Plovdiv - BulgariaFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Calvin Hemery #326France1Carlos Taberner #409Spain2

Sets 6-1 · 5-7 · 4-6Fri 25 Sept 2026, 11:00 Predictions gradedQuarter-FinalClay

Predictions3–633%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageCalvin Hemery · 83 places

Calvin Hemery

France

Born 28 January 1995; right-handed and 191 cm. His career-high singles ranking was No. 116 in April 2018; ITF lists clay as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #326
Peak ranking: #116 · 2018
Current age: 31
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Carlos Taberner

Spain

Reached a career-high ranking of No. 83 on 4 August 2025. ATP lists clay as his favourite surface.

Current ranking: #409
Peak ranking: #83 · 2025
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 24 Sep 2026, 02:28 · Europe/Bucharest

Hemery and Taberner meet in a Plovdiv clay quarterfinal, with Hemery the better-ranked and better-performing of the two on clay of late - but he has lost the first set in each of his last six clay matches, so Taberner can lead early.

Hemery is the pick to win, and 2.2 is the match-winner price worth taking. Taberner at 1.6 is one to leave.

Context

Hemery, 31, had not strung two wins together since July, so this quarterfinal ends a stretch in which his results generally stopped before the closing rounds of events. Beating Roca Batalla matters because the Spaniard, ranked No. 310, led by a set and a break on the surface both men prefer before Hemery reversed the match 6-4 6-1. The limitation is that this is a 75-level clay Challenger and the two wins came against opponents ranked No. 368 and No. 310, so the run is a return toward form rather than a result against top-100 opposition.
- Roca Batalla led by a set and a break before Hemery took the second and third sets 6-4 6-1.
- The round-of-16 win was Hemery's first run of consecutive singles wins since July 2026.
- It is Hemery's sixth Challenger quarterfinal of the 2026 season.
ReportedSources checked 24 Sep 2026, 02:26 · Europe/Bucharest
Taberner is contesting the event at No. 425, far below the No. 83 he reached in August 2025, with his season only resuming in late July after an injury absence. That context explains why a former top-100 player is meeting No. 321 in a 75-level Challenger quarterfinal, and why his ranking understates his clay level. He has since put more than ten matches behind him, almost all on clay, so the absence is no longer an active restriction on his schedule.
- Taberner's recorded matches stop after 20 January 2026 and resume on 28 July 2026.
- His career-high ranking of No. 83 came in August 2025; he is currently No. 425.
- The absence behind his return was a long injury layoff.
ReportedSources checked 24 Sep 2026, 02:26 · Europe/Bucharest
Hemery has been a slow starter on clay this season, and the opening set of this quarterfinal is where his record is thinnest.
Hemery has won 4.92 games per first set against 5.33 lost in that 12-match clay window, with three of those opening sets going to tiebreaks, so the start has often been his weakest passage. The counterpoint sits in the same sample: six of the 12 matches went to a deciding set and he won five of them, which is how he has kept winning despite giving away openers. Retired matches are excluded from this set data, so the sample covers completed matches only.
- Hemery's 12 completed clay matches from 30 June to 23 September 2026 produced a 4-8 first-set record.
- He averages 4.92 games won and 5.33 games lost per first set, with three first-set tiebreaks in the sample.
- Six of the 12 matches reached a deciding set and Hemery won five of them (five 2-1 wins, one 1-2 loss).
- Retired matches are excluded from the sample.
Six sets is the longer route into this quarterfinal, and the opener against Galan was settled entirely in tiebreaks, so Hemery's serve has carried him through the narrowest margins of the week. That matters here mainly as a courtship question against Taberner, who closed his round of 16 in straight sets. Both men won their round of 16 on 23 September and this quarterfinal is two days later, so the extra time on court is unlikely to separate them.
- Hemery beat Daniel Elahi Galan 6-7(3) 7-6(4) 7-6(5) in the Plovdiv first round.
- No set in that match was settled by a break of serve.
- Hemery has played six singles sets across two matches before this quarterfinal.
ConfirmedSources checked 24 Sep 2026, 02:26 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Hemery has the better recent clay record and a higher ranking, giving him a slight advantage.
- Hemery is 7-5 on clay in his last 12 completed matches; Taberner is 5-5 in his last 10.
- Hemery is ranked 321, Taberner 425.
- Hemery has won two three-set matches in Plovdiv this week.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostCalvin HemeryEstimated chance53%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have been involved in long clay matches, and a three-set match is likely.
- Hemery's clay matches average 24.4 total games; Taberner's average 24.2.
- Hemery's two Plovdiv matches produced 26 and 39 games.
- Taberner's last three clay matches produced 23, 35 and 29 games.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 24.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
First sets on clay between these players tend to go beyond nine games.
- Hemery's first sets average 10.25 games; Taberner's average 10.5 games.
- Hemery has had three first-set tiebreaks in 12 clay matches; Taberner has had one in 10.
- Both players have won first sets by 7-5 or 6-4 recently.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets have been slightly shorter on average for both players this clay season.
- Hemery's second sets average 9.33 games; Taberner's average 9.4.
- Both averages are below the 9.5 line.
- Hemery has won second sets 6-4 and 6-0 recently; Taberner 6-4 and 6-2.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance58%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
When these players win on clay, they often need a deciding set.
- Hemery has gone to three sets in 6 of 12 clay matches; Taberner in 5 of 10.
- Both players have won a three-set match in Plovdiv this week.
- Hemery's first-round match here went to three tiebreaks.
BetBugs · Total SetswonOver 2.5Estimated chance71%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Hemery's slow starts are well documented recently, while Taberner has been stronger early.
- Taberner has won 4 of 10 first sets on clay; Hemery has won 4 of 12.
- Hemery lost the first set in all six of his recent clay matches.
- Taberner won three of his last five clay first sets.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostCarlos TabernerEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Hemery often recovers after losing the first set, and his second-set record is stronger than his first.
- Hemery is 6-6 in second sets on clay; Taberner is 5-5.
- Hemery won the second set in four of his last six clay matches.
- Hemery came back from a set down in both Plovdiv wins.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostCalvin HemeryEstimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Tiebreaks are not common in their clay matches overall.
- Hemery has had no tiebreak in 9 of 12 clay matches; Taberner in 7 of 10.
- Only 6 of their combined 22 clay matches had a tiebreak.
- Hemery's second-round match had no tiebreak.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance60%

Previous match context available

Calvin Hemery

9W 6L

3-6 6-4 6-1#310Oriol Roca Batalla 6-7(3) 7-6(4) 7-6(5)#368Daniel Elahi Galan

6-4 6-2#147Dusan Lajovic

6-0 ret.#316Gilles Arnaud Bailly

7-5 5-7 4-2 ret.#340Thomas Faurel

3-6 6-0 6-2#407Eric Vanshelboim

7-5 7-5#282Hynek Barton

6-3 3-6 6-3#259Mika Brunold

6-2 3-6 7-5#611Kai Wehnelt

6-4 6-3#170Federico Cina

7-6(2) 2-6 6-3#281Daniel Michalski

7-6(5) 7-6(7)#256Marvin Moeller

1-2 ret.#369Eliakim Coulibaly

6-3 6-1#386Carlo Alberto Caniato

6-2 6-2#311Anton Matusevich

Carlos Taberner

6W 9L

7-5 6-4#380Max Wiskandt 6-4 1-6 6-0#300Petr Nesterov

5-7 7-6(5) 6-4#519Gerard Campana Lee

6-3 7-6(11)#116Henrique Rocha

6-3 3-6 6-2 6-2#38Zizou Bergs

7-5 ret.#187Jan Kumstat

6-7(5) 6-4 3-0 ret.#238Andrej Nedic

5-7 6-2 6-3#402Olle Wallin

7-6(4) 7-5#176Elmer Moller

3-6 6-3 6-3#362Marko Topo

6-2 6-0#277Juan Bautista Torres

6-4 6-1#274Genaro Alberto Olivieri

6-4 6-0 6-3#86Lorenzo Sonego

6-3 6-2#109Alexander Shevchenko

6-4 3-6 6-3#445Ivan Gakhov

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

CHCalvin HemeryHemery

Last 15

8–1

9 core stats · 0 even

Carlos TabernerTabernerCT

Calvin Hemery carries the stronger recent form — Carlos Taberner's route runs through return.

Serve · 5–0

1st Serve In63.8%+1.1pp62.7%

1st Serve Won68.6%+2.7pp65.9%

2nd Serve Won48.5%+1.0pp47.5%

Aces / Match3.7+1.81.9

Double Faults / Match3.61.0 fewer4.6

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won39.1%+0.8pp39.9%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted42.9%+3.1pp39.8%

Break Pts Saved63.2%+7.8pp55.4%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won50.5%+1.1pp49.4%

Serve · 5–0

63.8%1st Serve In+1.1pp62.7%

68.6%1st Serve Won+2.7pp65.9%

48.5%2nd Serve Won+1.0pp47.5%

3.7Aces / Match+1.81.9

3.6Double Faults / Match1.0 fewer4.6

Return · 0–1

39.1%Return Pts Won+0.8pp39.9%

Pressure · 2–0

42.9%Break Pts Converted+3.1pp39.8%

63.2%Break Pts Saved+7.8pp55.4%

Points · 1–0

50.5%Total Pts Won+1.1pp49.4%