Belinda Bencic #14Switzerland00 – 2Ann Li #31United States2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Bencic is the higher-ranked player, has won four of five hard-court matches in this window and has taken a clearly larger share of games than Li.

• Bencic is 4-1 on hard in this window, winning 70 of 119 games (58.8%)
• Li is 8-6 on hard, winning 51.1% of points and 52.2% of games (151-138)
• Bencic is ranked 12th, Li 30th
• Li won their only meeting 6-3 6-3 at the 2025 US Open

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Li has generally kept match margins small, so a five-game cushion covers a wide range of plausible results.

• Li has won 151 of 289 hard-court games (52.2%) across 14 matches
• Only two of her 14 hard matches went to three sets
• Her recent hard matches totalled 18, 29, 35, 19, 23 and 17 games

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.60

The read

Straight-set finishes have been the norm for both players, and Li's matches in particular have usually stayed below this total.

• Li's 14 hard matches average 20.6 total games, Bencic's five average 23.8
• Four of Li's last six hard matches finished under this line (18, 19, 23 and 17 games)
• Only two of Li's 14 hard matches went to three sets

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Second sets on hard have been the slightly longer sets for both players, with Bencic's averaging above this line.

• Bencic's second sets average 10.2 games over five hard matches
• Li's second sets average 9.6 games over 14
• Tiebreaks in second sets: Bencic two in five, Li three in 14

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both players' first sets sit just above this line on average, so a set reaching 6-4 or longer is slightly more likely than a short one.

• Bencic's first sets this window average 9.8 games
• Li's first sets average 9.7 games across 14 hard-court matches
• Li's recent first sets: 6-4, 2-6, 5-7, 7-5, 6-7 and 6-2

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

A three-game margin sits within Bencic's usual range, since she has won by six or more games in three of her five hard-court matches in this window.

• Bencic's five hard-court matches this window: +6, -3, +8, +2 and +8 games
• Her average margin is +4.2 games per match (70 won, 49 lost)
• Three of those five matches were won 2-0

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.40

The read

Both players have mostly finished their hard-court matches in two sets, and Li in particular rarely goes to a decider.

• Li's hard-court scorelines: seven 2-0 wins, five 0-2 defeats, one 2-1 win, one 1-2 defeat
• Bencic's hard-court scorelines: three 2-0, one 2-1, one 1-2
• Only four three-set matches between them in 19 completed hard-court matches

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Bencic has started well on hard while Li has split first sets evenly, and Bencic's overall share of games is larger.

• Bencic has won the first set in four of five hard-court matches
• Li is 7-7 in first sets across 14 hard-court matches
• Bencic averages 6.0 first-set games to 3.8 in this window

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Bencic still holds the larger share of games, though Li's second-set record is better than her first-set record, which narrows the gap.

• Bencic is 4-1 in second sets on hard, averaging 6.2 games to 4.0
• Li is 9-5 in second sets on hard, averaging 5.4 games to 4.2
• Li's second set is her stronger set in this window

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Most of both players' hard-court sets have been settled with a break of serve rather than a tiebreak.

• Bencic has had a tiebreak in two of five hard-court matches, Li in five of 14
• Li's hard-court scorelines include twelve straight-set matches in 14
• Bencic won two straight-set matches 6-3 6-1 and 6-4 6-0 in this window