Alexis Galarneau #179Canada11 – 2Jacob Fearnley #159United Kingdom2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.36

The read

Fearnley's superior grass-court serve numbers and higher career win rate on the surface give him a structural edge, while his strong deciding-set record adds resilience in a likely close match.

• Fearnley career grass win% 22-7 (75.9%), Galarneau 10-5 (66.7%)
• Fearnley last 5 matches on grass: 4-1, Galarneau 3-2
• Fearnley first-serve win% 72.2% vs Galarneau 68.7%
• Fearnley deciding-set win% 70% vs Galarneau 51%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have been involved in tight, multi-set battles this week, and their serve/return stats on grass point to a match likely exceeding 22 games.

• Galarneau's last 3 matches: 17, 31, 33 total games
• Fearnley's last 3 matches: 18, 26, 28 total games
• Both players have high hold/break profiles on grass, leading to extended sets

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91

The read

Recent first-set game totals for both players consistently land at 9 or more, suggesting a tight opening set with few breaks.

• Galarneau set1 games in last 3: 9, 9, 10
• Fearnley set1 games in last 3: 9, 9, 12
• Both players hold serve well on grass, reducing early breaks

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

The high frequency of three-set matches for both players in Newport indicates a strong likelihood this semifinal also goes the distance.

• Galarneau 3-set matches this week: 2 of 3
• Fearnley 3-set matches this week: 2 of 3
• Combined deciding-set rate in recent grass form exceeds 50%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.20

The read

Both players have been involved in frequent tiebreaks recently, and their similar serve/return profiles on grass increase the likelihood of at least one breaker.

• Galarneau tiebreak win% 52%, Fearnley 51%
• Galarneau played tiebreaks in 2 of last 3 matches
• Fearnley played tiebreaks in 2 of last 4 matches

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Fearnley's higher ace rate and the expectation of a long match push the combined ace total above the line.

• Fearnley ace rate 7.2% vs Galarneau 4.6%
• Fearnley averages ~6 aces per match on grass, Galarneau ~4
• Combined ace potential in a likely 3-set match exceeds 12