Gauthier Onclin vs Duje Ajdukovic: result, stats and head-to-head

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Onclin holds a ranking advantage and stronger career clay numbers, but his recent clay form (1-4) is poor; Ajdukovic's all-clay recent window is mediocre, giving Onclin a slight edge.
- Onclin's last 15 overall record: 8-7 (53.3%), but 1-4 on clay in that window.
- Ajdukovic's last 15 overall record: 8-7 (53.3%), all on clay, with 48.9% games won.
- Onclin's career clay win%: 107-? (approx 60%+), Ajdukovic's career clay win%: 211-? (approx 58%).
- Onclin's ranking: 169 vs Ajdukovic's 303, indicating a moderate class edge.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonGauthier OnclinEstimated chance58%

Games1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Given the close expected match, Ajdukovic is likely to keep the game margin within 3.5 games, as both players have near-even games-won rates.
- Onclin's last 15 clay matches: avg games won 47.9%, lost 52.1%.
- Ajdukovic's last 15 clay matches: avg games won 48.9%, lost 51.1%.
- Head-to-head: no prior meetings, but both have similar games-won percentages.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostDuje Ajdukovic +3.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players struggle to dominate on clay recently, with many close sets and three-setters, making a longer match likely.
- Onclin's last 15 clay matches: avg 148.9 min, 47.9% games won, many three-setters.
- Ajdukovic's last 15 clay matches: avg 127.9 min, 48.9% games won, 8 of 15 went to deciding set.
- Both players have low games-won percentages, indicating tight matches.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Both players have average first-set game counts near 10, and their serving stats don't suggest easy holds, making over 9.5 likely.
- Onclin's last 15: avg set1 games 9.8, Ajdukovic's: 9.5.
- On clay, both players' recent sets often go to 10+ games.
- No dominant server to expect quick sets.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Second sets mirror first sets in competitiveness, with both players having similar game averages, supporting over 9.5.
- Onclin's last 15: avg set2 games 9.6, Ajdukovic's: 9.4.
- Similar to set1, second sets tend to be competitive.
- Both players have break-point conversion rates around 40%.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance58%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players frequently go to deciding sets, especially on clay, making a three-set match more likely than not.
- Ajdukovic's last 15: 53.3% of matches went to three sets.
- Onclin's last 15: 40% of matches went to three sets.
- Combined, over half of their recent matches have gone the distance.
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Onclin's strong career first-set conversion suggests he starts well, but recent clay struggles make this a low-confidence lean.
- Onclin's first-set win conversion career: 89%, but recent clay sets won only 40%.
- Ajdukovic's first-set win conversion career: 85%, but recent clay sets won 50%.
- Onclin's last 5 matches: 2-3, with first-set wins in 2 of those.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonGauthier OnclinEstimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have low ace rates, especially Onclin, and clay reduces ace potential, making under 7.5 likely.
- Onclin's last 15: 1.6 aces per match, Ajdukovic's: 3.6 aces per match.
- Combined average: 5.2 aces per match.
- On clay, ace counts tend to be lower due to slower surface.
BetBugs · Total AcesUnder 7.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Onclin's high double-fault rate, especially on clay, pushes the combined total above 6.5, though Ajdukovic's lower rate adds uncertainty.
- Onclin's last 15: 4.2 double faults per match, Ajdukovic's: 2.6.
- Combined average: 6.8 double faults per match.
- Onclin's clay double faults: 5.4 per match in last 5 clay matches.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 6.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have moderate tiebreak rates, and close sets are expected, giving a slight edge to at least one tiebreak occurring.
- Onclin's tiebreak win% career: 53%, Ajdukovic's: 49%.
- Onclin's last 15: 4 tiebreaks in 15 matches, Ajdukovic's: 5 tiebreaks in 15 matches.
- Combined tiebreak frequency: ~0.6 per match.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonYesEstimated chance52%

The percentage shows our estimated chance. Tap a row for the context and share card.18+ · predictions, not guarantees

Gauthier Onclin #169Belgium2Duje Ajdukovic #303Croatia0

Player Profiles

Gauthier Onclin

Duje Ajdukovic

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 9.5

Over 9.5

Gauthier Onclin 2-1

Duje Ajdukovic

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 1 landed

Games1 of 4 landed

Sets1 of 2 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Gauthier Onclin

Duje Ajdukovic

Stat Battle