FranceRennes - FranceFinished

Predictions graded

Anton Matusevich #357United Kingdom1Tristan Schoolkate #187Australia2

Sets 7-6 · 4-6 · 4-6Thu 17 Sept 2026, 09:00 Predictions gradedSecond RoundI.hard

Predictions3–350%

Edges1–150%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageTristan Schoolkate · 170 places

Anton Matusevich

United Kingdom

British right-hander, born 30 May 2001. Reliable sources found confirm his height and playing hand, but did not establish a dated career-high ranking or stated preferred surface.

Current ranking: #357
Peak ranking: #342
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Tristan Schoolkate

Australia

Career-high No. 95 on 15 September 2025. He has won Challenger titles on hard and grass, but no reliable source located explicitly states a preferred surface or current decline trajectory.

Current ranking: #187
Peak ranking: #95 · 2025
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 16 Sep 2026, 15:15 · Europe/Bucharest

Matusevich's superior recent form and return game give him the edge over Schoolkate, with value on him to win the match and first set.

Expect a competitive match with over 21.5 total games and over 12.5 aces.

Context

Matusevich, ranked 321, has been in excellent form across surfaces, winning 11 of his last 15 matches. Schoolkate, ranked 165, has a solid 9-6 record in the same span but has shown more volatility.
Matusevich's higher win rate and better points-won percentage (53.2% vs 51.0%) suggest he may have a slight edge in baseline exchanges. However, Schoolkate's stronger serve metrics, including 9 aces per match, could keep him competitive if he serves well.
- Matusevich last15 record: 11-4 (73.3%), total points won 53.2%
- Schoolkate last15 record: 9-6 (60%), total points won 51.0%
- Schoolkate averages 9 aces per match vs Matusevich's 4.3
Schoolkate retired against Soon-Woo Kwon on August 4, 2026, after losing the first set 3-6 and trailing 1-5 in the second.
Since that retirement, Schoolkate has played several three-set matches, including a four-set loss to Flavio Cobolli. His average match duration over the last 15 is 128.3 minutes, indicating heavy physical load, which could be a factor in a tight second-round match.
- Retired vs Soon-Woo Kwon on 2026-08-04 (score 3-6 5-1 ret.)
- Average match duration last 15: 128.3 minutes
- Played four-set match vs Flavio Cobolli on 2026-09-03
Matusevich has been effective on return, winning 41% of return points in his last 15 matches.
Schoolkate's first serve percentage is only 56.2%, and he double-faults 3.3 times per match. If Matusevich can attack the second serve, he may create break chances, but Schoolkate's high ace count shows he can still win free points.
- Matusevich return points won: 41%
- Schoolkate return points won: 36.4%
- Schoolkate first serve in: 56.2%, double faults per match: 3.3

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.30
The read
Matusevich's stronger recent form, return game, and break-point efficiency give him a clear edge in this indoor hard matchup.
- Matusevich last 15 overall record 11-4 (73.3%) vs Schoolkate 9-6 (60%)
- Matusevich last 15 total points won 53.2% vs Schoolkate 51.0%
- Matusevich last 15 return points won 41.0% vs Schoolkate 36.4%
- Matusevich last 15 break points converted 51.5% vs Schoolkate 35.7%
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostAnton MatusevichEstimated chance58%

Games1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent matches average above 21.5 total games, and Schoolkate's longer matches suggest a competitive contest.
- Matusevich last 15 average games per match 22.0 (330 games / 15 matches)
- Schoolkate last 15 average games per match 28.3 (424 games / 15 matches)
- Schoolkate last 15 average duration 128.3 minutes vs Matusevich 99.2 minutes
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent first sets average over 9.5 games, indicating a competitive opening set.
- Matusevich last 15 first set average games 9.7 (146 games / 15 matches)
- Schoolkate last 15 first set average games 10.1 (151 games / 15 matches)
- Both players have strong first-set win conversion rates (84% and 88%)
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance60%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Matusevich's superior return game and consistent recent form make him slightly more likely to take the opening set.
- Matusevich career first set win conversion 84% vs Schoolkate 88%
- Matusevich last 15 first serve points won 74.2% vs Schoolkate 75.0%
- Matusevich last 15 return points won 41.0% vs Schoolkate 36.4%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonAnton MatusevichEstimated chance57%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Schoolkate's high ace rate combined with Matusevich's moderate ace count pushes the combined total above 12.5.
- Schoolkate last 15 aces per match 9.0 vs Matusevich 4.3
- Schoolkate last 15 hard court aces per match 8.3
- Matusevich last 15 hard court aces per match 4.9
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 12.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined double fault rates suggest a moderate chance of exceeding 5.5 total double faults.
- Schoolkate last 15 double faults per match 3.3 vs Matusevich 2.6
- Schoolkate last 15 hard court double faults per match 3.0
- Matusevich last 15 hard court double faults per match 2.9
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance52%

Previous match context available

Anton Matusevich

11W 4L

6-0 6-3—Mickael Kaouk

6-7(3) 6-3 6-3#260Michele Ribecai

6-3 3-6 6-2#436Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine

6-2 2-6 6-2#302Oliver Tarvet

6-4 6-3—Mark Ceban

6-1 6-3#174Elmer Moller

6-4 7-5#399Yuta Shimizu

6-4 7-6(11)#302Oliver Tarvet

6-3 6-4#450Emile Hudd

6-3 3-6 6-3#705Sebastian Dominko

7-6(4) 6-3#789Conor Gannon

6-7(5) 6-4 6-3#312Max Hans Rehberg

7-5 6-4#293Alvaro Guillen Meza

6-0 6-3#271Cezar Cretu

6-3 6-2#456Luca Staeheli

Tristan Schoolkate

9W 6L

6-1 6-3#400Marek Gengel

3-6 6-3 6-4 7-5#7Flavio Cobolli

7-6(4) 3-6 6-3 6-4#151Nishesh Basavareddy

4-6 7-5 7-6(7)#205Liam Draxl

6-4 7-6(6)#675Seongchan Hong

6-3 6-2—Jack Secord

6-4 3-6 7-5#136Stefanos Sakellaridis

7-5 6-4#720Nicolas Arseneault

6-4 2-6 6-1#181Andre Ilagan

2-6 6-2 6-4#468Quinn Vandecasteele

3-6 6-4 7-6(4)#168Federico Cina

3-6 5-1 ret.#157Soon-Woo Kwon

7-5 4-6 7-6(4)#330Murphy Cassone

4-6 7-6(7) 7-5#63Arthur Gea

6-3 6-7(3) 6-3#241August Holmgren

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

AMAnton MatusevichMatusevich

Last 15

6–2

9 core stats · 1 even

Tristan SchoolkateSchoolkateTS

Anton Matusevich carries the stronger recent form — Tristan Schoolkate's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In58.7%+2.5pp56.2%

1st Serve Won74.2%+0.8pp75.0%

2nd Serve Won51.2%—51.9%

Aces / Match4.3+4.79.0

Double Faults / Match2.60.7 fewer3.3

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won41.0%+4.6pp36.4%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted51.5%+15.8pp35.7%

Break Pts Saved64.3%+1.9pp62.4%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won53.2%+2.2pp51.0%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

58.7%1st Serve In+2.5pp56.2%

74.2%1st Serve Won+0.8pp75.0%

51.2%2nd Serve Won—51.9%

4.3Aces / Match+4.79.0

2.6Double Faults / Match0.7 fewer3.3

Return · 1–0

41.0%Return Pts Won+4.6pp36.4%

Pressure · 2–0

51.5%Break Pts Converted+15.8pp35.7%

64.3%Break Pts Saved+1.9pp62.4%

Points · 1–0

53.2%Total Pts Won+2.2pp51.0%