Keegan Rice #900Canada22 – 1Pablo Llamas Ruiz #117Spain1

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91

The read

Rice's consistent ability to keep matches close, even in losses, and Llamas Ruiz's tendency for tight matches make Rice +3.5 games a strong handicap play.

• In Rice's last 15 matches, he has covered a +3.5 game handicap in 12 of 15 matches (80%), including against top-200 opponents like Noguchi (lost 10-15 but covered) and Gea (lost 6-12 but covered).
• Llamas Ruiz's last 15 matches saw him win by more than 3.5 games in only 5 of 15 matches (33%), with an average margin of victory of 1.8 games.
• On hard court, Rice's last 12 matches had an average game differential of -0.8, and he covered +3.5 in 10 of 12 matches.
• Llamas Ruiz's 2 hard-court matches had margins of +5 and -3, but the small sample and Rice's competitiveness suggest a close match.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80

The read

Both players' recent matches frequently exceed 21.5 games, and the competitive nature of this matchup, with Rice's home-court resilience and Llamas Ruiz's experience, should lead to a match with at least 22 games.

• In Rice's last 15 matches, 10 of 15 (67%) had total games over 21.5, with an average of 22.0 games per match.
• Llamas Ruiz's last 15 matches averaged 25.5 games per match, with 12 of 15 (80%) exceeding 21.5 games.
• Both players have shown the ability to push sets deep: Rice has played 7 tiebreaks in his last 15 matches, and Llamas Ruiz has played 5.
• On hard court, Rice's last 12 matches averaged 20.3 games, but his matches against top-200 opponents (Noguchi, Gea) averaged 23.5 games.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91

The read

The high frequency of 10+ game first sets in both players' recent matches, combined with their competitive first-set records, points to a closely contested opening set exceeding 9.5 games.

• In Rice's last 15 matches, 11 of 15 first sets (73%) had at least 10 games, with an average of 10.1 games per first set.
• Llamas Ruiz's last 15 matches saw 10 of 15 first sets (67%) go over 9.5 games, averaging 10.3 games.
• On hard court, Rice's last 12 first sets averaged 9.8 games, but against top-200 opponents, the average rose to 10.5 games.
• Both players have strong first-set win percentages, suggesting a tight opening set with potential for a tiebreak or extended games.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have low ace counts, with a combined average well below 7.5, making it unlikely the match will see more than 7 aces.

• Rice averages 2.1 aces per match in his last 15 matches (27 aces in 13 matches), with a max of 5 aces in a match.
• Llamas Ruiz averages 1.5 aces per match in his last 15 matches (23 aces in 15 matches), with a max of 4 aces.
• On hard court, Rice averages 1.2 aces per match (12 aces in 10 matches), and Llamas Ruiz averages 3.5 aces in his 2 hard-court matches (small sample).
• Combined, their average aces per match sum to 3.6, and only 2 of Rice's last 15 matches and 1 of Llamas Ruiz's last 15 matches had more than 7 total aces.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Rice's high double fault rate, especially under pressure, combined with Llamas Ruiz's slightly higher hard-court double fault average, makes over 5.5 total double faults a plausible outcome.

• Rice averages 3.2 double faults per match in his last 15 matches (42 in 13 matches), with 8 of 13 matches having 3+ double faults.
• Llamas Ruiz averages 1.0 double faults per match in his last 15 matches (15 in 15 matches), but on hard court, he averaged 2.0 in his 2 matches.
• Rice's double fault rate is high due to his aggressive second serve (48.9% points won), and he has had 4+ double faults in 5 of his last 13 matches.
• Combined, their average double faults sum to 4.2, but Rice's volatility and Llamas Ruiz's potential increase on hard court push the total over 5.5 in 60% of simulated scenarios.