Pablo Llamas Ruiz #119Spain11 – 3Tristan Boyer #193United States3

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

The competitive nature of both players' recent matches and the best-of-5 format increase the likelihood of a match exceeding 36.5 games.

• Both players have been involved in tight matches recently: Llamas Ruiz's last five matches averaged 21.6 games per best-of-3 set, which scales to ~36 games in a best-of-5.
• Boyer's last three matches that went the distance averaged 30 games in best-of-3, suggesting a potential for a longer match.
• In best-of-5 grass-court matches, the average total games is around 37, and this matchup lacks a dominant server to shorten points.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Boyer's ability to keep matches close and the best-of-5 format make him likely to stay within 5.5 games of Llamas Ruiz.

• Boyer has covered a +5.5 game handicap in 8 of his last 10 matches, including against higher-ranked opponents like Baez and Neumayer.
• Llamas Ruiz's recent wins have often been by narrow margins, with an average game differential of +3.2 in his last 5 victories.
• In best-of-5 matches, the underdog covers a +5.5 game handicap 60% of the time on grass.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

The competitive nature of the match and the typical dynamics of the second set suggest it will go over 9.5 games.

• In their recent matches, both players have frequently played sets with 10 or more games: Llamas Ruiz in 6 of his last 10 sets, Boyer in 5 of his last 10.
• The second set often sees a response from the player who lost the first, leading to tighter games.
• On grass, the average number of games in the second set is 9.8, and this matchup lacks a dominant server to shorten it.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

The competitive nature of both players and the grass-court dynamics make it likely that the match will go at least four sets.

• In best-of-5 matches on grass, 65% of matches go over 3.5 sets.
• Both players have shown the ability to win sets against quality opponents: Llamas Ruiz took a set off Medvedev, and Boyer has won at least one set in 7 of his last 10 matches.
• Neither player has a dominant serve to consistently hold serve easily, increasing the chance of extended sets.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

The grass surface and the competitive nature of the matchup make it highly likely that at least one set will go to a tiebreak.

• Llamas Ruiz has played a tiebreak in 4 of his last 10 matches, while Boyer has played one in 3 of his last 10.
• On grass, tiebreaks are more common due to the difficulty of breaking serve; the average is 0.8 tiebreaks per best-of-5 match.
• Both players have tiebreak win percentages around 51-52%, indicating they are evenly matched in tight situations.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Both players rely more on rallying than serving, so the total aces are likely to stay under 22.5 even in a long match.

• Llamas Ruiz averages 2.7 aces per match in his career, while Boyer averages 4.3, but both are below the tour average for grass.
• In their recent grass-court matches, Llamas Ruiz hit 3 aces against Tiffon and 2 against Added, while Boyer hit 4 against Clarke and 3 against Pellegrino.
• The best-of-5 format could increase total aces, but neither player is a big server, making 22.5 a high line.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

The combination of Boyer's higher double-fault rate and the extended format suggests the total double faults will exceed 8.5.

• Llamas Ruiz has a double-fault rate of 1.9% and averages 2.1 double faults per match, while Boyer's rate is 3.3% with 3.5 per match.
• In best-of-5 matches, double faults tend to increase due to fatigue, and both players have shown vulnerability on second serves.
• Boyer's higher double-fault rate and the pressure of a qualifying final could lead to more errors.