United StatesSan Diego - USAFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Tristan Boyer #168United States2Sebastian Gorzny #876United States0

Sets 6-4 · 7-6Thu 24 Sept 2026, 19:04 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions4–544%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageTristan Boyer · 708 places

Tristan Boyer

United States

Reached a career-high No. 106 on 8 September 2025 and is No. 168 in the supplied structured data. He is a 188 cm right-hander with a two-handed backhand, and his profile source lists hard as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #168
Peak ranking: #106 · 2025
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Sebastian Gorzny

United States

A 22-year-old American right-hander. The supplied structured feed lists him at No. 876; the ITF page's June 2026 career-high figure is older, so his exact current career high was not independently verified.

Current ranking: #876
Peak ranking: —
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Sep 2026, 16:44 · Europe/Bucharest

Freshness against workload: eighth-seeded Boyer has played once this week, while qualifier Gorzny is on his third match in three days.

Gorzny's serve and his 9-of-13 first-set record on hard give him a narrow overall edge, and the first-set price at 2.2 is the one worth taking. Boyer to win the first set at 1.6 is a price to leave alone.

Context

Gorzny had to win two qualifying matches to enter the main draw, and his three-set first round made that his third match in three days; Boyer entered directly as the eighth seed and spent two sets on court in his opener. The extra matches are the clearest asymmetry between the two players going into a round of 16 played about two days later. The limitation is the level he handled: the qualifying wins came against opponents ranked No. 722 and No. 356, and the first round was against an alternate entrant ranked No. 372.
- Gorzny is listed as a qualifier in the San Diego 2 first-round draw.
- Gorzny beat Andrew Johnson 7-5, 6-0 and Aidan Mayo 6-3, 6-4 in qualifying on 20 and .
- Gorzny beat Mitchell Krueger 4-6, 7-5, 7-5 in the first round .
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Sep 2026, 16:42 · Europe/Bucharest
Boyer, the No. 8 seed here, has kept his recent hard-court matches short, with only three of the 11 going to a deciding set.
Boyer's recent hard-court sets have mostly been brief, and none of his 11 second sets reached a tiebreak. The split cuts both ways, with four straight-set wins and four straight-set defeats, so it describes match length more than any edge in this round of 16. The 11-match sample excludes two retirements and starts on 23 July, which limits how firmly it can be applied.
- Boyer's 11 completed hard-court matches (23 July to 22 September 2026) include four 2-0 wins, four 0-2 losses, two 1-2 losses and one 2-1 win.
- His second sets average 8.36 total games with zero tiebreaks in 11 matches.
- His first sets average 10.64 games and produced four tiebreaks in 11 matches.
- The setEvidence sample excludes two retirements, so it covers completed matches only.
Boyer closed out his opener 7-6(4), 6-1, so he went through in two sets while the other first round in this fixture went to three. He carries the seeded label in the round of 16, which places the ranking expectation on him. The counterpoint is his recent record: he had lost four of his previous five matches, including a 7-6(2), 6-1 defeat to Abdullah Shelbayh on 16 September at Tiburon, and he has won six of thirteen hard-court matches in the tracked sample.
- Boyer is listed as the No. 8 seed in the San Diego 2 main draw.
- Boyer beat Spencer Johnson 7-6(4), 6-1 in the first round .
- Spencer Johnson came through qualifying to reach the main draw.
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Sep 2026, 16:42 · Europe/Bucharest
Krueger served for the match and Gorzny saved two match points, then took the last two games of the deciding set to close it 7-5. That recovery is why a player ranked No. 444 is still in the draw, and it was his first experience of a tight third set this week after two straight-set qualifying wins. The counterweight is that he lost the opening set 4-6 to an alternate entrant, so the first round was a scramble rather than a controlled win.
- Gorzny beat Mitchell Krueger 4-6, 7-5, 7-5 .
- Gorzny came back from 3-5 down in the deciding set and saved two match points.
- Krueger served for the match before losing the final two games of the decider.
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Sep 2026, 16:42 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Gorzny's better hard-court form and serve metrics give him a slight edge, despite the fatigue from a heavy schedule.
- Gorzny has won 9 of 15 hard-court matches with 53.1% of games won.
- Gorzny's serve numbers are strong: 62.5% first serves in and 69.5% first-serve points won.
- Gorzny saved two match points in his first-round win over Mitchell Krueger.
- Gorzny has played three matches in three days, including qualifying.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostSebastian GorznyEstimated chance53%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets tend to be shorter, and both players' averages point to under 9.5 games.
- Boyer's second sets average 8.36 total games, well under the line.
- Boyer has had zero tiebreaks in 11 second sets.
- Gorzny's second sets average 9.0 total games.
- Gorzny has had only 1 tiebreak in 13 second sets.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Gorzny's matches tend to be long, and Boyer's first sets often go deep, so the total could exceed 23.5 games.
- Gorzny's hard-court matches average 25.38 total games; Boyer's average 21.45.
- Gorzny's total sets average is 2.62, showing frequent three-setters.
- Boyer's first sets average 10.64 games and have produced 4 tiebreaks in 11 matches.
- Gorzny has had a tiebreak in 5 of 13 hard-court matches.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 23.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Boyer's first sets are often tight and long, pushing the total over 9.5 games.
- Boyer's first sets average 10.64 total games.
- Gorzny's first sets average 9.85 total games.
- Boyer has had 4 tiebreaks in 11 first sets.
- Gorzny has had 2 tiebreaks in 13 first sets.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance58%

Sets2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Boyer's matches tend to be shorter, and his straight-set wins suggest the match may end in two sets.
- Boyer's hard-court matches average 2.27 sets, under three.
- Boyer has won four of his last five matches in straight sets.
- Boyer's scorelines show four 2-0 wins and four 0-2 losses.
- Gorzny's recent first-round win was his only three-setter in his last five matches.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Gorzny's strong first-set record and serve numbers make him the likely early leader.
- Gorzny has won 9 of 13 first sets on hard (69%).
- Gorzny's first-set games average 5.77 won and 4.08 lost.
- Boyer has lost 6 of his 11 first sets.
- Gorzny's serve is strong, with 7.1 aces per match.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostSebastian GorznyEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Boyer's second-set record is slightly better and he may gain momentum if he loses the first.
- Boyer has won 6 of 11 second sets on hard (55%).
- Boyer's second-set games average 4.18 won and 4.18 lost.
- Gorzny has won 7 of 13 second sets (54%).
- Boyer's second sets often have fewer games, averaging 8.36 total.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonTristan BoyerEstimated chance51%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players often finish matches without a tiebreak, especially in second sets.
- Boyer has avoided tiebreaks in 7 of 11 hard-court matches.
- Gorzny has avoided tiebreaks in 8 of 13 hard-court matches.
- Boyer's second sets have had no tiebreaks in 11 matches.
- Gorzny's second sets have had only 1 tiebreak in 13 matches.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance58%

Previous match context available

Tristan Boyer

7W 8L

7-6(4) 6-1#449Spencer Johnson

7-6(2) 6-1#250Abedallah Shelbayh

6-2 6-4#338Edward Winter

6-4 3-6 6-4#184Andre Ilagan

7-6(10) 6-2#897James Watt

6-2 6-2#356Aidan Mayo

6-2 1-6 6-2#763Matthew Forbes

6-3 3-6 6-3#198Edas Butvilas

6-7(4) 4-3 ret.#22Francisco Cerundolo

7-5 6-2#122Gabriel Diallo

7-6(1) 6-3#884Lorenzo Claverie

6-4 6-4#94Jacob Fearnley

1-3 ret.#182Bernard Tomic

6-3 7-5 7-5#48Nuno Borges

7-5 6-7(4) 7-6(2) 6-3#140Pablo Llamas Ruiz

Sebastian Gorzny

9W 6L

4-6 7-5 7-5#372Mitchell Krueger

6-3 6-4#356Aidan Mayo 7-5 6-0#722Andrew Johnson

7-6(5) 1-6 7-5#218Jeff Wolf

6-2 6-4#167Nishesh Basavareddy

7-5 6-2#451Luca Staeheli

6-1 6-3 7-5#6Daniil Medvedev

3-6 6-3 3-6 6-3 7-6(9)#47Raphael Collignon

1-6 7-6(3) 6-4#323Cruz Hewitt

4-6 6-4 6-3#195Felix Balshaw

6-2 1-6 6-2#401Marc Polmans

1-6 6-3 7-6(8)#866Axel Nefve

7-6(5) 6-4#184Andre Ilagan

6-4 2-6 7-6(3)#150Borna Gojo

3-6 6-1 6-2#296Yu Hsiou Hsu

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

TBTristan BoyerBoyer

Last 15

3–6

9 core stats · 0 even

Sebastian GorznyGorznySG

Sebastian Gorzny carries the stronger recent form — Tristan Boyer's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In60.6%+1.9pp62.5%

1st Serve Won72.2%+2.7pp69.5%

2nd Serve Won51.5%+3.6pp47.9%

Aces / Match5.2+1.97.1

Double Faults / Match3.11.1 fewer4.2

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won36.3%+4.0pp40.3%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted39.0%+11.5pp50.5%

Break Pts Saved65.0%+6.0pp71.0%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won50.2%+1.0pp51.2%

Serve · 3–2

60.6%1st Serve In+1.9pp62.5%

72.2%1st Serve Won+2.7pp69.5%

51.5%2nd Serve Won+3.6pp47.9%

5.2Aces / Match+1.97.1

3.1Double Faults / Match1.1 fewer4.2

Return · 0–1

36.3%Return Pts Won+4.0pp40.3%

Pressure · 0–2

39.0%Break Pts Converted+11.5pp50.5%

65.0%Break Pts Saved+6.0pp71.0%

Points · 0–1

50.2%Total Pts Won+1.0pp51.2%