Plovdiv - BulgariaFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Carlos Taberner #418Spain2Petr Nesterov #3011

Sets 6-4 · 1-6 · 6-0Tue 22 Sept 2026, 07:13 Predictions gradedFirst RoundClay

Predictions4–544%

Edges1–325%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantagePetr Nesterov · 117 places

Carlos Taberner

Spain

Limited reliable public profile information found; external profile research could not be completed for this match. The structured sample for this fixture lists him at No. 418, right-handed with a two-handed backhand, 183 cm, with 12 of his last 15 tracked matches on clay.

Current ranking: #418
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Petr Nesterov

Limited reliable public profile information found; external profile research could not be completed for this match. The structured sample for this fixture lists him at No. 301, right-handed with a two-handed backhand, with all 15 tracked matches on clay.

Current ranking: #301
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 21 Sep 2026, 11:45 · Europe/Bucharest

Nesterov holds the better clay record and the higher ranking, but he arrives in Plovdiv on three straight defeats.

He remains the likelier winner, and the 2.6 for him to win the match offers value — one of four Nesterov prices that do, alongside 2.4 to take the first set, 2.4 for the second and 4.25 for a 2-0 win.

Context

Taberner's clay results have been built in the middle of matches rather than at the start of them.
The split covers ten completed best-of-three clay matches, with two further matches excluded as retirements. It matters here because Nesterov took 9 of 15 opening sets in his own clay window, so a quick start from him is the more likely pattern. Taberner's 6-4 second-set record means an early deficit would not settle the match on its own.
- Taberner, clay, 10 completed matches (14 Nov 2025 – 15 Sep 2026): set1 record 3-7, averaging 4.6 games won and 5.1 lost.
- Same sample: set2 record 6-4, averaging 5.4 games won and 3.8 lost.
- Two retirements excluded from the sample; four of the ten matches featured a tiebreak.
Nesterov has been the steadier of the two players in set-by-set clay play in this window.
The window covers 15 best-of-three clay matches, with no retirements excluded. He averaged 5.13 games won to 4.93 lost in first sets and 5.47 to 4.20 in second sets, so the edge is narrow in the opener and clearer in the second. Six tiebreaks in 15 matches show how often these sets have turned on a few points.
- Nesterov, clay, 15 matches (29 Jun – 1 Sep 2026): set1 record 9-6, averaging 5.13 games won and 4.93 lost.
- Same window: set2 record 10-5, averaging 5.47 games won and 4.20 lost.
- Six of the 15 matches featured a tiebreak; average total sets 2.47.
Taberner's most recent clay outing followed the pattern of much of his season: a competitive start without the finish.
This is the freshest result in the record and it came against an opponent ranked outside the top 500, so it is a caution rather than a decisive signal by itself. He won 17 games to 18 across the three sets, which shows how narrow the margins were. With Nesterov's most recent outings also ending in defeat, neither player arrives with much momentum.
- Taberner vs Gerard Campana Lee (ranked 526), clay, 15 Sep 2026: lost 1-2 (7-5, 6-7, 4-6), games 17-18.
- This is Taberner's most recent completed match in the supplied record.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.60
The read
Nesterov has the higher ranking and stronger clay record, while Taberner has struggled for wins.
- Nesterov is ranked 301 vs Taberner 418.
- Nesterov's clay setEvidence record is 10-5; Taberner's is 4-6.
- Nesterov has won 53.8% of clay games and 52.2% of total points.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostPetr NesterovEstimated chance63%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
First sets on clay for these players have usually gone beyond nine games.
- Nesterov set1 average is 10.07 games; Taberner's is 9.7.
- Nesterov has three set1 tiebreaks in 15 clay matches; Taberner one in 10.
- Nesterov set1 games won average 5.13 vs 4.93 lost.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Straight-set results and averages just below the line make the under slightly more likely.
- Nesterov's clay matches average 24.27 games; Taberner's average 23.9.
- Nesterov has six 2-0 wins in 15 clay matches.
- Taberner has three 0-2 losses in 10 clay matches.
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 24.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Taberner's second sets have often finished under the line.
- Taberner set2 average is 9.2 games; Nesterov's is 9.67.
- Taberner has two set2 tiebreaks in 10 clay matches.
- Taberner set2 games won average 5.4 vs 3.8 lost.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.40
The read
Nesterov has been stronger in second sets on clay.
- Nesterov set2 clay record is 10-5; Taberner's is 6-4.
- Nesterov set2 games won average 5.47 vs 4.2 lost.
- Taberner set2 games won average 5.4 vs 3.8 lost.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonPetr NesterovEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.40
The read
Nesterov has been the stronger first-set player on clay.
- Nesterov set1 clay record is 9-6; Taberner's is 3-7.
- Nesterov averages 5.13 games won and 4.93 lost in set1 on clay.
- Taberner averages 4.6 won and 5.1 lost in set1 on clay.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostPetr NesterovEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Straight-set results are marginally more common for these players on clay.
- Nesterov has six 2-0 wins in 15 clay matches.
- Taberner has three 0-2 losses in 10 clay matches.
- Nesterov's clay sets average is 2.47, just under the 2.5 line.
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance52%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Most clay matches for these players have not featured a tiebreak.
- Nesterov has nine clay matches without a tiebreak; Taberner six.
- Nesterov's tiebreak rate is 40%; Taberner's is 40%.
- Nesterov has six 2-0 wins in 15 clay matches.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance58%

Carlos Taberner

5W 10L

5-7 7-6(5) 6-4#526Gerard Campana Lee

6-3 7-6(11)#118Henrique Rocha

6-3 3-6 6-2 6-2#38Zizou Bergs

7-5 ret.#184Jan Kumstat

6-7(5) 6-4 3-0 ret.#236Andrej Nedic

5-7 6-2 6-3#407Olle Wallin

7-6(4) 7-5#174Elmer Moller

3-6 6-3 6-3#345Marko Topo

6-2 6-0#275Juan Bautista Torres

6-4 6-1#272Genaro Alberto Olivieri

6-4 6-0 6-3#86Lorenzo Sonego

6-3 6-2#93Alexander Shevchenko

6-4 3-6 6-3#453Ivan Gakhov

6-0 6-1#505Stefan Palosi

6-2 2-6 7-6(4)#139Tomas Barrios Vera

Petr Nesterov

10W 5L

7-6(6) 3-6 6-4#627Yanaki Milev

6-7(3) 7-6(4) 6-3#559Dimitris Sakellaridis

6-1 7-6(5)#359Gabriele Piraino

7-5 6-3#315Radu Mihai Papoe

6-4 6-1#832Adrian Andreev

6-4 7-6(5)#358Sebastian Sorger

7-5 6-1#568Lorenzo Angelini

3-6 6-3 6-1#289Carl Emil Overbeck

6-3 1-6 6-4#446Eero Vasa

6-7(12) 6-2 6-2#821Karl Friberg

6-2 7-5—Ole Bredschneijder

6-4 6-2#865Lewie Lane

6-3 4-6 7-5#282Thiago Moura Monteiro

6-3 6-7(3) 7-5#405Samuele Pieri

6-1 6-1#316Enrico Dalla Valle

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

CTCarlos TabernerTaberner

Last 15

0–8

9 core stats · 1 even

Petr NesterovNesterovPN

Petr Nesterov carries the stronger recent form — Carlos Taberner's route runs through 1st serve in.

Serve · 0–4 · 1 even

1st Serve In61.7%—61.9%

1st Serve Won66.3%+1.5pp67.8%

2nd Serve Won47.8%+3.3pp51.1%

Aces / Match2.1+0.82.9

Double Faults / Match4.72.6 fewer2.1

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won39.9%+3.4pp43.3%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted38.2%+4.9pp43.1%

Break Pts Saved56.1%+2.1pp58.2%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won49.4%+2.8pp52.2%

Serve · 0–4 · 1 even

61.7%1st Serve In—61.9%

66.3%1st Serve Won+1.5pp67.8%

47.8%2nd Serve Won+3.3pp51.1%

2.1Aces / Match+0.82.9

4.7Double Faults / Match2.6 fewer2.1

Return · 0–1

39.9%Return Pts Won+3.4pp43.3%

Pressure · 0–2

38.2%Break Pts Converted+4.9pp43.1%

56.1%Break Pts Saved+2.1pp58.2%

Points · 0–1

49.4%Total Pts Won+2.8pp52.2%

Carlos Taberner

Petr Nesterov

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Petr Nesterov

Petr Nesterov

Petr Nesterov

Petr Nesterov 2-0

Result0 of 1 landed

Games2 of 3 landed

Sets1 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Carlos Taberner

Petr Nesterov

Stat Battle