Gauthier Onclin #178Belgium22 – 1Tom Gentzsch #189Germany1

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.95

The read

Onclin's lighter workload and superior return stats on clay give him a marginal edge over a potentially fatigued Gentzsch, who has played three consecutive three-setters.

• Onclin's last15 clay record is 3-4 (42.9%), but his recent Tampere wins over Ajdukovic (rank 306) and Visker (rank 439) show clean straight-set form.
• Gentzsch's last15 clay record is 6-4 (60%), but he has played three consecutive three-setters in the last four days, including a 6-0 final set loss to Den Ouden.
• Onclin's last15 clay return points won is 41.3% vs Gentzsch's 37.9%, giving Onclin a slight edge in breaking serve.
• Onclin's first-serve points won on clay in last15 is 68.1% vs Gentzsch's 74.6%, but Onclin's second-serve points won is 53.3% vs Gentzsch's 45.7%.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

The high frequency of three-set matches and competitive game totals in both players' recent clay form supports a match exceeding 21.5 games.

• Onclin's last15 clay matches average 26.7 games per match (187 total games in 7 matches).
• Gentzsch's last15 clay matches average 25.0 games per match (250 total games in 10 matches).
• Both players have a high rate of three-set matches recently: Onclin 4 of last 7 clay, Gentzsch 6 of last 10 clay.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

The high three-set rate in both players' recent clay matches makes Over 2.5 sets a likely outcome.

• Onclin's last15 clay matches: 4 of 7 went to three sets.
• Gentzsch's last15 clay matches: 6 of 10 went to three sets.
• Combined, 10 of 17 recent clay matches for both players went the distance.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Onclin's recent trend of winning first sets in Tampere, combined with Gentzsch's slow starts, suggests a slight edge for Onclin in set 1.

• Onclin won the first set in both Tampere matches this week, while Gentzsch lost the first set in his last two matches.
• Onclin's last15 clay first-set win rate is not directly available, but his overall first-set win conversion career is 90%.
• Gentzsch's last15 clay record shows he lost the first set in 4 of his last 10 clay matches.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Gentzsch's strong serving, especially in longer matches, combined with Onclin's modest ace count, should push total aces over 8.5.

• Gentzsch averages 5.9 aces per match on clay in last15, with a high of 11 aces in a grass match.
• Onclin averages 1.6 aces per match on clay in last15.
• Combined average aces per match: 7.5, but Gentzsch's ace rate can spike in longer matches.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have high double fault rates on clay, making Over 7.5 double faults likely.

• Onclin averages 5.3 double faults per match on clay in last15.
• Gentzsch averages 4.5 double faults per match on clay in last15.
• Combined average double faults per match: 9.8, with both players consistently above 4 per match.