United StatesSan Diego - USAFinished

Predictions graded

Aidan Mayo #625United States2Jordan LeeUnited States0

Sets 6-2 · 6-2Mon 21 Sept 2026, 00:00 Predictions gradedQ1Hard

Predictions7–188%

Edges4–0100%

Player Profiles

Aidan Mayo

United States

Reached a career-high No. 269 on 20 May 2024 and is No. 625 in the supplied structured data. He won the Drummondville Challenger in November 2024.

Current ranking: #625
Peak ranking: #269 · 2024
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Jordan Lee

United States

Limited reliable public profile information found. Use the structured form and event data as the main player context.

Current ranking: —
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: —
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 20 Sep 2026, 15:54 · Europe/Bucharest

Mayo is a justified heavy favourite over Lee on hard courts, with a clear serve, form, and ranking edge that makes the 1.22 match-winner price fair rather than valuable.

The best angles are Under 21.5 games, Under 2.5 sets, and Mayo -3.5, while the 2-0 set-betting line is a trap given Mayo's habit of dropping sets.

Context

Mayo, 27, is ranked No. 362 and has played almost all of his recent tennis on hard courts, with a 19-15 hard-court record in 2026. Lee is unranked and has played only three hard-court matches in the last 15-match window.
Mayo's 66.7% hard-court win rate over 15 tracked matches is built on consistent week-to-week results, including a five-match win streak in late August. Lee's 1-2 hard-court record in the same window is a small sample, but it offers little evidence he can match Mayo's current level. The gap in recent hard-court form favors Mayo, though qualifying matches can be unpredictable.
- Mayo is 10-5 on hard courts in his last 15 matches, a 66.7% win rate.
- Lee is 1-2 on hard courts in his last 15 matches, a 33.3% win rate.
- Mayo won five straight hard-court matches from Aug. 25 to Aug. 29, 2026.
- Lee's most recent hard-court win was Aug. 24, 2026, over Mark Lajal.
Mayo's serve has been a stable part of his game, with 6.1 aces per match and a 57.9% first-serve rate across 15 hard-court matches. Lee has played only three hard-court matches in the same window, so his serve statistics carry a small-sample caveat.
Mayo's first-serve points won (74.5%) and break points saved (63.1%) are both stronger than Lee's (67.1% and 56%). That gives Mayo a more reliable hold game on hard courts. Lee's numbers come from just three matches, so they may not fully reflect his level, but the available evidence points to Mayo having the more secure serve.
- Mayo: 74.5% first-serve points won, 63.1% break points saved on hard courts (15 matches).
- Lee: 67.1% first-serve points won, 56% break points saved on hard courts (3 matches).
- Mayo averages 6.1 aces per hard-court match; Lee averages 3.3.
- Lee's hard-court serve sample covers only three matches.
Lee is unranked and has played most of his recent tennis on clay, including seven of his last 10 tracked matches. His 2026 hard-court record is 1-2, and his career hard-court win total is one match.
Lee's recent match log is dominated by clay, so his hard-court form is based on a very small sample. That uncertainty cuts both ways: he could be more comfortable than the numbers suggest, or he could be underprepared for a hard-court qualifier. Either way, his recent surface history is a genuine unknown in this matchup.
- Lee has played 7 of his last 10 tracked matches on clay.
- Lee's 2026 hard-court record is 1-2.
- Lee's most recent hard-court match was a 6-3 4-6 6-1 loss to Daniel Rincon on Aug. 26, 2026.
- Lee's career hard-court win total is one match.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Aidan Mayo

1.22fair 1.22

BetBugs 82% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

Mayo's serve structure and hard-court form window are far superior, so the quoted price is fair rather than generous.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Aidan Mayo

1.30fair 1.35

BetBugs 74% · Market 76.9%

0.0ppshort

Mayo's hard-court set-win and first-serve numbers are far stronger, but the quoted price already prices him above the model estimate, so this is a fair-to-slightly-negative hold rather than a value edge.

Set 2 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Aidan Mayo

1.30fair 1.41

BetBugs 71% · Market 76.9%

0.0ppshort

Mayo's game-level and break-point resilience on hard courts support the second-set lean, but the price is shorter than the model estimate so the edge is not positive.

Set BettingwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Aidan Mayo 2-0

1.65fair 1.59

BetBugs 55% · Market 60.6%

0.0ppshort

Mayo's dominant hard-court set and game numbers make a straight-sets scoreline the most likely outcome, and the offered price is slightly generous versus the model estimate.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.22
The read
Mayo holds a clear serve/return structural edge and a far stronger recent hard-court form window, so the match-winner leans heavily to the home player.
- Mayo last-15 (all Hard, 15 matches tracked): 10-5 record (66.7%), 53.8% games won, 52.3% total points won
- Mayo serve structure: 74.5% first-serve points won, 63.1% break points saved, 6.1 aces/match vs Lee's 63.8% / 50.8% / 2.3
- Lee last-15: 4-6 (40%), 47.1% games won, 48.1% total points won; Hard subset only 1-2 with 43.8% games
- Ranking baseline: Mayo ATP #362 with 111 career hard wins; Lee unranked with 1 career hard win
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAidan MayoEstimated chance82%

Games2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Mayo's superior game-winning rate and serve resilience on hard courts should produce a margin of at least four games, though Lee's competitiveness in some matches adds risk.
- Mayo last-15 Hard: 53.8% games won vs Lee's 43.8% on Hard
- Mayo's 74.5% first-serve points won and 63.1% break points saved support game dominance
- Lee's 35% return points won on Hard limits his ability to break back
- Mayo's 2026 hard record 19-15 vs Lee's 1-2
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonAidan Mayo -3.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Mayo's ability to win efficiently against weaker hard-court opposition and Lee's low games-won rate point to a shorter match, though Lee's occasional three-setter adds variance.
- Mayo last-15 average match duration 116.8 minutes with 53.8% games won, indicating moderate-length contests
- Lee last-15 average duration 97.5 minutes (8 matches tracked), with 47.1% games won
- Mayo's recent straight-set wins (6-3 6-4, 6-4 6-4, 6-2 6-2) show he can close quickly vs lower-ranked opponents
- Lee's Hard games-won rate of 43.8% suggests limited resistance to extend sets
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 21.5Estimated chance58%

Sets4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Mayo's stronger opening-set serve numbers and set-win rate on hard courts give him the early edge, though Lee's occasional fast starts keep confidence moderate.
- Mayo last-15 Hard: 65.7% sets won (23/35) with 74.5% first-serve points won
- Lee last-15 Hard: 37.5% sets won (3/8), 42% second-serve points won
- Mayo career firstSetWinConversion 86% vs Lee's small-sample 100% (10 matches)
- Lee's most recent match (2026-08-26) opened with a 3-6 first set loss to Rincon
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonAidan MayoEstimated chance74%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Mayo's superior game-level and break-point resilience on hard courts should carry the second set, with Lee's weak hard-court return profile limiting his counterplay.
- Mayo last-15 Hard: 53.8% games won, 63.1% break points saved across 15 matches
- Lee last-15 Hard: 43.8% games won, 35% return points won
- Mayo's 2026 hard record 19-15 vs Lee's 1-2 hard record in 2026
- Lee has dropped the second set in 4 of his last 6 completed matches
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonAidan MayoEstimated chance71%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Mayo's straight-set efficiency and Lee's low set-win rate favor a two-set finish, with the main risk being Lee's occasional ability to steal a set as in his Lajal win.
- Mayo last-15: 23 sets won of 35 (65.7%) with 10-5 record, frequently winning in straight sets
- Lee last-15: 9 sets won of 23 (39.1%), losing 6 of 10 matches
- Mayo's 2026 hard record 19-15 vs Lee's 1-2 hard record
- Lee's last three hard matches include two straight-set losses
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.65
The read
Mayo's dominant set-level and game-level hard-court numbers make a 2-0 scoreline the most likely outcome, though Lee's occasional set-stealing ability keeps this below high confidence.
- Mayo last-15 Hard: 65.7% sets won, 53.8% games won across 15 matches
- Lee last-15 Hard: 37.5% sets won, 43.8% games won across only 3 matches
- Mayo's recent straight-set wins over Queiroz Miguel, Martin, and Boyer show 2-0 capability
- Lee has lost 6 of his last 10 matches, often in straight sets
BetBugs · Set BettingwonAidan Mayo 2-0Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players show double-fault rates that, when combined, exceed the line, though match length and pressure situations could reduce the total.
- Mayo last-15: 4.2 double faults per match (63 in 15 matches tracked)
- Lee last-15: 3.6 double faults per match (29 in 8 matches tracked)
- Combined recent average suggests roughly 7.8 double faults per match
- Mayo's 57.9% first-serve in rate and Lee's 58.8% indicate moderate serve consistency
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined ace rates of both players point to a total near the line, with Mayo's serve volume being the primary driver, but Lee's low ace output creates uncertainty.
- Mayo last-15: 6.1 aces per match (91 in 15 matches tracked)
- Lee last-15 Hard: 3.3 aces per match (10 in 3 matches tracked)
- Combined recent average suggests roughly 9.4 aces per match
- Mayo's 57.9% first-serve in rate with 74.5% first-serve points won indicates aggressive serving
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance52%

Previous match context available

Aidan Mayo

10W 5L

1-6 6-4 6-4#672Ryan Seggerman

6-3 7-6(7)#203Andres Andrade

6-3 6-4#658Luis Queiroz Miguel

6-4 6-4#313Andres Martin

6-4 2-6 6-4—Benjamin Willwerth

7-5 7-5#760Matthew Forbes

4-6 7-5 6-3#690Keshav Chopra

6-3 6-2—Joao Vitor Goncalves Ceolin

6-2 6-3#444Timo Legout

6-3 5-7 6-2#291Stefan Kozlov

6-2 6-2#214Tristan Boyer

6-4 6-3#693Ryan Dickerson

7-6(3) 7-5#135Rei Sakamoto

6-4 7-6(7)#269Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez

6-7(6) 6-3 7-5#525Christian Langmo

Jordan Lee

4W 6L

6-3 4-6 6-1#253Daniel Rincon

4-6 6-3 6-3#140Mark Lajal

7-5 6-1#215Moez Echargui

6-4 6-2#246Jeff Wolf

6-2 6-0—Jon Gamble

7-5 7-5#495Miguel Tobon

6-0 6-4—Matisse Farzam

6-4 6-1—Matthew Thomson

7-5 7-5—Ilgiz Valiev

2-6 6-3 10-8—Ilyas Milad Fahim

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

AMAidan MayoMayo

Last 15 · 15 vs 10

5–3

9 core stats · 1 even

Jordan LeeLeeJL

Aidan Mayo carries the stronger recent form — Jordan Lee's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In15/15 · 8/1057.9%+0.9pp58.8%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 8/1074.5%+10.7pp63.8%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 8/1054.1%+9.3pp44.8%

Aces / Match15/15 · 8/106.1+3.82.3

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 8/104.20.6 fewer3.6

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won15/15 · 8/1039.3%—39.5%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 8/1038.6%+5.8pp44.4%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 8/1063.1%+12.3pp50.8%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won15/15 · 8/1052.3%+4.2pp48.1%

Serve · 3–2

57.9%1st Serve In15/15 · 8/10+0.9pp58.8%

74.5%1st Serve Won15/15 · 8/10+10.7pp63.8%

54.1%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 8/10+9.3pp44.8%

6.1Aces / Match15/15 · 8/10+3.82.3

4.2Double Faults / Match15/15 · 8/100.6 fewer3.6

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

39.3%Return Pts Won15/15 · 8/10—39.5%

Pressure · 1–1

38.6%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 8/10+5.8pp44.4%

63.1%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 8/10+12.3pp50.8%

Points · 1–0

52.3%Total Pts Won15/15 · 8/10+4.2pp48.1%