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Predictions graded

Lucas Poullain #369France2Remy Bertola #182Switzerland1

Sets 3-6 · 7-5 · 6-3Wed 30 Sept 2026, 18:49 Predictions gradedSecond RoundI.hard

Predictions4–544%

Edges2–250%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageRemy Bertola · 187 places

Lucas Poullain

France

French right-hander, born 5 December 1995. Public profile sources list a singles career high of No. 244; no reliable preferred-surface statement was found.

Current ranking: #369
Peak ranking: #244
Current age: 30
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Remy Bertola

Switzerland

Swiss right-hander with a one-handed backhand. Public player records list hard as his preferred surface and show a career-best ranking reached in August 2026.

Current ranking: #182
Peak ranking: #176 · 2026
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 30 Sep 2026, 01:03 · Europe/Bucharest

Poullain, a 30-year-old wild card ranked 334, needed almost three hours and six match points to beat top seed Mark Lajal; Bertola, ranked 226, came through in straight sets.

Poullain's hard-court form makes him the likelier winner, and the quoted prices back that: Poullain to win the match, the first set and the second set are each 2.2, with 2-0 at 3.8. Bertola's 1.6 match price does not hold up.

Context

Poullain, 30 and ranked No. 334, entered on a wild card and removed the top seed, so his stored ranking reads lower than the level he has just produced on this court. The win came in a deciding set after nearly three hours, the most demanding opening round of either player in this match. That same effort is the caveat: he spent far longer on court than Bertola and has had only one day to recover before returning.
- Entered the Mouilleron-le-Captif main draw on a wild card
- Beat top seed Mark Lajal 7-6(4), 5-7, 6-3 in the first round
- Needed six match points and close to three hours on court
- Let a set lead slip before winning the deciding set
ConfirmedSources checked 30 Sep 2026, 01:01 · Europe/BucharestTennisActuwww.tennisactu.net · 29 Sep 2026
Poullain's hard-court results since early August have been decisive whenever he loses.
If Bertola takes this match, the record points to a straight-sets win rather than a three-set one, while Poullain's four three-set wins in the same window, including the Lajal opener, show he can also go the distance when the match is tight.
- 15 hard-court matches tracked, 4 August to 29 September 2026
- Scorelines in that window: 2-0 seven times, 2-1 four times, 0-2 four times
- All four defeats came in straight sets, with no three-set loss recorded
Bertola's second sets have been his longest stretch of the match, and he splits them almost evenly.
Bertola has stayed competitive in second sets even in matches he loses, and four of nine have needed a tiebreak, so a quick second set for Poullain is not the pattern Bertola has been bringing.
- Nine hard-court matches tracked, 14 July to 29 September 2026
- Second sets: four wins, five losses, 5.67 games won and 5.44 games lost, 11.1 total games on average
- Four of those nine second sets went to a tiebreak
- Five of the nine matches overall contained a tiebreak; total games average 24.9 per match
Bertola, the higher-ranked player here at No. 226, handled a qualifier ranked outside the top 850 without dropping a set in his opening match. That gives him a shorter route into this round than Poullain, whose first match ran close to three hours. The limitation is that Reco is a low-ranked opponent, so this confirms progression more than it tests Bertola's level.
- Beat qualifier Alexandre Reco 6-4, 6-3 in the first round
- Won in straight sets without a deciding set
- Ranked No. 226 to Reco's No. 882
ConfirmedSources checked 30 Sep 2026, 01:01 · Europe/BucharestTennisActuwww.tennisactu.net · 29 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Poullain's stronger hard-court record and steadier serve make him the more likely winner.
- Poullain is 11-4 on hard in his last 15 completed matches; Bertola is 4-6
- Poullain has won 52.5% of points on hard versus Bertola's 48.8%
- Bertola averaged 6.1 double faults per match (86 in 14)
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonLucas PoullainEstimated chance55%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
First sets for both players usually pass ten games, with several reaching tiebreaks.
- Poullain's first sets average 10.3 games
- Bertola's first sets average 10.2 games
- Poullain's first sets produced 3 tiebreaks in 15, Bertola's 1 in 9
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Poullain's second sets are typically decided before ten games are played.
- Poullain's second sets average 8.9 games
- Poullain averaged only 3.8 games lost in second sets
- Bertola's second-set losses have often been one-sided
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bertola's matches tend to run long, which raises the chance of a higher combined game count.
- Bertola's hard-court matches average 24.9 total games
- Poullain's hard-court matches average 21.9 total games
- Four of Bertola's last six matches went three sets, each with 31 or more games
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 23.5Estimated chance54%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Poullain's second-set record on hard is clearly the stronger of the two.
- Poullain has won the second set in 10 of 15 hard-court matches
- Bertola has won the second set in 4 of 9
- Poullain wins 55.8% of his games on hard
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonLucas PoullainEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Straight-set results are the more common outcome in both players' hard-court records.
- Poullain's hard-court matches went to three sets 4 times in 15
- Bertola's hard-court matches went to three sets 3 times in 9
- Poullain won 2-0 in 7 of his 15 hard-court matches
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Poullain starts sets better than Bertola, who has lost the opening set more often than he has won it.
- Poullain has won the first set in 8 of 15 hard-court matches
- Bertola has lost the first set in 6 of 9 hard-court matches
- Bertola averaged 4.67 games won in first sets
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostLucas PoullainEstimated chance57%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The majority of both players' hard-court matches finish without a tiebreak.
- Only 4 of Poullain's 15 hard-court matches had a tiebreak
- Bertola's hard-court matches had a tiebreak in 5 of 9
- Poullain holds serve 68.4% of the time on first serve
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The two players' combined hard-court ace rate sits below the line on average.
- Bertola 4.1 aces and Poullain 2.8 aces per hard-court match combine below the line
- Poullain's 68.4% first-serve rate limits free points for opponents
- Bertola has played several short two-set matches
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 8.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Even with Bertola's high count, the combined average stays below the line.
- Poullain averages 1.1 double faults per match
- Bertola averages 5.6 double faults per hard-court match
- Combined hard-court average is about 6.7 per match
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 7.5Estimated chance57%

Previous match context available

Lucas Poullain

11W 4L

7-6(4) 5-7 6-3#147Mark Lajal

6-3 6-2—Diogo Morais

6-3 6-4#177Clement Chidekh

7-5 6-4#212David Jorda Sanchis

6-4 6-2#371Moez Echargui

6-3 6-2#302Oliver Tarvet

6-3 6-2#394Lui Maxted

6-7(5) 6-3 7-5#344Michael Geerts

6-4 6-2#465Viktor Durasovic

6-0 7-6(5)#244Max Basing

5-7 6-2 6-3#152Ilia Simakin

6-1 6-0#837Gijs Brouwer

6-7(3) 6-1 6-4#442Kenta Miyoshi

7-5 7-5#493Alexandr Binda

6-4 6-1#384Dan Added

Remy Bertola

6W 9L

6-4 6-3#882Alexandre Reco 7-6(5) 7-6(5)#93Jesper De Jong

3-6 6-4 10-8#270Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida

6-3 6-7(5) 6-3#203Edas Butvilas

4-6 6-3 7-6(3)#286Jerome Kym

5-7 7-6(4) 6-4#178Harry Wendelken

6-3 6-4#230Alejandro Moro Canas

7-5 7-6(2)#195Andre Ilagan

6-4 6-4#94Jacob Fearnley

6-1 6-4#437Spencer Johnson

6-2 6-1#81Adrian Mannarino

2-6 6-4 3-6 7-5 6-2#244Max Basing

4-6 7-6(4) 6-2#140Jurij Rodionov

2-6 7-6(3) 6-1#215Liam Draxl

6-4 7-5#114Christopher O'Connell

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

LPLucas PoullainPoullain

Last 15

6–2

9 core stats · 1 even

Remy BertolaBertolaRB

Lucas Poullain carries the stronger recent form — Remy Bertola's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In15/15 · 14/1568.4%+14.5pp53.9%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/1568.1%+3.3pp71.4%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/1551.9%—51.2%

Aces / Match15/15 · 14/152.8+2.65.4

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/151.15.0 fewer6.1

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/1542.0%+6.5pp35.5%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/1546.2%+2.6pp43.6%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/1560.2%+6.9pp53.3%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/1552.5%+3.9pp48.6%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

68.4%1st Serve In15/15 · 14/15+14.5pp53.9%

68.1%1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+3.3pp71.4%

51.9%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/15—51.2%

2.8Aces / Match15/15 · 14/15+2.65.4

1.1Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/155.0 fewer6.1

Return · 1–0

42.0%Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+6.5pp35.5%

Pressure · 2–0

46.2%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/15+2.6pp43.6%

60.2%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/15+6.9pp53.3%

Points · 1–0

52.5%Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+3.9pp48.6%

Lucas Poullain

Remy Bertola

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Lucas Poullain

Lucas Poullain

Lucas Poullain

Lucas Poullain 2-0

Result1 of 1 landed

Games1 of 3 landed

Sets1 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Lucas Poullain

Remy Bertola

Stat Battle