ChinaJingshan - ChinaFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Yanki Erel #305Türkiye0Mattia Bellucci #80Italy2

Sets 4-6 · 4-6Sat 3 Oct 2026, 05:46 Predictions gradedSemi-FinalHard

Predictions9–0100%

Edges0–40%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMattia Bellucci · 225 places

Yanki Erel

Türkiye

Erel, 25, is the left-hander in this matchup. ITF lists hard as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #305
Peak ranking: #280
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Left handed
Height: 178 cm

Mattia Bellucci

Italy

Italian left-hander whose ATP career-high ranking is No. 63, achieved in July 2025. Official player profiles list hard as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #80
Peak ranking: #63 · 2025
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Left handed
Height: 175 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 2 Oct 2026, 22:29 · Europe/Bucharest

Bellucci is the higher-ranked player and has not dropped a set at Jingshan, but Erel beat the top seed and a No. 150 to reach this semifinal, so the gap is narrower than the rankings suggest.

Bellucci is still the likelier winner; the worthwhile prices are all on Erel. Erel to win the match at 3.5, the first set at 3.0, the second set at 3.2 and 2-0 at 6.5 all offer something, while Bellucci's short odds do not.

Context

Erel arrived at Jingshan at No. 331 and has now won three matches in China without dropping a set, the straight-sets quarterfinal against a top-150 seed being the strongest of them. That run is what puts him one match from a first final at this level and sets up the Bellucci semifinal. The limit on the story is the level of opposition already cleared: Bellucci sits at No. 91, roughly 240 places above Erel, so this route explains how Erel got here rather than how he reads against the field left in the draw.
- Erel beat Federico Cina 7-5, 7-6(3) in the Jingshan quarterfinal .
- Cina was the eighth seed and ranked No. 150.
- The semifinal opponent is Mattia Bellucci.
ConfirmedSources checked 2 Oct 2026, 22:27 · Europe/BucharestHaberlerwww.haberler.com · 2 Oct 2026
Bellucci has not played since 1 October, while Erel completed a two-set quarterfinal, so the two arrive at the semifinal with different match loads in a week where both had been playing on consecutive days. That difference is the clearest preparation factor in the fixture. What it does not show is how Bellucci's game is holding up, because he has not faced a seeded opponent this week and his last completed match against a higher-ranked player ended in a straight-sets loss to Kamil Majchrzak on 24 September.
- The quarterfinal against Bernard Tomic was recorded as a walkover and Bellucci advanced to the semifinal without playing.
- Bellucci's previous completed match was a 7-5, 6-2 win over Adam Walton on 1 October.
ConfirmedSources checked 2 Oct 2026, 22:27 · Europe/Bucharest
Zheng was the top seed and the strongest opponent Erel has beaten this week, so the 6-1, 7-6(5) score is the reference point for how Erel handles a top-100 player. It matters directly because Bellucci is ranked in the same region, making this the closest available gauge of whether Erel's level carries up a tier. One match is a thin basis, and Zheng's own opening round went to a first-set tie-break against a far lower-ranked opponent, so this is best read as a single strong day rather than a settled pattern.
- Zheng was the tournament's top seed and world No. 92.
- Erel won 6-1, 7-6(5) .
- It is Erel's only win over a top-100 opponent in the event.
ConfirmedSources checked 2 Oct 2026, 22:27 · Europe/BucharestHaberlerwww.haberler.com · 2 Oct 2026
Erel, ranked No. 331, has started matches quickly enough on hard that the opening set is often where his afternoons are settled.
That meets a direct counterpoint in this semifinal, because Bellucci has won the first set in all four of his completed Jingshan matches. The 14-match sample is small and excludes one retired match, so it reads as a pointer to how Erel tends to begin rather than a settled rate.
- Erel: 11 first-set wins and 3 losses across 14 hard-court best-of-3 matches tracked from 26 August to 2 October.
- Set 1 games: 5.5 won and 3.9 lost per match, with two tiebreaks in the sample.
- One retired match was excluded from the 14-match sample.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Bellucci is higher ranked and has served strongly on hard, backing up a straight-set run at this event.
- ATP ranking: Bellucci 91, Erel 331.
- SetEvidence hard best-of-3: Bellucci 6-4, with five of six wins 2-0.
- Current-surface serve: 74.7% first-serve points won, 67.6% break points saved.
- Bellucci has won all four completed Jingshan matches in straight sets.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMattia BellucciEstimated chance62%

Games3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Straight-set wins have kept both players' recent matches short, making an under-21.5 game match plausible.
- Erel setEvidence: 9 of 14 matches were 2-0 wins.
- Bellucci setEvidence: five of six wins were 2-0.
- Bellucci's last four completed Jingshan matches stayed at or under 20 games.
- Erel's average total games is 20.0.
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets have averaged close to ten games, so over 9.5 is narrowly favored.
- Erel set2 total games average 9.36.
- Bellucci set2 total games average 9.8.
- Erel has two set2 tiebreaks in 14 matches.
- Bellucci has two set2 tiebreaks in 10 matches.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Set1 games are close to the 9.5 line, and both players can push sets past nine games.
- Erel set1 total games average 9.43.
- Bellucci set1 total games average 9.8.
- Erel has two set1 tiebreaks in 14 matches.
- Bellucci has one set1 tiebreak in 10 matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have won or lost mostly in straight sets, making a two-set match the stronger possibility.
- Erel setEvidence: 13 of 14 matches ended in straight sets.
- Bellucci setEvidence: 9 of 10 matches ended in straight sets.
- Bellucci has not dropped a set in four Jingshan matches.
- Erel has won five of six recent completed matches in straight sets.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bellucci has been solid in second sets on this surface and has not dropped a set this week.
- Bellucci set2 record: 6 wins, 4 losses in 10 hard best-of-3 matches.
- Bellucci set2 games won average 5.4, lost 4.4.
- Bellucci has not lost a set at Jingshan.
- Erel set2 record: 9 wins, 5 losses in 14 matches.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonMattia BellucciEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bellucci has started sets strongly and has not dropped a first set at Jingshan.
- Bellucci set1 record: 7 wins, 3 losses in 10 hard best-of-3 matches.
- Bellucci set1 games won average 5.7, lost 4.1.
- Bellucci has won the first set in all four Jingshan matches.
- Erel set1 record: 11 wins, 3 losses in 14 matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonMattia BellucciEstimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tiebreaks have been uncommon in both players' completed hard-court matches, so no tiebreak is more likely.
- Erel setEvidence: 10 of 14 matches had no tiebreak.
- Bellucci setEvidence: seven of 10 matches had no tiebreak.
- Bellucci's four Jingshan wins had no tiebreak.
- Erel's last two wins had one tiebreak total.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance70%

Prediction history

Mattia Bellucci: 2/5 recent winner projections matched

2 of 5 comparable winner projections favouring Mattia Bellucci matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Mattia Bellucci5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

14 Jun·ATP Halle

#78Mattia Bellucci2-1#157Alex Bolt

BetBugsMattia Bellucci to win·58%

Matched

14 Jun 2026

ATP Halle

#78Mattia Bellucci2-1#157Alex Bolt

Mattia Bellucci to win

58%probability

Mattia Bellucci won

Matched

13 Jun·ATP Halle

#78Mattia Bellucci2-0#303Mikhail Kukushkin

BetBugsMattia Bellucci to win·72%

Matched

13 Jun 2026

ATP Halle

#78Mattia Bellucci2-0#303Mikhail Kukushkin

Mattia Bellucci to win

72%probability

Mattia Bellucci won

Matched

2 Jun·Birmingham - Great Britain

#73Mattia Bellucci0-2#152Alex Bolt

BetBugsMattia Bellucci to win·62%

Missed

2 Jun 2026

Birmingham - Great Britain

#73Mattia Bellucci0-2#152Alex Bolt

Mattia Bellucci to win

62%probability

Alex Bolt won

Missed

24 May·ATP Roland Garros

#88Quentin Halys3-0#72Mattia Bellucci

BetBugsMattia Bellucci to win·55%

Missed

24 May 2026

ATP Roland Garros

#88Quentin Halys3-0#72Mattia Bellucci

Mattia Bellucci to win

55%probability

Quentin Halys won

Missed

11 May·ATP Rome

#80Mattia Bellucci0-2#94Martin Landaluce

BetBugsMattia Bellucci to win·55%

Missed

11 May 2026

ATP Rome

#80Mattia Bellucci0-2#94Martin Landaluce

Mattia Bellucci to win

55%probability

Martin Landaluce won

Missed

Yanki Erel

10W 5L

7-5 7-6(3)#150Federico Cina

6-1 7-6(5)#92Michael Zheng

6-4 6-2#405Arthur Weber

6-0 6-4#22Francisco Cerundolo

3-6 6-4 6-3#255Jay Dylan Hara Friend

6-4 6-2#464Radu Albot

7-6(2) 6-4#204Timofey Skatov

6-4 6-4#686Ryuki Matsuda

6-0 6-0#550Keisuke Saitoh

6-3 6-1—Yuto Oki

6-1 2-6 6-2#817Kousuke Ogura

6-4 6-4#447Luca Castelnuovo

7-6(1) 7-5#595Hikaru Shiraishi

6-4 6-0#649Kokoro Isomura

4-1 ret.#837Gijs Brouwer

Mattia Bellucci

8W 7L

7-5 6-2#97Adam Walton

6-0 6-3#132Alexandre Muller

6-2 6-2#550Keisuke Saitoh

6-2 6-4#674Filip Peliwo

6-3 6-4#71Kamil Majchrzak

6-0 6-1 6-1#12Taylor Fritz

6-4 6-2 6-0#113Zsombor Piros

2-6 6-4 6-2#19Luciano Darderi

6-4 6-7(3) 6-1#73Martin Landaluce

7-5 2-6 7-6(5)#14Jakub Mensik

7-6(0) 7-6(4)#80Zachary Svajda

7-5 6-3#51Sebastian Baez

7-6(5) 6-7(1) 6-4#32Ugo Humbert

4-6 6-4 6-3#48Raphael Collignon

7-6(6) 6-1#20Alexander Bublik

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

YEYanki ErelErel

Last 15

6–1

9 core stats · 2 even

Mattia BellucciBellucciMB

Yanki Erel carries the stronger recent form — Mattia Bellucci's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

1st Serve In14/15 · 15/1562.7%+1.5pp61.2%

1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/1574.8%—74.2%

2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/1555.6%+2.5pp53.1%

Aces / Match14/15 · 15/155.1+2.87.9

Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/152.60.3 fewer2.9

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/1541.7%+3.6pp38.1%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/1544.9%+6.8pp38.1%

Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/1565.6%—66.3%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/1554.2%+2.5pp51.7%

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

62.7%1st Serve In14/15 · 15/15+1.5pp61.2%

74.8%1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/15—74.2%

55.6%2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+2.5pp53.1%

5.1Aces / Match14/15 · 15/15+2.87.9

2.6Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/150.3 fewer2.9

Return · 1–0

41.7%Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+3.6pp38.1%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

44.9%Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/15+6.8pp38.1%

65.6%Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/15—66.3%

Points · 1–0

54.2%Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+2.5pp51.7%

Yanki Erel

Mattia Bellucci

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Yanki Erel

Yanki Erel

Yanki Erel

Yanki Erel 2-0

Result1 of 1 landed

Games3 of 3 landed

Sets3 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Yanki Erel

Mattia Bellucci

Stat Battle