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Predictions graded

Ashlyn Krueger #58United States0Ann Li #31United States2

Sets 4-6 · 2-6Sat 3 Oct 2026, 03:10 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions7–558%

Edges6–186%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAnn Li · 27 places

Ashlyn Krueger

United States

American right-hander born in May 2004. No verified current injury, withdrawal, or Cincinnati workload signal was established from the requested searches.

Current ranking: #58
Peak ranking: —
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Ann Li

United States

Reached a career-high ranking of No. 29 in May 2026. The WTA lists grass as her favourite surface; she plays right-handed and stands 170 cm.

Current ranking: #31
Peak ranking: #29 · 2026
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: Grass
Hand: Right handed
Height: 170 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 2 Oct 2026, 03:47 · Europe/Bucharest

Ann Li is the higher-ranked player and the stronger hard-court performer, but she comes into this Beijing second round without a singles match since 4 September and faces a Krueger who has already won a round here.

Li still looks the likelier winner, though the 1.73 on her to win the match asks more than her case justifies. The prices worth taking are Under 19.5 games at 2.6 and Krueger +2.5 games at 1.73.

Context

Krueger's 6-3 6-3 win over former Australian Open champion Sofia Kenin was her first completed singles match since a US Open first-round exit on 31 August, and it came on the same outdoor hard courts used for this round. It gives her match sharpness on site that a first-round bye cannot replicate. The counterweight is her hard-court singles record, which stands at 3-4 across the tracked sample and is clearly weaker than her grass results this season.
- Krueger beat Sofia Kenin 6-3 6-3 in the Beijing first round .
- Krueger had not completed a singles match since a 6-1 6-3 US Open first-round loss to Amanda Anisimova on 31 August.
- Sofia Kenin won the 2020 Australian Open.
ConfirmedSources checked 2 Oct 2026, 03:45 · Europe/Bucharest
Krueger and Robin Montgomery entered the US Open as unseeded wildcards and beat second seeds Gabriela Dabrowski and Luisa Stefani 4-6 6-4 7-6(8) to reach the final, where top seeds Katerina Siniakova and Taylor Townsend beat them. It is the deepest Grand Slam run of her career and kept her playing doubles in New York until mid-September, almost two weeks after her singles exit. Because it is a doubles result it does not carry over to her singles level here, so it stands as a season milestone rather than a form pointer.
- Krueger and Robin Montgomery beat second seeds Gabriela Dabrowski and Luisa Stefani 4-6 6-4 7-6(8) to reach the 2026 US Open women's doubles final.
- Top seeds Katerina Siniakova and Taylor Townsend won the final.
ConfirmedSources checked 2 Oct 2026, 03:45 · Europe/Bucharest
Li's last completed singles match was a 6-2 6-7(6) 6-2 loss to Wimbledon champion Linda Noskova in the US Open third round, having won the second-set tiebreak to force a decider. She had reached that round with a 5-7 7-6(4) 6-4 comeback over Donna Vekic, so her most recent evidence is of matches that ran long and close. It also leaves her without competitive singles for roughly four weeks before Beijing, while Krueger has already banked a round on these courts.
- Li lost 6-2 6-7(6) 6-2 to Linda Noskova in the US Open third round .
- Li had beaten Donna Vekic 5-7 7-6(4) 6-4 in the previous round.
- Linda Noskova won the 2026 Wimbledon title.
ConfirmedSources checked 2 Oct 2026, 03:45 · Europe/Bucharest
Krueger has been starting slowly on hard courts, losing four of six opening sets, yet none of those six matches reached a tiebreak and the average match has run 18.8 games. Her results in the sample are two 2-0 wins, three 0-2 defeats and one 2-1 win, so these sets tend to be settled by a break rather than stretched to the end.
- Krueger's hard-court set data covers six matches from 27 July to 1 October 2026, with no tiebreaks recorded in either set.
- She has won two of six opening sets and three of six second sets in that sample.
- Her hard-court matches average 18.8 total games, with scorelines of two 2-0 wins, three 0-2 defeats and one 2-1 win.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Li holds the higher ranking, the better hard-court win rate and the stronger serve numbers, which gives her the clearer route to points.
- Li is ranked 30 to Krueger's 73 and is 7-6 on hard in 13 tracked matches
- Li has won 50.9% of hard-court points and 68.9% of first-serve points won
- Krueger is 3-3 on hard across six matches in this window
- Li's most recent match was a three-set loss to Wimbledon champion Linda Noskova in which she took the second set on a tiebreak
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAnn LiEstimated chance57%

Games1 of 6 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Given that most of these matches are close on games, a 3.5-game cushion is a solid position.
- Krueger's six hard matches produced a 56-57 game split
- Li's average hard-court match is decided by well under four games
- Krueger's heaviest hard loss in the sample was 4-6 1-6 in games
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostAshlyn Krueger +3.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Krueger has kept her hard-court games level, so a 2.5-game cushion holds in most of her plausible results.
- Krueger's hard-court games are 56-57 over six matches
- Li's hard-court game differential is +7 across 13 matches
- Krueger won 12-6 in games against Sofia Kenin in the first round
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostAshlyn Krueger +2.5Estimated chance61%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
First sets in this sample usually finish inside nine games, and tiebreaks in the opener are rare.
- Li's first sets average 9.7 games on hard; Krueger's average 8.5
- Their combined first-set average is about 9.1 games
- Krueger has no first-set tiebreaks in six hard matches; Li has two in 13
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Li's hard-court matches habitually push past this line, and tiebreaks in a third of them keep the total high.
- Li's 13 hard-court matches average 20.8 total games
- Krueger's six hard matches average 18.8 total games
- Li has had a tiebreak in five of her 13 hard matches
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 19.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Krueger's games are close to level, so a 1.5-game cushion covers even in a narrow loss.
- Krueger's six hard matches are 56 games won and 57 lost, essentially level
- Li's hard-court margin is +7 games over 13 matches
- Three of Krueger's six hard matches were 0-2 defeats where the game gap was wide
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostAshlyn Krueger +1.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined second-set average sits just under the line, so a standard 6-4 finish stays under.
- Li's second sets average 9.8 games on hard; Krueger's average 9.0
- Their combined second-set average is about 9.4 games
- Three of Li's 13 hard matches had a second-set tiebreak
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance53%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Straight-set outcomes dominate both players' hard-court records and any two-set result fits this line.
- Li's scorelines on hard include six 2-0 wins and five 0-2 losses
- Krueger's scorelines on hard include two 2-0 wins, three 0-2 losses and one 2-1 win
- Combined average sets per match is about 2.16
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance67%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.70
The read
Li's second-set record is her strongest phase of the match in this window.
- Li has won eight of 13 second sets on hard
- Krueger has won three of six second sets on hard
- Li won the second set on a tiebreak in her most recent match against Noskova
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonAnn LiEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Li's first-set record and ranking give her a modest edge in the opening set.
- Li has won six of 13 first sets on hard
- Krueger has won two of six first sets on hard
- Li's first sets average 9.7 games; Krueger's 8.5
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonAnn LiEstimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most of these matches have been settled without a tiebreak, particularly in Krueger's sample.
- Krueger has played no tiebreak in six hard matches
- Only five of Li's 13 hard matches featured a tiebreak
- Eleven of Li's 13 hard matches and five of Krueger's six ended in straight sets
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance70%

Prediction history

Ann Li: 7/15 recent winner projections matched

7 of 15 comparable winner projections favouring Ann Li matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Ann Li15 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

28 Jul·WTA Washington

#43Magdalena Frech2-0#32Ann Li

BetBugsAnn Li to win·62%

Missed

28 Jul 2026

WTA Washington

#43Magdalena Frech2-0#32Ann Li

Ann Li to win

62%probability

Magdalena Frech won

Missed

16 Jul·WTA Athens

#90Alina Korneeva2-0#31Ann Li

BetBugsAnn Li to win·62%

Missed

16 Jul 2026

WTA Athens

#90Alina Korneeva2-0#31Ann Li

Ann Li to win

62%probability

Alina Korneeva won

Missed

14 Jul·WTA Athens

#79Maria Timofeeva0-2#31Ann Li

BetBugsAnn Li to win·62%

Matched

14 Jul 2026

WTA Athens

#79Maria Timofeeva0-2#31Ann Li

Ann Li to win

62%probability

Ann Li won

Matched

23 Jun·WTA Bad Homburg

#29Ann Li1-2#19Ekaterina Alexandrova

BetBugsAnn Li to win·55%

Missed

23 Jun 2026

WTA Bad Homburg

#29Ann Li1-2#19Ekaterina Alexandrova

Ann Li to win

55%probability

Ekaterina Alexandrova won

Missed

19 Jun·WTA Nottingham

#29Ann Li1-2#76Viktorija Golubic

BetBugsAnn Li to win·58%

Missed

19 Jun 2026

WTA Nottingham

#29Ann Li1-2#76Viktorija Golubic

Ann Li to win

58%probability

Viktorija Golubic won

Missed

Previous match context available

Ashlyn Krueger

10W 5L

6-3 6-3#107Sofia Kenin

6-1 6-3#11Amanda Anisimova

6-4 6-4#99Julia Grabher

6-1 6-4#859Anna Frey

6-3 6-2#274Lois Boisson

6-3 3-1 ret.#17Naomi Osaka

3-6 6-2 6-2#56Katie Boulter

6-4 6-4#10Marta Kostyuk

6-3 6-2#46Daria Snigur

6-1 6-0#370Mariam Bolkvadze

3-6 7-6(3) 6-4#40Donna Vekic

7-6(8) 6-1#160Polina Iatcenko

6-3 5-7 6-3#177Mai Hontama

7-5 7-5#164Gabriela Andrea Knutson

7-5 6-2#219Celine Naef

Ann Li

7W 8L

6-2 6-7(6) 6-2#6Linda Noskova

5-7 7-6(4) 6-4#40Donna Vekic

7-5 6-1#83Antonia Ruzic

7-6(7) 6-4#31Diane Parry

6-2 6-3#70Alycia Parks

6-1 6-2#66Maria Camila Osorio Serrano

6-1 7-6(3)#4Cori Gauff

7-5 6-3#57Shuai Zhang

6-2 7-5#1Elena Rybakina

7-6(2) 6-3#166Kayla Cross

6-4 6-3#48Magdalena Frech

6-2 6-2#69Alina Korneeva

6-2 6-1#68Maria Timofeeva

7-5 1-6 6-4#58Zeynep Sonmez

6-1 6-7(5) 6-1#28Ekaterina Alexandrova

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

AKAshlyn KruegerKrueger

Last 15

5–3

9 core stats · 1 even

Ann LiLiAL

Ashlyn Krueger carries the stronger recent form — Ann Li's route runs through serve.

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

1st Serve In62.8%+8.6pp54.2%

1st Serve Won67.1%+1.7pp68.8%

2nd Serve Won45.0%+1.8pp46.8%

Aces / Match5.0—4.9

Double Faults / Match4.91.0 fewer3.9

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won44.5%+2.9pp41.6%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted48.3%+6.1pp42.2%

Break Pts Saved62.9%+6.5pp56.4%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won51.9%+1.5pp50.4%

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

62.8%1st Serve In+8.6pp54.2%

67.1%1st Serve Won+1.7pp68.8%

45.0%2nd Serve Won+1.8pp46.8%

5.0Aces / Match—4.9

4.9Double Faults / Match1.0 fewer3.9

Return · 1–0

44.5%Return Pts Won+2.9pp41.6%

Pressure · 2–0

48.3%Break Pts Converted+6.1pp42.2%

62.9%Break Pts Saved+6.5pp56.4%

Points · 1–0

51.9%Total Pts Won+1.5pp50.4%

Ashlyn Krueger

Ann Li

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 2.5

Ashlyn Krueger +2.5

Under 19.5

Ann Li

Ann Li

Ann Li

Ann Li 2-0

Result1 of 1 landed

Games1 of 6 landed

Sets3 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Ashlyn Krueger

Ann Li

Stat Battle