United StatesSan Diego - USAFinished

Predictions graded

Andrew Johnson #809United States0Sebastian Gorzny #876United States2

Sets 5-7 · 0-6Sun 20 Sept 2026, 23:00 Predictions gradedQ1Hard

Predictions4–450%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAndrew Johnson · 67 places

Andrew Johnson

United States

Johnson is a US junior player born on 23 August 2009. Official ITF profile data lists hard as his preferred surface and a junior career-high ranking of No. 12 in March 2026.

Current ranking: #809
Peak ranking: #789
Current age: 16
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 172 cm

Sebastian Gorzny

United States

A 22-year-old American right-hander. The supplied structured feed lists him at No. 876; the ITF page's June 2026 career-high figure is older, so his exact current career high was not independently verified.

Current ranking: #876
Peak ranking: —
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 20 Sep 2026, 15:55 · Europe/Bucharest

Gorzny has the ranking, serve and quality wins, but Johnson's superior recent hard-court form (70% vs 46.7%) and Gorzny's 4.7 double faults per match make the 1.30 favorite price poor value.

Back the overs on games, sets, aces, double faults and a tiebreak, and avoid Gorzny on the moneyline.

Context

Johnson, 718 in the world, has played most of his recent tennis on hard courts and clay. Gorzny, 484 in the world, plays right-handed with a one-handed backhand and has spent almost all of 2026 on hard courts.
Johnson's 66.7% win rate over the last 15 matches is built on 10 wins, but his most recent hard-court event ended with a straight-sets loss to Liam Draxl. Gorzny's 46.7% record includes a five-set win over a top-50 opponent and a straight-sets loss to Medvedev, so his results are more uneven. The overall win-loss gap favors Johnson, but neither player's recent sample points to a clear edge in this qualifying round.
- Johnson: 10-5 in last 15 matches (66.7%), 22 of 34 sets won.
- Gorzny: 7-8 in last 15 matches (46.7%), 19 of 42 sets won.
- Johnson's most recent match was a 6-4 6-2 loss to Liam Draxl on hard court on 26 August 2026.
- Gorzny's last 15 matches include a five-set win over No. 47 Collignon and a straight-sets loss to No. 6 Medvedev.
Gorzny, ATP No. 484, is the right-hander with a one-handed backhand in this match. He came through a three-set Tiburon Challenger quarter-final on 18 September, less than 48 hours before this San Diego qualifying match.
The short gap leaves little time for recovery and travel, so his serving and first-strike patterns may be harder to sustain across a best-of-three match. The claim is reported rather than confirmed, and the stored sample of three wins from five tracked matches gives no firm read on how he handles back-to-back days.
- The Tiburon quarter-final against J.J. Wolf finished 7-6(5), 1-6, 7-5 on 18 September.
- Stored recent sample: 3 wins from 5 tracked matches.
ReportedSources checked 20 Sep 2026, 15:55 · Europe/BucharestMyKhelwww.mykhel.com · 19 Sep 2026
Gorzny's one-handed backhand and 6.4 aces per match over his last 15 hard-court matches show he leans on his serve. Johnson's serve is much smaller, averaging 1.2 aces per match over the same window.
Gorzny wins 69.1% of first-serve points and saves 67.8% of break points, both better than Johnson's 63.9% and 60.2%. But Gorzny's 4.7 double faults per match and 46.2% second-serve points won give Johnson return chances. Johnson's return points won (46.1%) is higher than Gorzny's (39.1%), so the server who limits free points should control more games.
- Gorzny: 6.4 aces and 4.7 double faults per match over 15 matches tracked.
- Johnson: 1.2 aces and 3.3 double faults per match over 14 matches tracked.
- Gorzny wins 69.1% of first-serve points and saves 67.8% of break points.
- Johnson wins 46.1% of return points compared to Gorzny's 39.1%.
Both players are hard-court based, but Gorzny has been competing almost exclusively on the surface in 2026, with 13 hard-court wins and 12 losses this year. Johnson has split his 2026 season between hard courts and clay.
Gorzny's 7-8 hard-court record in the last-15 window is modest, but he has played more matches on the surface recently, including a three-set loss to Jeff Wolf on 18 September. Johnson's last hard-court match was a straight-sets loss on 26 August, so he arrives with less recent hard-court match play. The surface sample is small for both, so it is a mild context point rather than a clear edge.
- Gorzny: 7-8 on hard court in the last-15 window (15 matches tracked).
- Johnson: 7-3 on hard court in the last-15 window (10 matches tracked).
- Gorzny's most recent match was a 7-6(5) 1-6 7-5 loss to Jeff Wolf on 18 September 2026.
- Johnson's most recent hard-court match was a 6-4 6-2 loss to Liam Draxl on 26 August 2026.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Sebastian Gorzny

1.30fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 76.9%

0.0ppshort

Gorzny's serve ceiling and quality wins give him the edge, but the market price is far too short relative to a 58% model estimate.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Gorzny's higher serve ceiling (6.4 aces/match, 69.1% first-serve points) and stronger quality-of-opposition wins in the last 15 matches give him the structural edge on hard court, though Johnson's superior recent win rate keeps this close.
- Gorzny last-15 hard-court record 7-7 (46.7%) with 6.4 aces/match and 69.1% first-serve points won (15 matches tracked, all Hard).
- Johnson last-15 hard-court record 7-3 (70%) but only 1.3 aces/match and 64.2% first-serve points won (9-10 matches tracked).
- Gorzny beat No. 151 Basavareddy 6-2 6-4 and No. 47 Collignon in a 5-setter in Sept 2026; Johnson's best recent win was over No. 160 Taro Daniel.
- Gorzny ranking 484 vs Johnson 718; Gorzny career hard-court wins 33 vs Johnson 8.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonSebastian GorznyEstimated chance58%

Games1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have recent 3-set tendencies and long average match durations, making a high game total likely in a Bo3 qualifier.
- Gorzny last-15 average match duration 117.4 minutes across 15 Hard matches.
- Johnson last-15 average match duration 106.2 minutes across 14 matches.
- Gorzny's last 5 matches include three 3-setters (vs Wolf, Collignon, Hewitt) in Sept 2026.
- Johnson's last 5 tracked matches include two 3-setters (vs Taro Daniel, Spencer Johnson).
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Gorzny's serve advantage and higher quality wins give him a marginal edge to cover a small handicap, but Johnson's better recent game-win rate makes this a near coin-flip.
- Gorzny last-15 games won 49.7% (196/394) on Hard.
- Johnson last-15 games won 54.3% (172/317) overall, 55.3% on Hard.
- Gorzny's higher ace rate (6.4/match) gives him a slight edge in service games.
- Johnson's superior recent win rate (70% on Hard) keeps this close.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonSebastian Gorzny -1.5Estimated chance50%

Sets2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Gorzny's stronger first-serve numbers and career first-set conversion rate suggest he is more likely to take the opener, but Johnson's recent hard-court form keeps confidence low.
- Gorzny career first-set win conversion 83% vs Johnson 100% (small samples, career baseline).
- Gorzny's last-15 first-serve points won 69.1% vs Johnson 64.2% on Hard.
- Johnson lost the opening set in 3 of his last 5 tracked matches (Aug-Sept 2026).
- Gorzny opened with a 7-6(5) first set vs Jeff Wolf on 18 Sept 2026.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonSebastian GorznyEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players show a pattern of extended matches in their recent windows, supporting a 3-set outcome, though Johnson's higher set-win rate slightly caps the probability.
- Gorzny's last 5 tracked matches: 3 went to a deciding set (Sept 2026).
- Johnson's last 5 tracked matches: 2 went to a deciding set (Aug-Sept 2026).
- Gorzny's last-15 sets won 45.2% (19/42) indicates frequent split sets.
- Johnson's last-15 sets won 64.7% (22/34) but with several 3-set wins.
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Gorzny's stronger break-point saving and recent second-set results give him a slight edge, but Johnson's better second-serve points won keeps confidence low.
- Gorzny's last-15 second-serve points won 46.2% vs Johnson 53.8% on Hard.
- Gorzny's last-15 break points saved 67.8% (97/143) vs Johnson 60.9% (39/64).
- Johnson lost the second set in 2 of his last 5 tracked matches (Aug-Sept 2026).
- Gorzny won the second set in 3 of his last 5 tracked matches (Sept 2026).
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonSebastian GorznyEstimated chance54%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Gorzny's significantly higher ace rate (6.4/match) drives the over, even with Johnson's low ace contribution, in a match likely to last multiple sets.
- Gorzny last-15 aces per match 6.4 (96 aces in 15 Hard matches).
- Johnson last-15 aces per match 1.2 (17 aces in 14 matches).
- Gorzny career 221 aces in 64 matches (3.5/match) vs Johnson 25 in 31 (0.8/match).
- Gorzny's one-handed backhand and right-handed serve profile supports ace production on hard courts.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Combined double-fault rates from both players' recent windows (4.7 + 3.3 per match) make the over likely across a multi-set match.
- Gorzny last-15 double faults per match 4.7 (70 in 15 Hard matches).
- Johnson last-15 double faults per match 3.3 (46 in 14 matches).
- Gorzny career 178 double faults in 64 matches (2.8/match).
- Johnson career 78 double faults in 31 matches (2.5/match).
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Gorzny's recent matches frequently feature tiebreaks, and the competitive nature of this qualifier suggests at least one tiebreak is likely.
- Gorzny's last 5 tracked matches include 3 tiebreaks (vs Wolf, Hewitt, Nefve) in Aug-Sept 2026.
- Johnson's last 5 tracked matches include 1 tiebreak (vs Tyler Zink, March 2026).
- Gorzny career tiebreak win pct 52% vs Johnson 71%.
- Both players have close recent scorelines with multiple 7-6 sets.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance58%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Gorzny is priced as a heavy favorite despite a losing recent hard-court record and high double-fault rate.

Andrew Johnson

10W 5L

6-4 6-2#205Liam Draxl

2-6 6-2 6-4#160Taro Daniel

6-1 7-5#582Kaylan Bigun

1-6 6-3 6-4#451Spencer Johnson

6-2 6-1—Benjamin O'Connell

6-4 6-2—Lucca Liu

6-4 6-4—Timofey Stepanov

6-4 6-2#678Andreja Petrovic

6-2 6-3—Gavin Goode

6-2 4-6 7-5#151Nishesh Basavareddy

6-2 7-6(7)#829Roberto Cid Subervi

7-6(4) 6-4#437Garrett Johns

6-4 0-6 6-4#889Ronit Karki

7-6(5) 7-6(2)#323Tyler Zink

6-2 6-0—Aaron Bailey

Sebastian Gorzny

7W 8L

7-6(5) 1-6 7-5#246Jeff Wolf

6-2 6-4#151Nishesh Basavareddy

7-5 6-2#456Luca Staeheli

6-1 6-3 7-5#6Daniil Medvedev

3-6 6-3 3-6 6-3 7-6(9)#47Raphael Collignon

1-6 7-6(3) 6-4#333Cruz Hewitt

4-6 6-4 6-3#193Felix Balshaw

6-2 1-6 6-2#370Marc Polmans

1-6 6-3 7-6(8)#866Axel Nefve

7-6(5) 6-4#181Andre Ilagan

6-4 2-6 7-6(3)#156Borna Gojo

3-6 6-1 6-2#297Yu Hsiou Hsu

6-1 2-0 ret.#866Maxwell Exsted

6-2 6-2#156Borna Gojo

5-7 7-5 6-3#541Gavin Young

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

AJAndrew JohnsonJohnson

Last 15

5–4

9 core stats · 0 even

Sebastian GorznyGorznySG

Andrew Johnson carries the stronger recent form — Sebastian Gorzny's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In14/15 · 15/1563.0%+2.1pp60.9%

1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/1563.9%+5.2pp69.1%

2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/1550.8%+4.6pp46.2%

Aces / Match14/15 · 15/151.2+5.26.4

Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/153.31.4 fewer4.7

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/1546.1%+7.0pp39.1%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/1543.8%+1.8pp45.6%

Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/1560.2%+7.6pp67.8%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/1552.6%+2.7pp49.9%

Serve · 3–2

63.0%1st Serve In14/15 · 15/15+2.1pp60.9%

63.9%1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+5.2pp69.1%

50.8%2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+4.6pp46.2%

1.2Aces / Match14/15 · 15/15+5.26.4

3.3Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/151.4 fewer4.7

Return · 1–0

46.1%Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+7.0pp39.1%

Pressure · 0–2

43.8%Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/15+1.8pp45.6%

60.2%Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/15+7.6pp67.8%

Points · 1–0

52.6%Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+2.7pp49.9%

Andrew Johnson

Sebastian Gorzny

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Sebastian Gorzny

Result1 of 1 landed

Games1 of 2 landed

Sets2 of 3 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Markets to Avoid

Sebastian Gorzny @ 1.30

Andrew Johnson

Sebastian Gorzny

Stat Battle