Plovdiv - BulgariaFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Daniel Elahi Galan #271Colombia1Calvin Hemery #326France2

Sets 7-6 · 6-7 · 6-7Mon 21 Sept 2026, 12:05 Predictions gradedFirst RoundClay

Predictions2–625%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageDaniel Elahi Galan · 55 places

Daniel Elahi Galan

Colombia

Reached career-high No. 56 in July 2023; his current structured ranking is No. 271. No current source linked that ranking decline to an active injury.

Current ranking: #271
Peak ranking: #56 · 2023
Current age: 30
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Calvin Hemery

France

Born 28 January 1995; right-handed and 191 cm. His career-high singles ranking was No. 116 in April 2018; ITF lists clay as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #326
Peak ranking: #116 · 2018
Current age: 31
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 20 Sep 2026, 19:58 · Europe/Bucharest

Galan has the better clay numbers — 8-6 across 14 matches, 9 of 14 second sets — but Hemery is the higher-ranked player and level in first sets, so this Plovdiv first round is tighter than the ranking gap suggests.

Galan is the likelier winner in ordinary terms, yet 1.55 asks too much of him. The one quote with anything in it is Hemery at 2.3, which implies 43.5% against an assessed 46.0%.

Context

The retirement came 19 days before this fixture and occurred at the same Plovdiv tournament series, making it a relevant recent availability event. Hemery resumed competition in Seville within five days and completed a further match, so the retirement alone does not establish an ongoing restriction. No public diagnosis or current fitness update was available to explain the stoppage.
- The Faurel–Hemery match in Plovdiv ended at 7-5, 5-7, 4-2 with Hemery retiring.
- Hemery subsequently beat Gilles Arnaud Bailly in Seville on 7 September before losing to Dusan Lajovic .
ReportedSources checked 20 Sep 2026, 19:56 · Europe/BucharestFaurel–Hemery match recordnoproxy.tennisexplorer.com · 2 Sep 2026Hemery results and fixtureswww.betexplorer.com · 10 Sep 2026
Galan sits at No. 392, so beating a top-100 opponent is the outlier result in his recent clay run.
For this first round it shows Galan can beat a higher-ranked opponent over three sets on clay, which is the level Hemery, at No. 322, will need to match. The listed sample is only six matches, though, so it is one strong data point rather than a trend.
- 15 September 2026: Galan beat Facundo Diaz Acosta (ATP No. 72) 5-7, 6-2, 6-3, winning 17 games to 12.
- Diaz Acosta is the highest-ranked opponent listed among Galan's six most recent matches, which run from 4 August to 17 September 2026.
Hemery arrives as the higher-ranked player, and his opening sets have been the most competitive part of his clay record.
Galan has won 9 of his 14 second sets on clay, so the second-set half of the match is where the two records diverge most. Hemery's early sets have been even enough to keep him in this one, but the drop-off after the first set is the clearest weakness in his sample.
- Hemery's 11 non-retired clay matches in the sample run from 9 June to 10 September 2026.
- First sets: 5 wins and 6 losses, with 5.18 games won and 5.18 games lost, and three tiebreaks.
- Second sets: 4 wins and 7 losses, with 4.36 games won and 4.55 games lost, averaging 8.91 total games.
The defeat is the heaviest in Galan's six listed clay matches and arrived four days before this fixture.
It shows the floor of Galan's clay form in the sample, with only three games won across two sets. The opponent was ranked well above Galan's No. 392, so the result is less of an upset than the scoreline alone suggests, but it does sit at the end of the record.
- 17 September 2026: Galan lost 0-2 to Nikolas Sanchez-Izquierdo (ATP No. 233), winning three games to twelve.
- The match is the most recent entry in Galan's listed recent results, four days before this fixture.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Galan's better clay win rate and much stronger second-set record give him a slight overall edge.
- Galan is 8-6 on clay in the sample; Hemery is 5-6.
- Galan has won 9 of 14 second sets on clay; Hemery has won 4 of 11.
- Hemery is ranked 322, Galan 392.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDaniel Elahi GalanEstimated chance54%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' first sets average more than 9.5 games, so the over is slightly favored.
- Galan's first sets average 10.07 total games on clay; Hemery's average 10.36.
- Galan's first-set games won/lost: 4.79/5.29; Hemery's: 5.18/5.18.
- Both players have played multiple first-set tiebreaks in the sample.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The second-set averages for both players sit below 9.5 total games, favoring the under.
- Galan's second sets average 9.43 total games; Hemery's average 8.91.
- Hemery's second-set games won/lost: 4.36/4.55.
- Combined second-set average is below 9.5.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Straight-set results are frequent for both, making the under a slight favorite.
- Galan's clay matches average 23.14 total games; Hemery's average 23.91.
- 60% of their combined clay matches were straight sets.
- Both players have recent straight-set losses with low game totals.
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 23.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Galan's second-set record is clearly stronger, making him the likely winner if the match reaches a second set.
- Galan has won 9 of 14 second sets on clay; Hemery has won 4 of 11.
- Galan averages 5.07 second-set games won and 4.36 lost.
- Hemery averages 4.36 second-set games won and 4.55 lost.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostDaniel Elahi GalanEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have three-set matches often enough to keep the over live, but straight sets remain more common.
- Galan has gone to a third set in 5 of 14 clay matches; Hemery in 5 of 11.
- Combined three-set rate is 10 of 25 matches (40%).
- Galan's total sets average is 2.36; Hemery's is 2.45.
BetBugs · Total SetswonOver 2.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Hemery's slightly better first-set numbers and ranking give him a narrow edge in the opening set.
- Hemery has won 5 of 11 first sets on clay; Galan has won 6 of 14.
- Hemery averages 5.18 first-set games won and 5.18 lost; Galan averages 4.79 won and 5.29 lost.
- Hemery is ranked 322; Galan is ranked 392.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostCalvin HemeryEstimated chance52%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most of their clay matches have not featured a tiebreak, so the no side is favored.
- Galan has had no tiebreak in 10 of 14 clay matches; Hemery in 8 of 11.
- Combined tiebreak rate is 28%.
- Both players often finish sets with a break rather than a tiebreak.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance68%

Daniel Elahi Galan

8W 7L

6-0 6-3#233Nikolas Sanchez-Izquierdo

5-7 6-2 6-3#72Facundo Diaz Acosta

6-2 4-6 6-3#345Marko Topo

7-5 6-4#186Federico Agustin Gomez

6-4 6-2#375Murkel Dellien

6-2 ret.#336Carlos Sanchez Jover

6-3 6-7(5) 6-2#889Unknown Player

7-6(2) 3-6 7-5#896Max Dahlin

4-6 7-6(3) 7-6(4)#312Max Hans Rehberg

6-4 6-4#221Pavel Kotov

6-4 6-3#449Mika Petkovic

6-2 6-2#780Michiel De Krom

7-6(4) 6-2#317Gilles Arnaud Bailly

6-2 6-1#223Kimmer Coppejans

7-5 6-4#309Filippo Romano

Calvin Hemery

7W 8L

6-4 6-2#149Dusan Lajovic

6-0 ret.#317Gilles Arnaud Bailly

7-5 5-7 4-2 ret.#340Thomas Faurel

3-6 6-0 6-2#410Eric Vanshelboim

7-5 7-5#265Hynek Barton

6-3 3-6 6-3#257Mika Brunold

6-2 3-6 7-5#632Kai Wehnelt

6-4 6-3#168Federico Cina

7-6(2) 2-6 6-3#279Daniel Michalski

7-6(5) 7-6(7)#259Marvin Moeller

1-2 ret.#377Eliakim Coulibaly

6-3 6-1#534Carlo Alberto Caniato

6-2 6-2#321Anton Matusevich

3-6 6-1 3-0 ret.#381Lucio Ratti

6-7(5) 6-3 7-6(5)#240Alejandro Moro Canas

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

DGDaniel Elahi GalanGalan

Last 15

3–3

9 core stats · 3 even

Calvin HemeryHemeryCH

Dead-even recent form — the edges are in serve.

Serve · 3–0 · 2 even

1st Serve In63.2%—63.3%

1st Serve Won70.8%+1.6pp69.2%

2nd Serve Won51.4%+5.1pp46.3%

Aces / Match3.9—3.8

Double Faults / Match1.52.4 fewer3.9

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won36.5%+1.2pp37.7%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted40.3%+0.8pp41.1%

Break Pts Saved63.0%+1.8pp64.8%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won50.2%—49.7%

Serve · 3–0 · 2 even

63.2%1st Serve In—63.3%

70.8%1st Serve Won+1.6pp69.2%

51.4%2nd Serve Won+5.1pp46.3%

3.9Aces / Match—3.8

1.5Double Faults / Match2.4 fewer3.9

Return · 0–1

36.5%Return Pts Won+1.2pp37.7%

Pressure · 0–2

40.3%Break Pts Converted+0.8pp41.1%

63.0%Break Pts Saved+1.8pp64.8%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

50.2%Total Pts Won—49.7%