Antofagasta - ChileFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Thiago Seyboth Wild #202Brazil2Matias Soto #2620

Sets 6-3 · 6-4Tue 6 Oct 2026, 13:18 Predictions gradedFirst RoundClay

Predictions7–278%

Edges4–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageThiago Seyboth Wild · 60 places

Thiago Seyboth Wild

Brazil

Brazilian right-hander who reached a career-high No. 58 in May 2024. Official ITF data lists clay and hard courts as his preferred surfaces.

Current ranking: #202
Peak ranking: #58 · 2024
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: Clay, Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Matias Soto

Soto reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 240 on 21 April 2025. Official ITF results list a 24-12 clay record in 2026 as of 20 July, supporting clay as his established playing surface.

Current ranking: #262
Peak ranking: #240 · 2025
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 170 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 4 Oct 2026, 17:11 · Europe/Bucharest

First-round clay match in Antofagasta: Thiago Seyboth Wild, ranked 136 and 11-1 on clay in 12 matches since late July, meets Matias Soto, ranked 248 and 7-8 across 15 clay matches.

Seyboth Wild is the likely winner, most probably in straight sets. Four Thiago prices are worth the quote: 1.55 for a 2-0 win, 1.25 to take the first set, 1.29 the second set and 1.18 to win the match. Soto's 4.25, 3.5 and 3.3 do not.

Context

Seyboth Wild arrives on a 12-match clay sample from late July to mid-September 2026, and its set totals exclude one retired match.
Twelve matches is a small sample and the aggregate leaves out one retirement, so the record should not be pushed further than it goes. Even so, ten straight-set wins in that stretch means he has been closing clay matches without long three-set battles, which is why he starts as the clear favourite here. Soto's clay record over a comparable window is 7-8, so the contrast is genuine but built on a short run of results.
- Thiago Seyboth Wild went 11-1 across 12 completed clay matches from 2026-07-24 to 2026-09-13.
- Ten of those 11 wins were 2-0, one was 2-1 and the single loss was 0-2.
- The set-level aggregate excludes one retired match, so the 11-1 covers non-retired matches only.
Soto's clay sample runs from 10 July to 29 September 2026 and contains no retirements.
Soto lost seven of those 15 matches without taking a set, which is the pattern behind a straight-sets win for his opponent being the most likely outcome rather than a three-set grind. He has also won five matches 2-0 himself, so his results spread in both directions rather than trending one way. Fifteen matches is a modest base, so the splits of 4-5 games in the first set and 4.5-5.1 in the second are indicators rather than settled rates.
- Matias Soto went 7-8 across 15 clay matches from 2026-07-10 to 2026-09-29.
- Seven of his eight defeats were 0-2, with one 1-2 loss; his wins were five 2-0 and two 2-1.
- No matches in that sample were retirements.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.18
The read
Thiago's ranking and clay form are clearly stronger, so he is the likely winner.
- Thiago Seyboth Wild is ranked 136, Matias Soto 248.
- Thiago is 11-1 in his last 12 clay matches, with 10 of those wins in straight sets.
- Soto is 7-8 on clay in his last 15 and has lost three of his last four.
- No head-to-head matches are supplied.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonThiago Seyboth WildEstimated chance86%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent clay matches often finish under 20.5 games.
- Thiago's five recent 2-0 wins averaged 19.4 total games.
- Soto's three recent straight-set losses totaled 17 or 18 games.
- Thiago's clay matches average 19.9 total games.
- Soto's clay matches average 20.3 total games.
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 20.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
First-set averages are near the line, and several recent first sets went over 9.5 games.
- Thiago's first sets average 9.4 total games on clay.
- Soto's first sets average 9.3 total games on clay.
- Thiago's recent first-set scores include several 10- and 12-game sets.
- Soto has a 7-6 first set in his recent sample.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Many second sets in this sample finish with nine or fewer total games.
- Thiago's second sets average 9.8 total games on clay.
- Soto's second sets average 9.7 total games on clay.
- Soto's recent second-set totals were all under 9.5.
- Thiago has several 6-3 and 6-2 second sets.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets4 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Thiago's straight-set wins and Soto's frequent straight-set losses point to a two-set match.
- Thiago has won 10 of 12 clay matches 2-0.
- Soto has lost 7 of 15 clay matches 0-2.
- Thiago's clay matches average 2.08 sets.
- Soto's clay matches average 2.20 sets.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance87%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Thiago has dominated first sets on clay and should start as favorite.
- Thiago is 11-1 in first sets on clay.
- Thiago averages 6.0 first-set games won to 3.4 lost.
- Soto is 7-8 in first sets on clay.
- Thiago is ranked 136, Soto 248.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonThiago Seyboth WildEstimated chance84%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.29
The read
Thiago's second-set record on clay is strong, making him the likely set-two winner.
- Thiago is 10-2 in second sets on clay.
- Thiago averages 5.7 second-set games won to 4.2 lost.
- Soto is 6-9 in second sets on clay.
- Thiago is ranked 136, Soto 248.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonThiago Seyboth WildEstimated chance80%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Thiago's dominant clay form and straight-set wins make 2-0 the most likely scoreline.
- Thiago has ten 2-0 wins in 12 clay matches.
- Thiago is 11-1 on clay in the sample.
- Soto has lost 7 of 15 clay matches 0-2.
- Thiago is ranked 136, Soto 248.
BetBugs · Set BettingwonThiago Seyboth Wild 2-0Estimated chance78%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most of their clay matches did not feature a tiebreak.
- Thiago has 10 of 12 clay matches without a tiebreak.
- Soto has 12 of 15 clay matches without a tiebreak.
- Thiago's set1 has no tiebreaks in 12 clay matches.
- Soto's set1 has one tiebreak in 15 clay matches.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance78%

Prediction history

Thiago Seyboth Wild: 12/15 recent winner projections matched

12 of 15 comparable winner projections favouring Thiago Seyboth Wild matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Thiago Seyboth Wild15 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

29 Jul·Liberec - Czech Republic

#508Jan Kumstat2-0#206Thiago Seyboth Wild

BetBugsThiago Seyboth Wild to win·72%

Missed

29 Jul 2026

Liberec - Czech Republic

#508Jan Kumstat2-0#206Thiago Seyboth Wild

Thiago Seyboth Wild to win

72%probability

Jan Kumstat won

Missed

28 Jul·Liberec - Czech Republic

#404Andrej Martin0-2#206Thiago Seyboth Wild

BetBugsThiago Seyboth Wild to win·72%

Matched

28 Jul 2026

Liberec - Czech Republic

#404Andrej Martin0-2#206Thiago Seyboth Wild

Thiago Seyboth Wild to win

72%probability

Thiago Seyboth Wild won

Matched

26 Jul·Zug - Switzerland

#297Marc Andrea Huesler0-2#276Thiago Seyboth Wild

BetBugsThiago Seyboth Wild to win·62%

Matched

26 Jul 2026

Zug - Switzerland

#297Marc Andrea Huesler0-2#276Thiago Seyboth Wild

Thiago Seyboth Wild to win

62%probability

Thiago Seyboth Wild won

Matched

25 Jul·Zug - Switzerland

#276Thiago Seyboth Wild2-0#556Dylan Dietrich

BetBugsThiago Seyboth Wild to win·62%

Matched

25 Jul 2026

Zug - Switzerland

#276Thiago Seyboth Wild2-0#556Dylan Dietrich

Thiago Seyboth Wild to win

62%probability

Thiago Seyboth Wild won

Matched

24 Jul·Zug - Switzerland

#294Philip Henning0-2#276Thiago Seyboth Wild

BetBugsThiago Seyboth Wild to win·62%

Matched

24 Jul 2026

Zug - Switzerland

#294Philip Henning0-2#276Thiago Seyboth Wild

Thiago Seyboth Wild to win

62%probability

Thiago Seyboth Wild won

Matched

Thiago Seyboth Wild

12W 3L

6-4 6-2#130Pedro Martinez Portero

7-5 4-6 6-2#171Matej Dodig

6-1 7-6(6)#193Juan Pablo Varillas

7-5 6-3#388Massimo Giunta

6-3 6-4#521Gianmarco Ferrari

4-6 7-6(4) 4-3 ret.#193Juan Pablo Varillas

6-4 6-3#349Norbert Gombos

6-3 6-4#254Martin Krumich

6-4 6-4#167Mackenzie Mcdonald

6-2 6-1#227Raul Brancaccio

6-4 6-2#187Jan Kumstat

6-1 6-4#380Andrej Martin

6-4 6-3#271Marc-Andrea Huesler

6-4 6-3#363Dylan Dietrich

6-1 7-6(1)#266Philip Henning

Matias Soto

7W 8L

6-3 6-3#200Lautaro Midon

6-2 6-3#73Martin Landaluce

6-3 1-6 6-2#179Vitaliy Sachko

6-4 3-6 6-0#235Marvin Moeller

7-6(5) 6-2#310Sandro Kopp

6-3 6-2#263Kilian Feldbausch

6-3 7-6(6)#235Marvin Moeller

6-3 6-4#449Oleksii Krutykh

6-3 6-3#535Rudolf Molleker

6-3 6-0#463Felipe Meligeni Alves

6-3 6-4#873Rafael Tosetto

6-1 6-4—Gabriel Tumasonis

6-1 7-5#116Nicolas Mejia

7-5 7-5#885Lorenzo Claverie

6-4 6-7(5) 6-1#768Lucas Andrade Da Silva

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

TWThiago Seyboth WildWild

Last 15

8–0

9 core stats · 1 even

Matias SotoSotoMS

Thiago Seyboth Wild carries the stronger recent form — Matias Soto's route runs through break pts converted.

Serve · 5–0

1st Serve In15/15 · 14/1562.3%+6.6pp55.7%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/1578.4%+8.6pp69.8%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/1557.8%+5.7pp52.1%

Aces / Match15/15 · 14/157.3+3.43.9

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/151.71.2 fewer2.9

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/1540.3%+2.3pp38.0%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/1535.7%—36.4%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/1569.8%+11.5pp58.3%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/1554.8%+4.9pp49.9%

Serve · 5–0

62.3%1st Serve In15/15 · 14/15+6.6pp55.7%

78.4%1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+8.6pp69.8%

57.8%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+5.7pp52.1%

7.3Aces / Match15/15 · 14/15+3.43.9

1.7Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/151.2 fewer2.9

Return · 1–0

40.3%Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+2.3pp38.0%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

35.7%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/15—36.4%

69.8%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/15+11.5pp58.3%

Points · 1–0

54.8%Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+4.9pp49.9%

Thiago Seyboth Wild

Matias Soto

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Thiago Seyboth Wild

Thiago Seyboth Wild

Thiago Seyboth Wild

Thiago Seyboth Wild 2-0

Result1 of 1 landed

Games1 of 3 landed

Sets4 of 4 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Thiago Seyboth Wild

Matias Soto

Stat Battle