FranceMouilleron-Le-Captif - FranceFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Dan Added #374France0Gauthier Onclin #172Belgium2

Sets 6-7 · 2-6Mon 28 Sept 2026, 15:08 Predictions gradedFirst RoundI.hard

Predictions2–722%

Edges0–20%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageGauthier Onclin · 202 places

Dan Added

France

French right-hander who reached his career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 194 in November 2025. ITF's 2026 record through 3 August shows more wins on hard courts than clay, but it does not explicitly identify a preferred surface.

Current ranking: #374
Peak ranking: #194 · 2025
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Carpet
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Gauthier Onclin

Belgium

At 25, he reached a career-high No. 167 on 3 August 2026. The ITF lists hard as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #172
Peak ranking: #167 · 2026
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 27 Sep 2026, 15:08 · Europe/Bucharest

Onclin is the higher-ranked player but arrives on four straight defeats, and Added has lost five of his last six, so this first-round Challenger match is closer than No. 172 against No. 374 suggests.

Onclin still looks the likelier winner, most plausibly in three sets, and two quoted prices are worth considering: Onclin 2-1 at 3.75 and Added to win the match at 3.3. Onclin simply to win at 1.29 is not.

Context

Onclin, 25, is the higher-ranked player in this fixture and his most recent competitive match came at national-team level rather than on the Challenger circuit, so the freshest evidence on him is a straight-sets defeat to a top-150 opponent . He has not won a match since 19 August, so his form going into a new tournament week has no recent confirmation. The counterweight is that he had won three consecutive hard-court matches in mid-August, including against Timofey Skatov, and his No. 172 ranking sits close to the career-high No. 167 he reached in August.
- Jurij Rodionov defeated Gauthier Onclin 6-4 6-1 in the first rubber of the Austria-Belgium Davis Cup qualifying tie in Vienna .
- The tie was Onclin's first match for Belgium in the Davis Cup.
- Belgium's captain, Steve Darcis, brought Onclin into the squad after Raphaël Collignon withdrew with a knee injury ahead of the tie.
ConfirmedSources checked 27 Sep 2026, 15:06 · Europe/Bucharest
Onclin, the higher-ranked player at No. 172, has been finding a way through on hard courts but rarely quickly.
His four wins in eight completed hard matches each required real work, which suggests any edge he holds over Added may take time to show. The counterweight is that four of the same eight matches ended in straight-set defeats, so the pattern runs both ways.
- Onclin's eight completed hard-court matches from 12 August to 8 September 2026 produced a 4-4 record and a 42.1% set win rate (8 of 19 sets).
- Three of his four wins went to a deciding set, and his total games average in the sample was 23.0 per match.
- His two most recent hard-court wins finished 14-11 and 17-15 in games, on 18 and 19 August 2026.
This is an indoor hard-court Challenger 75 whose draw was released, with play spread across 27 and 28 September, so both players start a fresh tournament week with no completed match at the venue behind them. Neither is being asked to adapt to an unfamiliar surface: hard courts account for almost all of their 2026 results, and hard is the surface Onclin's profile lists as his preference. The ranking gap is the sharper contrast, Onclin at No. 172 against Added at No. 374.
- The Mouilleron-le-Captif event appears on the week-39 Challenger entry list as an ATP Challenger 75.
- The singles main draw for the 2026 edition was published .
- Qualifying and the start of the first round are scheduled across 27 and 28 September 2026, with the event played indoors on hard courts.
ConfirmedSources checked 27 Sep 2026, 15:06 · Europe/Bucharest
Added comes in at No. 374 having won six and lost eight of the completed hard-court matches in this window.
Against an opponent whose hard-court matches have tended to run long, Added's own record points the other way: an early-set advantage has usually settled his matches. The sample covers only July to September 2026, and the aggregate excludes one retired match, so it should not be read as a settled habit.
- Added's 14 completed hard-court matches from 21 July to 15 September 2026 contain seven 0-2 defeats, five 2-0 wins, one 2-1 win and one 1-2 defeat.
- Only two of the 14 matches reached a deciding set, and the aggregate excludes one retirement.
- His first-set record in the sample is 7-7 and his second-set record is 5-9.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Onclin's higher ranking and stronger serve numbers on hard give him the clearer path to the match.
- Onclin is ranked 172, Added 374
- Onclin's hard-court set evidence: 4-4 record, 66.6% first-serve points won
- Added has lost five of six completed matches, including to players ranked 406 and 558
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonGauthier OnclinEstimated chance62%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Onclin's hard matches have produced higher game totals, especially in his wins, pushing this over 21.5.
- Onclin's hard set evidence total games average is 23
- Onclin's recent hard wins finished 14-11 and 17-15 in games
- Added's hard total games average is 20.1
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' first sets average around 9.5 games, making over 9.5 a slight pick.
- Added's hard set1 games average is 9.5
- Onclin's hard set1 games average is 9.75
- Combined set1 average is close to 9.5
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Onclin's second sets tend to last slightly longer, which nudges this over 9.5.
- Onclin's hard set2 games average is 9.75
- Added's hard set2 games average is 9.29
- Onclin's hard matches average 23 total games
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance51%

Sets0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Added has been less poor in second sets than Onclin on hard, so he has a slight advantage here.
- Added's hard set2 record is 5-9
- Onclin's hard set2 record is 2-6
- Added's set2 games average is 4.0 vs 5.29
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostDan AddedEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Onclin's matches often go the distance, which lifts the chance of a third set.
- Onclin's hard set evidence average is 2.375 sets
- Onclin had three 2-1 results in eight hard matches
- Added's hard set evidence average is 2.14 sets
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Added has a better first-set record than Onclin on hard, giving him a slight advantage to take the opener.
- Added's hard set1 record is 7-7
- Onclin's hard set1 record is 3-5
- Added's set1 games average is 4.57 vs 4.93
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostDan AddedEstimated chance52%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The evidence strongly points to a match without a tiebreak given both players' recent patterns.
- 20 of 22 combined hard matches had no tiebreak
- Onclin has 0 tiebreak matches in 8
- Added has 2 tiebreak matches in 14
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance88%

Prediction history

Gauthier Onclin: 8/13 recent winner projections matched

8 of 13 comparable winner projections favouring Gauthier Onclin matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Gauthier Onclin13 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

24 Jul·Tampere - Finland

#178Gauthier Onclin2-1#189Tom Gentzsch

BetBugsGauthier Onclin to win·55%

Matched

24 Jul 2026

Tampere - Finland

#178Gauthier Onclin2-1#189Tom Gentzsch

Gauthier Onclin to win

55%probability

Gauthier Onclin won

Matched

22 Jul·Tampere - Finland

#178Gauthier Onclin2-0#439Niels Visker

BetBugsGauthier Onclin to win·62%

Matched

22 Jul 2026

Tampere - Finland

#178Gauthier Onclin2-0#439Niels Visker

Gauthier Onclin to win

62%probability

Gauthier Onclin won

Matched

20 Jul·Tampere - Finland

#169Gauthier Onclin2-0#303Duje Ajdukovic

BetBugsGauthier Onclin to win·58%

Matched

20 Jul 2026

Tampere - Finland

#169Gauthier Onclin2-0#303Duje Ajdukovic

Gauthier Onclin to win

58%probability

Gauthier Onclin won

Matched

14 Jul·Bunschoten - Netherlands

#529Thijs Boogaard2-1#169Gauthier Onclin

BetBugsGauthier Onclin to win·72%

Missed

14 Jul 2026

Bunschoten - Netherlands

#529Thijs Boogaard2-1#169Gauthier Onclin

Gauthier Onclin to win

72%probability

Thijs Boogaard won

Missed

24 Jun·ATP Wimbledon

#183Gauthier Onclin1-2#150Shintaro Mochizuki

BetBugsGauthier Onclin to win·62%

Missed

24 Jun 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#183Gauthier Onclin1-2#150Shintaro Mochizuki

Gauthier Onclin to win

62%probability

Shintaro Mochizuki won

Missed

Previous match context available

Dan Added

7W 8L

6-2 6-4#78Adrian Mannarino

6-4 6-4#406Daniel Masur

6-4 6-3#558John Echeverria

6-2 3-0 ret.#836Etienne Donnet

6-4 6-2—Philippe Renard

6-0 6-3#285Jerome Kym

6-4 6-3#268Philip Henning

7-6(4) 6-3#651Goncalo Marques

6-3 7-6(2)—Pablo Perez Navarro

6-3 7-5#2043Stefan Vujic

6-3 6-4—Joao Dinis Silva

6-4 6-1#325Lucas Poullain

3-6 6-3 6-4#447Kenta Miyoshi

7-5 2-6 6-2#325Lucas Poullain

6-2 6-1#298Florent Bax

Gauthier Onclin

7W 8L

6-4 6-1#139Jurij Rodionov

6-4 6-2#294Raphael Perot

7-5 7-5#180Vitaliy Sachko

6-4 6-4#71Vit Kopriva

2-6 6-2 6-3#199Timofey Skatov

6-4 5-7 6-4#228Alejandro Moro Canas

6-3 6-4#606Ryan Seggerman

6-3 6-3#206Andres Andrade

6-4 3-6 6-3#337Tyler Zink

6-2 2-6 7-6(2)#186Diego Dedura

6-2 6-7(5) 6-3#162Tom Gentzsch

6-2 7-6(6)#414Niels Visker

7-6(13) 6-1#345Duje Ajdukovic

3-6 7-6(3) 6-4#481Thijs Boogaard

5-7 7-6(5) 6-2#327Florian Broska

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

DADan AddedAdded

Last 15

4–4

9 core stats · 1 even

Gauthier OnclinOnclinGO

Dead-even recent form — the edges are in serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In15/15 · 13/1552.3%+4.6pp56.9%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 13/1572.0%+5.3pp66.7%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 13/1545.0%+7.5pp52.5%

Aces / Match15/15 · 13/155.0+3.21.8

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 13/152.80.4 fewer3.2

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won15/15 · 13/1538.4%—39.0%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 13/1536.2%+11.6pp47.8%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 13/1556.3%+2.0pp54.3%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won15/15 · 13/1548.7%+1.1pp49.8%

Serve · 3–2

52.3%1st Serve In15/15 · 13/15+4.6pp56.9%

72.0%1st Serve Won15/15 · 13/15+5.3pp66.7%

45.0%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 13/15+7.5pp52.5%

5.0Aces / Match15/15 · 13/15+3.21.8

2.8Double Faults / Match15/15 · 13/150.4 fewer3.2

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

38.4%Return Pts Won15/15 · 13/15—39.0%

Pressure · 1–1

36.2%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 13/15+11.6pp47.8%

56.3%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 13/15+2.0pp54.3%

Points · 0–1

48.7%Total Pts Won15/15 · 13/15+1.1pp49.8%

Dan Added

Gauthier Onclin

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Gauthier Onclin 2-1

Dan Added

Result1 of 1 landed

Games1 of 3 landed

Sets0 of 3 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Dan Added

Gauthier Onclin

Stat Battle