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Predictions graded

Pablo Llamas Ruiz #144Spain2Petr Nesterov #2981

Sets 3-6 · 7-6 · 6-3Thu 8 Oct 2026, 14:51 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions3–538%

Edges0–30%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantagePablo Llamas Ruiz · 154 places

Pablo Llamas Ruiz

Spain

ITF lists clay as his preferred surface. He reached a career-best No. 116 in July 2026 after ending 2025 ranked No. 210.

Current ranking: #144
Peak ranking: #116 · 2026
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Petr Nesterov

Born 7 March 2003 and right-handed with a two-handed backhand. Public profile results identify a recent career-best singles ranking of No. 365; no reliable preferred-surface or current injury-trajectory detail was found.

Current ranking: #298
Peak ranking: #365
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 7 Oct 2026, 22:07 · Europe/Bucharest

Nesterov's 5-1 hard-court run meets the higher-ranked Llamas Ruiz in Villena's second round, and Llamas Ruiz stays the likelier winner.

The 1.44 match price asks far more than that, so Nesterov at 2.6 to win the match and 2.4 to take the second set both carry potential value. Llamas Ruiz at 1.5 for the opening set does not.

Context

Nesterov's second sets are where he has been most reliable in this six-match stretch, and it is also the set where Llamas Ruiz has been merely level at 6-4. Four of those six matches went the distance, so the second-set edge sits inside a short window rather than a settled pattern.
- The hard-court set evidence covers six completed, non-retired matches from 27 September to 6 October 2026.
- Nesterov won five of six second sets and three of six first sets.
- Four of the six matches went to a third set.
- Average total games per match: 25.0.
The contrasting entry routes define the immediate tournament setting for this fixture. Nesterov had to progress through qualifying before reaching the main draw, while Llamas Ruiz began as a seed. The labels establish draw status but do not record the length or physical cost of those earlier matches.
- The singles draw listed Llamas Ruiz as the fifth seed at No. 144 on 28 September 2026.
- Nesterov entered the main draw from qualifying.
ReportedSources checked 7 Oct 2026, 22:05 · Europe/Bucharest2026 Ferrero Challengeren.wikipedia.org · 5 Oct 2026
The 80% first-serve-points figure gives a concrete marker from his first match on Villena's hard court. It describes a recent part of the performance Nesterov will face in this fixture. The second-set tiebreak shows that the opening scoreline included a close passage.
- Llamas Ruiz won his opening Villena match 6-1, 7-6 against Luca Nardi.
- He won 80% of points behind his first serve.
ReportedSources checked 7 Oct 2026, 22:05 · Europe/BucharestBetzona match previewbetzona.ru · 7 Oct 2026
The 187-point total provides the concrete ranking anchor for this career-high milestone. It adds current competitive context to a match he reached through qualifying. The milestone records a ranking achievement, not a documented change in his health or playing style.
- Nesterov reached No. 298 with 187 ranking points during the Villena tournament week.
ReportedSources checked 7 Oct 2026, 22:05 · Europe/BucharestBetzona match previewbetzona.ru · 7 Oct 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Set 1 WinnerlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Pablo Llamas Ruiz

1.50fair 1.75

BetBugs 57% · Market 66.7%

−9.7ppshort

Llamas Ruiz starts hard-court matches well, winning the opening set in 60% of his sample, while Nesterov is even in first sets.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Llamas Ruiz has the higher ranking and has faced stronger hard-court opposition, with recent wins over players ranked near 170-250.
- Llamas Ruiz is ranked 144, while Nesterov is ranked 298.
- Llamas Ruiz is 5-5 on hard in 10 matches; Nesterov is 5-1 on hard but mostly against lower-ranked opponents.
- Llamas Ruiz beat Luca Nardi (rank 251) 2-0 in his latest match on 5 Oct.
- Llamas Ruiz has a 6-4 first-set and 6-4 second-set record in hard best-of-3 matches.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonPablo Llamas RuizEstimated chance55%

Games2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Their combined hard-court matches average around 24.5 games, and both have played a high share of three-setters, pointing to a close, lengthy match.
- Llamas Ruiz's hard matches average 24.1 total games; Nesterov's average 25.0.
- Llamas Ruiz's 10 hard matches include 4 three-setters; Nesterov's 6 include 4 three-setters.
- Both players have average match durations over 110 minutes on hard.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 24.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Llamas Ruiz's second sets tend to be longer, averaging over 10 games, which supports the over.
- Llamas Ruiz's second sets average 10.4 games on hard.
- Nesterov's second sets average 9.5 games on hard.
- Llamas Ruiz has had one second-set tiebreak in 10 hard matches.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Llamas Ruiz starts hard-court matches well, winning the opening set in 60% of his sample, while Nesterov is even in first sets.
- Llamas Ruiz has a 6-4 first-set record in 10 hard best-of-3 matches.
- Llamas Ruiz won the first set in 3 of his last 4 hard matches.
- Nesterov has a 3-3 first-set record in 6 hard matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostPablo Llamas RuizEstimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Llamas Ruiz has a higher rate of straight-set matches, and his recent form includes a clean two-set win.
- Llamas Ruiz has 6 straight-set results in 10 hard matches.
- Nesterov has 2 straight-set wins in 6 hard matches.
- Llamas Ruiz's latest match was a 2-0 win over Luca Nardi.
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.40
The read
Nesterov is notably strong in second sets, often recovering after a slow start to dominate the set.
- Nesterov has a 5-1 second-set record in 6 hard matches.
- Nesterov won the second set in 5 of his last 6 hard matches.
- Llamas Ruiz has a 6-4 second-set record in 10 hard matches.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostPetr NesterovEstimated chance52%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Nesterov's efficient serving can keep sets from reaching 6-6, and his recent matches mostly avoided tiebreaks.
- Nesterov has had only one tiebreak in 6 hard matches.
- Nesterov's hard-court serve metrics include 72.7% first-serve points won and 6.7 aces per match.
- Llamas Ruiz has had a tiebreak in 5 of 10 hard matches.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance55%

Prediction history

Pablo Llamas Ruiz: 8/11 recent winner projections matched

8 of 11 comparable winner projections favouring Pablo Llamas Ruiz matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Pablo Llamas Ruiz11 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

29 Jul·Vancouver - Canada

#900Keegan Rice2-1#117Pablo Llamas Ruiz

BetBugsPablo Llamas Ruiz to win·65%

Missed

29 Jul 2026

Vancouver - Canada

#900Keegan Rice2-1#117Pablo Llamas Ruiz

Pablo Llamas Ruiz to win

65%probability

Keegan Rice won

Missed

21 Jul·Bloomfield Hills - USA

#616Bruno Kuzuhara0-2#117Pablo Llamas Ruiz

BetBugsPablo Llamas Ruiz to win·72%

Matched

21 Jul 2026

Bloomfield Hills - USA

#616Bruno Kuzuhara0-2#117Pablo Llamas Ruiz

Pablo Llamas Ruiz to win

72%probability

Pablo Llamas Ruiz won

Matched

25 Jun·ATP Wimbledon

#119Pablo Llamas Ruiz1-3#193Tristan Boyer

BetBugsPablo Llamas Ruiz to win·62%

Missed

25 Jun 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#119Pablo Llamas Ruiz1-3#193Tristan Boyer

Pablo Llamas Ruiz to win

62%probability

Tristan Boyer won

Missed

22 Jun·ATP Wimbledon

#120Pablo Llamas Ruiz2-0#240Dan Added

BetBugsPablo Llamas Ruiz to win·72%

Matched

22 Jun 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#120Pablo Llamas Ruiz2-0#240Dan Added

Pablo Llamas Ruiz to win

72%probability

Pablo Llamas Ruiz won

Matched

3 Jun·Perugia - Italy

#122Pablo Llamas Ruiz2-0#465Jacopo Vasami

BetBugsPablo Llamas Ruiz to win·78%

Matched

3 Jun 2026

Perugia - Italy

#122Pablo Llamas Ruiz2-0#465Jacopo Vasami

Pablo Llamas Ruiz to win

78%probability

Pablo Llamas Ruiz won

Matched

Previous match context available

Pablo Llamas Ruiz

6W 9L

6-1 7-6(5)#251Luca Nardi

5-7 6-3 6-3#231Raul Brancaccio

6-3 4-6 6-3#232Kimmer Coppejans

7-6(3) 6-3#110Lloyd Harris

6-2 4-6 7-6(11)#172Vitaliy Sachko

7-6(3) 7-5#170Alex Bolt

6-4 4-3 ret.#110Lloyd Harris

6-3 7-5#125Francisco Comesana

6-3 6-4#111Alexander Shevchenko

2-6 6-3 6-1#88Marcos Giron

6-4 3-6 6-4#590Keegan Rice

6-2 4-6 7-6(5)#149Mark Lajal

6-3 6-4#683Bruno Kuzuhara

6-1 6-2 6-4#82Zachary Svajda

7-5 6-7(4) 7-6(2) 6-3#209Tristan Boyer

Petr Nesterov

10W 5L

6-3 7-6(4)#784Carles Hernandez 3-6 6-4 6-1#288Hynek Barton

3-6 6-3 6-2—Charles Chen

7-5 1-6 6-4#594Goncalo Marques

6-4 6-2#330Marko Topo

6-4 4-6 6-3#700Giorgio Tabacco

6-4 1-6 6-0#361Carlos Taberner

7-6(6) 3-6 6-4#619Yanaki Milev

6-7(3) 7-6(4) 6-3#559Dimitris Sakellaridis

6-1 7-6(5)#392Gabriele Piraino

7-5 6-3#326Radu Mihai Papoe

6-4 6-1#610Adrian Andreev

6-4 7-6(5)#381Sebastian Sorger

7-5 6-1#556Lorenzo Angelini

3-6 6-3 6-1#295Carl Emil Overbeck

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

PRPablo Llamas RuizRuiz

Last 15

3–6

9 core stats · 0 even

Petr NesterovNesterovPN

Petr Nesterov carries the stronger recent form — Pablo Llamas Ruiz's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In66.8%+5.8pp61.0%

1st Serve Won67.5%+3.1pp70.6%

2nd Serve Won51.6%+2.1pp49.5%

Aces / Match3.1+0.73.8

Double Faults / Match1.41.4 fewer2.8

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won36.4%+7.2pp43.6%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted34.9%+13.1pp48.0%

Break Pts Saved55.7%+5.8pp61.5%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won49.2%+3.6pp52.8%

Serve · 3–2

66.8%1st Serve In+5.8pp61.0%

67.5%1st Serve Won+3.1pp70.6%

51.6%2nd Serve Won+2.1pp49.5%

3.1Aces / Match+0.73.8

1.4Double Faults / Match1.4 fewer2.8

Return · 0–1

36.4%Return Pts Won+7.2pp43.6%

Pressure · 0–2

34.9%Break Pts Converted+13.1pp48.0%

55.7%Break Pts Saved+5.8pp61.5%

Points · 0–1

49.2%Total Pts Won+3.6pp52.8%