Mattia Bellucci #80Italy22 – 1Elias Ymer #212Sweden1

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Bellucci is the higher-ranked player, in clearly better recent form, and has beaten Ymer on this surface before.

• Bellucci is 8-6 on hard in his last 14 completed matches and has won five of his last six.
• Ymer is 4-8 on hard in 12 completed matches and has lost four of his last six.
• Bellucci won their most recent meeting 7-5 7-5 on hard (Cary, August 2024); head-to-head is 1-1.
• Bellucci's hard-court set record is 20-14; Ymer's is well behind at 4 wins from 12 matches.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Ymer only needs to stay within seven games, which covers almost every realistic outcome in this match.

• Bellucci's average hard-court game margin is roughly plus 2 per match (172 games won, 145 lost in 14 matches).
• Bellucci's recent scorelines include a one-game loss and sets decided at 6-4 and 6-3.
• Ymer has won at least one set in three of his last six completed matches.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Most plausible scorelines leave Bellucci short of a six-game margin, so Ymer's start looks well protected.

• Bellucci's average hard-court game margin is roughly plus 2 per match over 14 matches.
• Bellucci's loss in his most recent match came by a single game (15-14).
• Ymer has taken a set in two of his last six completed matches, limiting blowout scores.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Bellucci often wins by fewer than five games, so Ymer covering a four-and-a-half-game start is the more likely side.

• Bellucci's average hard-court game margin is about plus 2 across his last 14 completed matches (172-145).
• Bellucci's most recent match finished 15-14 in games, a margin of one.
• Ymer's game-level data is unavailable, so his margin behaviour is unknown.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both players' hard-court matches regularly run past 21 games, and a three-set possibility adds to the total.

• Bellucci's hard-court matches averaged 22.8 total games; Ymer's averaged 23.4.
• Both players' set1 and set2 average totals sit at or above 9.6 games.
• Bellucci's 12 hard-court matches produced four tiebreaks; Ymer's produced six.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both players' second sets average more than nine and a half games, with Ymer's clearly above it.

• Bellucci's second sets averaged 9.75 total games; Ymer's averaged 10.67.
• Three of Ymer's 12 hard-court second sets went to a tiebreak.
• Ymer's second sets are the closest part of his matches, averaging 5.0 games against 5.67.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

First-set totals for both players sit right around the line, with Ymer's slightly above it.

• Bellucci's first sets on hard averaged 9.6 total games; Ymer's averaged 10.1.
• Only one of Bellucci's 12 hard-court first sets reached a tiebreak.
• Ymer's first sets averaged 10.1 games with two tiebreaks in 12.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Ymer's second-set record is his weakest, and Bellucci has generally held the upper hand in that part of matches.

• Bellucci has won 7 of 12 second sets on hard.
• Ymer has lost 8 of 12 second sets on hard, more than he has lost first sets.
• Bellucci's second sets averaged 9.75 games, showing they stay competitive.