United StatesSan Diego - USAFinished

Predictions graded

Aidan Mayo #362United States0Sebastian Gorzny #484United States2

Sets 3-6 · 4-6Mon 21 Sept 2026, 19:39 Predictions gradedQ3Hard

Predictions3–633%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAidan Mayo · 122 places

Aidan Mayo

United States

Ranked No. 362 at the time of this match and listed as a right-hander, 183 cm. His tracked recent record is entirely on hard courts, 10 wins in 15 matches, the latest a 6-2 6-2 win over Jordan Lee on 20 September 2026. No reliable public profile information was available for age, career-high ranking or preferred surface.

Current ranking: #362
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Sebastian Gorzny

United States

Ranked No. 484 at the time of this match and listed as a right-hander with a one-handed backhand. His tracked recent record is entirely on hard courts, 7 wins in 15 matches, the latest a 7-5 6-0 win over Andrew Johnson on 20 September 2026. No reliable public profile information was available for age, career-high ranking or preferred surface.

Current ranking: #484
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 21 Sep 2026, 11:13 · Europe/Bucharest

Mayo has the better hard-court record in the recent samples — 10-5 in 15 completed matches, 12 of 15 first sets and 10 of 15 second sets won — but Gorzny has beaten higher-ranked opposition and pushed matches long, and Mayo lost to a player ranked 672 on 15 September.

Mayo is the likelier winner without being a clear one. At 1.65 the price asks for more than the match supports, and 2.1 on Gorzny is no better; neither is worth taking.

Context

Gorzny starts sets better than he finishes them, which matters over three sets against an opponent who has won 10 of 15 second sets.
Gorzny has taken two-thirds of his opening sets on hard but fewer than half of his second sets in the same 12-match window. Those matches produced five tiebreaks and an average of 24.4 total games, so he tends to stay close even in sets he loses. Against an opponent who has won 10 of 15 second sets on the surface, the second-set edge is the clearest place this match could separate.
- 12 completed best-of-3 hard-court matches between 21 July and 20 September 2026, one retired match excluded
- First sets: 8 wins, 4 losses; second sets: 5 wins, 7 losses
- Average total games 24.4, with five of the 12 matches featuring a tiebreak
- Four of the 12 matches ended in a 1-2 defeat
Mayo's edge is how often he finishes in two sets, not the ranking gap.
Nine of Mayo's last 15 hard-court matches ended 2-0 and two ended 0-2, so most of the sample was settled in straight sets. His matches averaged 22.2 total games and 110.3 minutes between 3 August and 20 September 2026. That pattern points to a quick finish if he wins, but the 22.2 average sits close to a 23.5-game line rather than comfortably under it.
- 15 completed best-of-3 hard-court matches, 3 August to 20 September 2026
- Scorelines: nine 2-0 wins, one 2-1 win, three 1-2 losses, two 0-2 losses
- Average total games 22.2; average duration 110.3 minutes
That 6-2 6-4 win is the standout result in Gorzny's recent window and it came on the same surface as this match. He is ranked 484, so beating a top-150 opponent without dropping a set sits well above his own standing. One match does not change the overall picture, but it shows he can see off a better-ranked opponent in two sets.
- Match date: 16 September 2026, hard court
- Gorzny won 6-2 6-4 in straight sets
- Opponent Nishesh Basavareddy was ranked 151
Mayo won the first set 6-1 and then dropped the next two 4-6, 4-6, making this the least convincing result in his recent window. It sits alongside a 6-2 6-2 win over Jordan Lee on 20 September, which keeps his 10-5 hard-court record in the sample intact. A single loss is a caveat on a quick straight-sets reading rather than evidence of anything longer-lasting.
- Match date: 15 September 2026, hard court
- Mayo lost 6-1 4-6 4-6 after winning the first set 6-1
- Opponent Ryan Seggerman was ranked 672

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Aidan Mayo

1.65fair 1.75

BetBugs 57% · Market 60.6%

−3.6ppshort

Aidan's higher ranking and stronger second-set record on hard give him a slight edge in a close match.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.65
The read
Aidan's higher ranking and stronger second-set record on hard give him a slight edge in a close match.
- Aidan Mayo is ranked 362; Sebastian Gorzny is ranked 484.
- Aidan is 10-5 on hard in his last 15 completed matches; Gorzny is 7-7.
- Aidan has won 12 of 15 first sets on hard; Gorzny has won 8 of 12.
- Aidan has won 10 of 15 second sets on hard; Gorzny has won 5 of 12.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostAidan MayoEstimated chance57%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Aidan's straight-set wins average near 20 games and he has nine 2-0 wins in 15 hard matches, making under 23.5 likely if he wins quickly.
- Aidan's hard-court matches average 22.2 total games; Gorzny's average 24.4.
- Aidan has nine 2-0 wins in 15 hard matches.
- Gorzny's best-of-3 hard matches went over 2.5 sets 58.3% of the time.
- Aidan's best-of-3 hard matches went over 2.5 sets 26.7% of the time.
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 23.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The average first-set total sits right on the line, and Gorzny's slightly longer first sets make over 9.5 a marginal call.
- Aidan's first sets average 9.47 total games on hard.
- Gorzny's first sets average 9.75 total games on hard.
- Combined first-set average is about 9.6 games.
- Gorzny has had 2 tiebreaks in first sets across 12 hard matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Aidan's longer second sets push the average to the line, making over 9.5 a slight lean.
- Aidan's second sets average 10.27 total games on hard.
- Gorzny's second sets average 8.58 total games on hard.
- Combined second-set average is about 9.5 games.
- Gorzny has won only 5 of 12 second sets on hard.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance51%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Aidan's much stronger second-set record on hard makes him the clear favorite to win the second set.
- Aidan has won 10 of 15 second sets on hard.
- Gorzny has won 5 of 12 second sets on hard.
- Aidan's second-set games won average is 5.53; Gorzny's is 4.33.
- Aidan's second-set games lost average is 4.73; Gorzny's is 4.25.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostAidan MayoEstimated chance61%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Aidan's stronger first-set record on hard gives him the edge to take the opening set.
- Aidan has won 12 of 15 first sets on hard.
- Gorzny has won 8 of 12 first sets on hard.
- Aidan's average first-set games won is 5.6; Gorzny's is 5.58.
- Aidan's first-set games lost average is 3.87; Gorzny's is 4.17.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostAidan MayoEstimated chance59%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Aidan's high rate of straight-set finishes makes under 2.5 the more likely outcome.
- Aidan has 11 straight-set results in 15 hard matches (9 wins, 2 losses).
- Gorzny has 5 straight-set results in 12 hard matches.
- Aidan's average sets per match is 2.27; Gorzny's is 2.58.
- Aidan has nine 2-0 wins in 15 hard matches.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance52%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Aidan's matches often end without a tiebreak, and his strong first-serve points won could limit tiebreak chances.
- Aidan has had a tiebreak in 3 of 15 hard matches (20%).
- Gorzny has had a tiebreak in 5 of 12 hard matches (41.7%).
- Combined tiebreak rate is 8 of 27 matches (29.6%).
- Aidan has nine 2-0 wins in 15 hard matches.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance67%

Previous match context available

Aidan Mayo

10W 5L

6-2 6-2—Jordan Lee

1-6 6-4 6-4#672Ryan Seggerman

6-3 7-6(7)#203Andres Andrade

6-3 6-4#658Luis Queiroz Miguel

6-4 6-4#313Andres Martin

6-4 2-6 6-4—Benjamin Willwerth

7-5 7-5#760Matthew Forbes

4-6 7-5 6-3#690Keshav Chopra

6-3 6-2—Joao Vitor Goncalves Ceolin

6-2 6-3#444Timo Legout

6-3 5-7 6-2#291Stefan Kozlov

6-2 6-2#214Tristan Boyer

6-4 6-3#693Ryan Dickerson

7-6(3) 7-5#135Rei Sakamoto

6-4 7-6(7)#269Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez

Sebastian Gorzny

7W 8L

7-5 6-0#718Andrew Johnson

7-6(5) 1-6 7-5#246Jeff Wolf

6-2 6-4#151Nishesh Basavareddy

7-5 6-2#456Luca Staeheli

6-1 6-3 7-5#6Daniil Medvedev

3-6 6-3 3-6 6-3 7-6(9)#47Raphael Collignon

1-6 7-6(3) 6-4#333Cruz Hewitt

4-6 6-4 6-3#193Felix Balshaw

6-2 1-6 6-2#370Marc Polmans

1-6 6-3 7-6(8)#866Axel Nefve

7-6(5) 6-4#181Andre Ilagan

6-4 2-6 7-6(3)#156Borna Gojo

3-6 6-1 6-2#297Yu Hsiou Hsu

6-1 2-0 ret.#866Maxwell Exsted

6-2 6-2#156Borna Gojo

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

AMAidan MayoMayo

Last 15

4–3

9 core stats · 2 even

Sebastian GorznyGorznySG

Aidan Mayo carries the stronger recent form — Sebastian Gorzny's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

1st Serve In58.3%+2.8pp61.1%

1st Serve Won74.4%+5.8pp68.6%

2nd Serve Won52.9%+6.4pp46.5%

Aces / Match6.0—6.1

Double Faults / Match4.10.3 fewer4.4

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won39.8%—39.5%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted38.3%+10.2pp48.5%

Break Pts Saved63.3%+3.9pp67.2%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won52.3%+2.3pp50.0%

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

58.3%1st Serve In+2.8pp61.1%

74.4%1st Serve Won+5.8pp68.6%

52.9%2nd Serve Won+6.4pp46.5%

6.0Aces / Match—6.1

4.1Double Faults / Match0.3 fewer4.4

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

39.8%Return Pts Won—39.5%

Pressure · 0–2

38.3%Break Pts Converted+10.2pp48.5%

63.3%Break Pts Saved+3.9pp67.2%

Points · 1–0

52.3%Total Pts Won+2.3pp50.0%