records, and neither player has been regularly extended in this window.
- Derepasko's hard scorelines: five 2-0 wins, two 0-2 losses, one 2-1 win
- Peliwo's hard scorelines: seven 2-0 wins, four 0-2 losses, two 2-1 wins, one 1-2 loss
- Average match length 2.125 sets for Derepasko and 2.214 for Peliwo
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance79%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.90
The read
He has started strongly in most recent hard matches and just took an opening set off a higher-ranked seed.
- Won set1 in 6 of 8 hard matches
- Averages 5.5 games won and 3.75 lost in first sets
- Broke first in the Fomin win, taking set1 6-2
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonTimofei DerepaskoEstimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.90
The read
His second sets are nearly as strong as his first, so the edge carries over if the opener is tight.
- Won set2 in 5 of 8 hard matches
- Averages 5.0 games won and 4.25 lost in second sets
- Closed the Fomin match 7-6(4) in set2
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonTimofei DerepaskoEstimated chance53%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tiebreaks are the exception in both records, with each player's wins usually settled by a break.
- Derepasko had 1 tiebreak in 8 hard matches
- Peliwo had 5 tiebreaks in 14 hard matches
- Both players' straight-set wins mostly ended with margins of three or more games
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance72%

Previous match context available

Timofei Derepasko

8W 7L

6-2 7-6(4)#294Sergey Fomin

6-3 6-2—Matic Dimic

2-6 7-6(2) 6-4#846Francesco Ferrari

6-4 6-3#154Ilia Simakin

7-5 6-3#763Taisei Ichikawa

6-3 6-3—Stefan Storch

6-3 6-2#331Cruz Hewitt

6-3 4-6 6-4#852Sam Ryan Ziegann

6-3 6-4#881Taiyo Yamanaka

6-2 6-0—Minhthien Nguyen

6-4 6-3—Dimitar Kisimov

6-3 6-0#889Alessandro Bellifemine

6-2 6-1—Egor Shcherbakov

6-0 6-2#310Sean Cuenin

7-6(7) 5-1 ret.—Loan Lestir

Filip Peliwo

9W 6L

7-6(5) 6-1#685Max Purcell

6-2 6-4#86Mattia Bellucci

6-3 6-3#752Kuan-Shou Chen

6-4 6-2#439Enzo Aguiard

6-1 7-5—Xing Dao Chen

6-1 4-2 ret.#201Moise Kouame

1-6 6-3 6-4#510Tai Sach

6-1 6-4#852Sam Ryan Ziegann

6-3 6-4—Arjun Rathi

7-6(5) 6-2#409Arthur Weber

7-6(2) 6-3#450Kenta Miyoshi

6-1 4-6 7-6(6)#865Grigoriy Lomakin

6-2 6-3#422Omar Jasika

6-3 7-6(3)#898Sheng Tang

3-6 6-2 6-4#841Joshua Charlton

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

TDTimofei DerepaskoDerepasko

Last 15

3–3

9 core stats · 3 even

Filip PeliwoPeliwoFP

Dead-even recent form — the edges are in pressure.

Serve · 1–2 · 2 even

1st Serve In15/15 · 14/1551.8%+6.5pp58.3%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/1571.5%—72.0%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/1546.6%—47.0%

Aces / Match15/15 · 14/154.3+0.43.9

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/153.20.5 fewer2.7

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/1541.0%+1.0pp40.0%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/1544.1%+4.5pp39.6%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/1558.1%+13.2pp71.3%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/1550.6%—51.0%

Serve · 1–2 · 2 even

51.8%1st Serve In15/15 · 14/15+6.5pp58.3%

71.5%1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/15—72.0%

46.6%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/15—47.0%

4.3Aces / Match15/15 · 14/15+0.43.9

3.2Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/150.5 fewer2.7

Return · 1–0

41.0%Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+1.0pp40.0%

Pressure · 1–1

44.1%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/15+4.5pp39.6%

58.1%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/15+13.2pp71.3%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

50.6%Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/15—51.0%