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Predictions graded

August Holmgren #2260Henrique Rocha #125Portugal2

Sets 3-6 · 6-7Fri 2 Oct 2026, 12:10 Predictions gradedQuarter-FinalHard

Predictions6–367%

Edges1–233%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageHenrique Rocha · 101 places

August Holmgren

Reached a career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 141 on 22 June 2026. The ITF lists him as right-handed and identifies clay as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #226
Peak ranking: #141 · 2026
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Henrique Rocha

Portugal

Rocha reached a career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 118 on 20 April 2026. His 2026 ITF-recorded results are heavily concentrated on clay, where he held a 22-11 record through late July.

Current ranking: #125
Peak ranking: #118 · 2026
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 2 Oct 2026, 03:11 · Europe/Bucharest

Rocha, the world No. 127, is at home in Porto against No.

245 Holmgren, who has not dropped a set here and whose serve is the biggest shot on court. Rocha looks the likelier match winner, but 1.4 on him asks for more than the ranking gap and his nine-match hard-court sample justify. The two prices with an edge are Holmgren to win the first set and the second set, both at 2.5.

Context

Holmgren has conceded only eleven games across two straight-set wins in Porto, headlined by a first-round defeat of Benjamin Bonzi, then ranked No. 90. Coming from outside the top 200, that is the clearest recent evidence he is performing above his ranking this week. The counterpoint is the sample: the run sits directly after five consecutive defeats between late July and early September, so two matches may not indicate a lasting change in form.
- Holmgren def. Benjamin Bonzi 6-3, 6-4 in the Porto first round .
- Holmgren def. Andrea Guerrieri 7-5, 6-1 in the second round .
- Bonzi was ranked No. 90 and Guerrieri No. 164 when they played.
ConfirmedSources checked 2 Oct 2026, 03:10 · Europe/Bucharest
Holmgren's serve gives him a foothold in the opening set even though his first-set record is the weaker half of his hard-court form.
First sets have been the least controlled part of Holmgren's hard-court record: five wins and seven losses, an average of 11.17 games, and five tiebreaks in 12 matches. Rocha has played no first-set tiebreak in nine hard-court matches and has led 6-3 in first sets, so the opener can go either way despite the ranking gap.
- Holmgren's hard-court set-1 record is 5-7 across 12 matches tracked from 14 July to 1 October 2026.
- His first sets average 11.17 total games, with 5.58 won and 5.58 lost.
- Five of those 12 first sets went to a tiebreak, and six of the 12 hard-court matches featured at least one tiebreak.
Rocha's second sets, rather than his first sets, have been where he finishes matches off.
Rocha's hard-court second sets are the most one-sided part of his recent record: 5.67 games won to 3.89 lost, and seven wins in nine. He has also finished five of those nine matches in straight sets. The caveat is that the nine matches sit inside 7-8 across his last 15, so strength at set level has not produced a dominant overall match record.
- Rocha's hard-court set-2 record is 7-2 across nine matches tracked from 1 August to 1 October 2026.
- His second sets average 9.56 total games, with 5.67 won and 3.89 lost.
- His nine hard-court matches in that window break down as five 2-0 wins, three 1-2 defeats and one 0-2 defeat.
Holmgren's delivery is the shot that keeps a 245th-ranked player competitive against a higher-ranked opponent.
Holmgren's first serve has produced 75.5% of points won across 15 matches, with 123 aces at 8.2 per match, and it is the clearest reason this quarter-final is not a simple ranking mismatch. The cost is inconsistency: only 58.6% of first serves land in and he averages 6.2 double faults, while he wins just 49.6% of second-serve points, so Rocha's return has a way back into games.
- Holmgren's last 15 tracked matches show 75.5% of first-serve points won (569 of 754).
- He averages 8.2 aces per match (123 across 15 matches) and 6.2 double faults per match (93 across 15).
- He lands 58.6% of first serves (754 of 1286) and wins 49.6% of second-serve points (264 of 532).

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Henrique Rocha

1.40fair 1.59

BetBugs 63% · Market 71.4%

−8.4ppshort

Rocha is the higher-ranked player, returns better, holds a clear edge on second serve and has looked comfortable at his home event this week.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.40
The read
Rocha is the higher-ranked player, returns better, holds a clear edge on second serve and has looked comfortable at his home event this week.
- Rocha is ranked 127, Holmgren 245
- On hard courts Rocha wins 41.2% of return points and 56.1% of second-serve points, against Holmgren's 36.2% and 50.0%
- Rocha is 5-4 on hard in this window with 61.9% of sets won; Holmgren is 6-6 with 53.3%
- Rocha has won both Porto matches in straight sets, dropping 10 games in four sets
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonHenrique RochaEstimated chance63%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Holmgren's first sets regularly run past nine games, and his serve makes tight opening sets likely.
- Holmgren's hard-court first sets average 11.17 games
- Holmgren has had five first-set tiebreaks in 12 hard matches
- Rocha's hard-court first sets average 9.89 games
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The second sets have usually been settled without going deep into extra games.
- Rocha's hard-court second sets average 9.56 games with only two tiebreaks in nine
- Holmgren's hard-court second sets average 9.5 games
- Rocha has won 7 of 9 second sets on hard
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Rocha's recent hard-court matches have been short, and his return game can shorten sets against Holmgren's second serve.
- Rocha's hard-court matches average 23 total games; Holmgren's average 25.75
- Rocha has won 5 of 9 hard matches in straight sets, several by wide margins
- Rocha's Porto win over Poljicak was 6-2, 6-0
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 24.5Estimated chance52%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Rocha has been strong in second sets and is the more likely player to finish the match off.
- Rocha is 7-2 in second sets on hard
- Rocha wins 61.9% of his hard-court sets
- Rocha has won five of nine hard matches in straight sets
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonHenrique RochaEstimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Rocha has started matches better than Holmgren in this hard-court window and holds the overall edge.
- Rocha is 6-3 in first sets on hard, Holmgren 5-7
- Rocha's first-set game difference on hard is +0.78 per set
- Holmgren's first-set games won and lost average 5.58 each
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonHenrique RochaEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Rocha has been closing matches quickly and, with the ranking and return advantage, a two-set win is a realistic path.
- Rocha's hard-court scorelines include 2-0 in five of nine matches
- Rocha has won both Porto matches in straight sets
- Rocha's hard-court matches average 2.33 sets
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance51%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The two players' combined ace rate on this surface sits below the line.
- Holmgren averages 6.8 aces per hard-court match
- Rocha averages 5.0 aces per hard-court match
- Their combined hard-court average is about 11.8 aces per match
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 12.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Even with Holmgren's high double-fault rate, the combined total sits under the line.
- Holmgren averages 5.5 double faults per hard-court match
- Rocha averages 2.9 double faults per hard-court match
- Their combined hard-court average is about 8.4 per match
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 9.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Neither player's hard-court matches have gone to tiebreaks more often than not, and Rocha in particular avoids them.
- Rocha has had tiebreaks in only 3 of 9 hard-court matches
- Rocha has played no first-set tiebreak on hard
- Nine of 21 combined hard-court matches featured a tiebreak
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance53%

Previous match context available

August Holmgren

7W 8L

7-5 6-1#164Andrea Guerrieri 6-3 6-4#90Benjamin Bonzi

6-4 7-5#401Vadym Ursu

7-6(3) 7-5#198Felix Balshaw

6-3 6-7(4) 6-2#164Andrea Guerrieri

6-7(5) 6-3 6-3#207Braden Shick

7-5 1-6 6-4#215Liam Draxl

6-7(8) 6-2 7-6(4)#433Garrett Johns

6-4 3-6 6-3#112Aleksandar Vukic

6-1 6-3#411Justin Boulais

7-6(4) 6-2#356Aidan Mayo

6-7(6) 6-4 7-5#402Yosuke Watanuki

6-3 6-7(3) 6-3#153Tristan Schoolkate

6-4 6-3#286Jerome Kym

7-6(6) 4-6 7-5#208Liam Broady

Henrique Rocha

7W 8L

6-2 6-0#293Mili Poljicak 7-5 6-3#272Cezar Cretu

6-4 6-4#146Dusan Lajovic

6-4 6-1#454Santiago Rodriguez Taverna

6-3 7-6(11)#376Carlos Taberner

2-6 6-2 7-6(10)#125Lloyd Harris

7-5 6-4#149Michael Mmoh

6-2 4-6 6-4#41Hubert Hurkacz

6-4 6-1#675Seongchan Hong

7-5 4-6 6-3#116Nicolas Mejia

6-4 7-6(6)#85Marcos Giron

6-3 7-6(3)#103Martin Damm

7-5 7-5#130Pedro Martinez Portero

6-2 6-1#102Damir Dzumhur

6-4 6-7(6) 6-2#116Nicolas Mejia

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

AHAugust HolmgrenHolmgren

Last 15

4–4

9 core stats · 1 even

Henrique RochaRochaHR

Dead-even recent form — the edges are in serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In58.6%+3.9pp62.5%

1st Serve Won75.5%+8.3pp67.2%

2nd Serve Won49.6%+3.2pp52.8%

Aces / Match8.2+4.33.9

Double Faults / Match6.22.9 fewer3.3

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won34.5%+5.0pp39.5%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted39.2%+1.0pp38.2%

Break Pts Saved71.3%+9.5pp61.8%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won49.9%—50.5%

Serve · 2–3

58.6%1st Serve In+3.9pp62.5%

75.5%1st Serve Won+8.3pp67.2%

49.6%2nd Serve Won+3.2pp52.8%

8.2Aces / Match+4.33.9

6.2Double Faults / Match2.9 fewer3.3

Return · 0–1

34.5%Return Pts Won+5.0pp39.5%

Pressure · 2–0

39.2%Break Pts Converted+1.0pp38.2%

71.3%Break Pts Saved+9.5pp61.8%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

49.9%Total Pts Won—50.5%