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Inaki Montes-De La Torre #275Spain2Jacob Fearnley #110United Kingdom0

Sets 7-6 · 3-0Thu 1 Oct 2026, 12:00Second RoundHard

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageJacob Fearnley · 165 places

Inaki Montes-De La Torre

Spain

Spanish right-hander, born 3 October 2002. Public profile data lists a career-best No. 269 in June 2026 and hard as his favourite surface. A June 2025 report described earlier physical problems as overcome, not as an active concern.

Current ranking: #275
Peak ranking: #269 · 2026
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Jacob Fearnley

United Kingdom

Reached a career-high No. 49 on June 9, 2025. ITF lists hard as his preferred surface; historical college injuries are not treated as a current availability issue.

Current ranking: #110
Peak ranking: #49 · 2025
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 1 Oct 2026, 03:20 · Europe/Bucharest

Second seed Jacob Fearnley (No. 94) faces Inaki Montes-De La Torre (No. 228), an alternate who reached the Setúbal final on 27 September and has won 10 of his last 14 hard-court matches.

Fearnley's serve and ranking point to him winning, probably in straight sets, but his double faults keep the underdog live. Every reviewed price — 1.29 for a Fearnley win, 1.33 for the first or second set, 1.75 for 2-0 — asks more than the record justifies; none is worth backing.

Context

Fearnley arrives after roughly four weeks without a competitive match, while Montes-De La Torre played five matches at the Setúbal M25 from 23 to 27 September before his opener. That rhythm and load contrast, plus a 134-place ranking gap and genuine hard-court form for the underdog, shapes the match without either player reporting a physical problem.

This is the main preparation asymmetry in the match. Fearnley arrived in Porto with roughly four weeks without a competitive match, while Montes-De La Torre had played six matches in the eight days up to and including his opener, five of them in Portugal. The contrast concerns match rhythm and accumulated load rather than any reported physical issue, and because neither player was stretched in the first round its practical weight is limited.
- Montes-De La Torre played five matches between 23 and 27 September at the Setúbal M25 in Portugal, reaching the final.
- Fearnley's previous competitive match was a four-set loss to Tomas Martin Etcheverry in the US Open second round on 2 September.
- Fearnley won his Porto first round 6-1 6-2 .
ConfirmedSources checked 1 Oct 2026, 03:18 · Europe/Bucharest
Fearnley carries a 134-place ranking advantage and the higher seeding into the second round, and his recent tennis has been at tour level rather than this tier. Montes-De La Torre's hard-court form narrows the gap on paper: he has won seven of his last ten matches on the surface and has been competing continuously on Portuguese hard courts. The ranking gap measures accumulated points rather than the specific matchup, and a No. 228 alternate who reached a Challenger final in September is not a routine second-round opponent for a seed.
- Fearnley is seeded second in Porto and ranked No. 94.
- Montes-De La Torre is ranked No. 228, with a live ranking of No. 211 during the event.
- Montes-De La Torre entered the main draw as an alternate and beat Luca Potenza 6-3 6-2.
- Fearnley beat lucky loser Alejo Sanchez Quilez 6-1 6-2.
ConfirmedSources checked 1 Oct 2026, 03:18 · Europe/BucharestPorto second-round match pageen.tennistemple.com · 30 Sep 2026
Fearnley's serve shows up as both a weapon and a liability in the same set of numbers.
The 91 double faults across 15 matches and 49.2% of second-serve points won give an opponent a way into his service games even when the first serve is landing at 58.7%. Montes-De La Torre converted three of seven break points in his opener, so the chances may be there but they will not convert themselves. Nothing here speaks to how Fearnley is serving this particular week; the figures describe the 15-match window only.
- Fearnley averaged 6.1 double faults per match (91 in 15 matches) in the hard-court sample tracked to 29 September 2026.
- He won 72.2% of first-serve points and 49.2% of second-serve points in the same 15-match sample.
He arrives at the best ranking position of his career and is playing his most productive hard-court tennis, with seven wins in his last ten matches on the surface. The climb is recent enough that his entry as an alternate reflects an earlier ranking position rather than his current standing. His titles remain clay-only, so the hard-court sample behind the rise is the better guide to this match.
- Ranking has risen from No. 377 to No. 228 across the past twelve months.
- Live ranking during the Porto Open is No. 211.
- Seven wins in his last ten hard-court matches.
- All four career titles have come on clay.
ConfirmedSources checked 1 Oct 2026, 03:18 · Europe/BucharestPorto second-round match pageen.tennistemple.com · 30 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerUncertainty band: Strong lean

Jacob Fearnley

1.29fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 77.5%

−7.5ppshort

Fearnley's higher ranking and serve quality give him a clear edge, and he looked sharp in his first-round win after a break.

Set 2 WinnerUncertainty band: Lean

Jacob Fearnley

1.33fair 1.59

BetBugs 63% · Market 75.2%

−12.2ppshort

Fearnley's overall strength and second-set record give him the advantage.

Set 1 WinnerUncertainty band: Lean

Jacob Fearnley

1.33fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 75.2%

−13.2ppshort

Fearnley's higher ranking and strong first-set record make him the likely early leader.

Set BettingUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Jacob Fearnley 2-0

1.75fair 1.96

BetBugs 51% · Market 57.1%

−6.1ppshort

Fearnley's straight-set win rate and first-round form make 2-0 the most likely scoreline.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.29
The read
Fearnley's higher ranking and serve quality give him a clear edge, and he looked sharp in his first-round win after a break.
- Ranked 94, second seed; 9-6 on hard in last 15 matches.
- First serve points won 72.2%, but double faults 6.1 per match.
- Won Porto opener 6-1 6-2.
BetBugs · Match WinnerJacob FearnleyMarket price1.29Estimated chance70%

Games0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined match-length averages and competitive sets point to a total just above the line.
- Montes-De La Torre setEvidence total games average 23.36.
- Fearnley setEvidence total games average 22.62.
- Both averages are above the 22.5 line.
BetBugs · Total GamesOver 22.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Fearnley's first sets tend to go longer, pushing the total over 9.5.
- Fearnley's first-set total games average 10.31.
- Montes-De La Torre's first-set total games average 9.21.
- Fearnley has 4 first-set tiebreaks in 13 matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GamesOver 9.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Montes-De La Torre's second sets tend to be close, supporting over 9.5.
- Montes-De La Torre's second-set total games average 10.0.
- Fearnley's second-set total games average 9.46.
- Montes-De La Torre has 3 second-set tiebreaks in 14 matches.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GamesOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.33
The read
Fearnley's overall strength and second-set record give him the advantage.
- Fearnley won the second set in 9 of 13 hard-court matches.
- Montes-De La Torre lost the second set in 5 of 14 hard-court matches.
- Fearnley won his second set 6-2 in the Porto opener.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerJacob FearnleyMarket price1.33Estimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The combined straight-set rate is high enough to make under 2.5 the more likely outcome.
- Fearnley has a 69% straight-set rate in hard-court setEvidence.
- Montes-De La Torre has a 57% straight-set rate in hard-court setEvidence.
- Fearnley won his first round in straight sets.
BetBugs · Total SetsUnder 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.33
The read
Fearnley's higher ranking and strong first-set record make him the likely early leader.
- Fearnley won the first set in 9 of 13 hard-court matches.
- Montes-De La Torre lost the first set in 5 of 14 hard-court matches.
- Fearnley won his first set 6-1 in the Porto opener.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerJacob FearnleyMarket price1.33Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 1.75
The read
Fearnley's straight-set win rate and first-round form make 2-0 the most likely scoreline.
- Fearnley won 7 of 8 hard-court wins in straight sets.
- He won his Porto opener 6-1 6-2.
- Montes-De La Torre has lost in straight sets twice in 14 hard-court matches.
BetBugs · Set BettingJacob Fearnley 2-0Market price1.75Estimated chance51%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The majority of their recent hard-court matches finished without a tiebreak.
- Fearnley's matches with a tiebreak: 5 of 13.
- Montes-De La Torre's matches with a tiebreak: 4 of 14.
- Combined, most of their hard-court matches had no tiebreak.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchNoEstimated chance63%

Prediction history

Jacob Fearnley: 11/14 recent winner projections matched

11 of 14 comparable winner projections favouring Jacob Fearnley matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Jacob Fearnley14 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

1 Aug·ATP Montreal

#110Jacob Fearnley2-0#124Sebastian Ofner

BetBugsJacob Fearnley to win·62%

Matched

1 Aug 2026

ATP Montreal

#110Jacob Fearnley2-0#124Sebastian Ofner

Jacob Fearnley to win

62%probability

Jacob Fearnley won

Matched

25 Jul·Bloomfield Hills - USA

#121Jacob Fearnley2-0#120Michael Zheng

BetBugsJacob Fearnley to win·58%

Matched

25 Jul 2026

Bloomfield Hills - USA

#121Jacob Fearnley2-0#120Michael Zheng

Jacob Fearnley to win

58%probability

Jacob Fearnley won

Matched

23 Jul·Bloomfield Hills - USA

#121Jacob Fearnley2-0#166Tristan Boyer

BetBugsJacob Fearnley to win·62%

Matched

23 Jul 2026

Bloomfield Hills - USA

#121Jacob Fearnley2-0#166Tristan Boyer

Jacob Fearnley to win

62%probability

Jacob Fearnley won

Matched

21 Jul·Bloomfield Hills - USA

#123Jacob Fearnley2-0#179Remy Bertola

BetBugsJacob Fearnley to win·72%

Matched

21 Jul 2026

Bloomfield Hills - USA

#123Jacob Fearnley2-0#179Remy Bertola

Jacob Fearnley to win

72%probability

Jacob Fearnley won

Matched

11 Jul·Newport - USA

#179Alexis Galarneau1-2#159Jacob Fearnley

BetBugsJacob Fearnley to win·58%

Matched

11 Jul 2026

Newport - USA

#179Alexis Galarneau1-2#159Jacob Fearnley

Jacob Fearnley to win

58%probability

Jacob Fearnley won

Matched

Previous match context available

Inaki Montes-De La Torre

11W 4L

6-3 6-2#536Luca Potenza

5-7 6-4 6-3#654Alec Deckers

6-2 6-4#791Michael Agwi

3-6 7-6(5) 6-2#394Lui Maxted

6-0 6-4#478Fausto Tabacco

7-5 6-4#900Benjamin Thomas George

6-3 7-6(8)#268Murphy Cassone

3-6 6-2 6-3#198Felix Balshaw

2-6 7-6(2) 7-6(2)#536Luca Potenza

3-6 6-3 3-0 ret.#197Jack Pinnington Jones

6-2 6-4#257Daniel Rincon

6-2 3-6 6-4#367Mathys Erhard

6-3 6-4#368George Loffhagen

7-6(8) 6-1#255Jay Dylan Hara Friend

3-6 6-3 6-3#508Adrian Boitan

Jacob Fearnley

9W 6L

6-1 6-2#370Alejo Sanchez Quilez

6-3 6-3 3-6 6-3#30Tomas Martin Etcheverry

4-6 6-2 4-6 7-5 6-3#73Martin Landaluce

4-6 6-4 6-4#140Jurij Rodionov

6-4 6-7(4) 6-4#205Luka Pavlovic

7-6(3) 6-3#252Roberto Carballes Baena

6-4 6-1#172Taro Daniel

6-2 6-3#180Alexis Galarneau

6-4 7-5#167Mackenzie Mcdonald

6-3 3-6 6-2#116Nicolas Mejia

6-3 3-6 6-3#14Jakub Mensik

7-6(3) 6-4#81Adrian Mannarino

7-6(3) 6-2#117Sebastian Ofner

7-6(4) 6-3#34Alex Michelsen

6-3 6-4#92Michael Zheng

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

ITInaki Montes-De La TorreTorre

Last 15

5–2

9 core stats · 2 even

Jacob FearnleyFearnleyJF

Inaki Montes-De La Torre carries the stronger recent form — Jacob Fearnley's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In14/15 · 15/1558.0%—58.7%

1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/1569.6%+2.6pp72.2%

2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/1554.6%+5.4pp49.2%

Aces / Match14/15 · 15/152.2+2.64.8

Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/154.12.0 fewer6.1

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/1541.7%—41.3%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/1548.9%+7.4pp41.5%

Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/1569.8%+13.2pp56.6%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/1552.5%+0.8pp51.7%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

58.0%1st Serve In14/15 · 15/15—58.7%

69.6%1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+2.6pp72.2%

54.6%2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+5.4pp49.2%

2.2Aces / Match14/15 · 15/15+2.64.8

4.1Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/152.0 fewer6.1

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

41.7%Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/15—41.3%

Pressure · 2–0

48.9%Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/15+7.4pp41.5%

69.8%Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/15+13.2pp56.6%

Points · 1–0

52.5%Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+0.8pp51.7%