FranceRennes - FranceFinished

Predictions graded

Mickael Kaouk #962France0Anton Matusevich #357United Kingdom2

Sets 0-6 · 3-6Tue 15 Sept 2026, 19:45 Predictions gradedFirst RoundI.hard

Predictions4–357%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAnton Matusevich · 605 places

Mickael Kaouk

France

Kaouk, 18, is a French right-hander listed at 175 cm. His listed career-high singles ranking is No. 957.

Current ranking: #962
Peak ranking: #957
Current age: 18
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Anton Matusevich

United Kingdom

British right-hander, born 30 May 2001. Reliable sources found confirm his height and playing hand, but did not establish a dated career-high ranking or stated preferred surface.

Current ranking: #357
Peak ranking: #342
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Sep 2026, 04:08 · Europe/Bucharest

Anton Matusevich is the clear favorite over Mickael Kaouk, backed by superior ranking, recent form, and a head-to-head win on indoor hard.

His strong serve should drive aces over 6.5, and the moneyline at 1.45 offers a slight edge. The match could be competitive, but Matusevich is the best bet.

Context

Matusevich, ranked 327, is a right-hander with a two-handed backhand and has been in strong form across surfaces.
Matusevich's 73.3% win rate in his last 15 matches is backed by a 71.4% sets-won rate and a 56.5% games-won rate. Kaouk's 60% win rate is solid but his last match was a straight-set loss to Patrick Zahraj, and his recent wins have come against lower-ranked opponents. This suggests Matusevich enters with more consistent recent results, though Kaouk's overall numbers are not far behind.
- Matusevich last 15: 11-4 record, 71.4% sets won, 56.5% games won.
- Kaouk last 15: 9-6 record, 60.6% sets won, 54.4% games won.
- Kaouk lost his most recent match 6-2 6-4 to Patrick Zahraj (ranked 416).
Matusevich's serve is a key weapon, with 1791 career aces and a 73% career first-serve win rate.
In the last 15 matches, Matusevich has a clear edge in first-serve effectiveness, winning 74.2% of points behind his first serve compared to Kaouk's 64.1%. Matusevich also averages 4.4 aces per match versus Kaouk's 1.0. On indoor hard, where serving is often amplified, this could give Matusevich more free points and pressure on Kaouk's service games.
- Matusevich last 15: 4.4 aces per match, 74.2% first-serve points won.
- Kaouk last 15: 1.0 aces per match, 64.1% first-serve points won.
- Match surface is indoor hard.
The two players met once before, in the first round of a Challenger event on indoor hard.
Matusevich won that match in three sets, taking the first and third sets comfortably. While one match is a small sample, it shows Matusevich has succeeded against Kaouk on this surface. Kaouk will need to adjust from that loss, but the previous result gives Matusevich a psychological and tactical reference point.
- H2H: Matusevich defeated Kaouk 6-3 3-6 6-2 on 2026-03-04 (indoor hard).
- Matusevich won 74% of first-serve points in that match; Kaouk won 73%.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.45
The read
Matusevich has superior recent form, ranking, and a direct H2H win on this surface, making him the clear favorite.
- Matusevich last15 overall record 11-4 (73.3%), Kaouk 9-6 (60%)
- Matusevich career win% 62.5% vs Kaouk 52.3%
- H2H: Matusevich won 6-3 3-6 6-2 on I.hard in March 2026
- Matusevich ranking 327, Kaouk unranked
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAnton MatusevichEstimated chance72%

Games0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The match is likely to be competitive with at least one tight set, pushing total games over 21.5.
- Kaouk last15 average 19.9 games per match, Matusevich 22.2
- H2H had 26 games
- Both players have competitive recent matches with multiple close sets
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The first set is likely to be competitive, with a good chance of exceeding 9.5 games.
- Kaouk last15 average set1 games 9.3, Matusevich 9.7
- H2H first set was 6-3 (9 games)
- Both players have had close opening sets recently
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Matusevich's stronger serve and recent form give him an edge in the opening set.
- Matusevich first set win conversion 84% career, Kaouk 85%
- Matusevich last15 first serve points won 74.2% vs Kaouk 64.1%
- Matusevich won first set in H2H 6-3
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonAnton MatusevichEstimated chance65%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Matusevich's strong serve should produce enough aces to push the total over 6.5.
- Matusevich last15 aces per match 4.4, Kaouk 1.0
- Matusevich career aces 1791 in 368 matches (4.9 per match)
- H2H had 8 total aces
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players average around 3 double faults per match, making over 5.5 likely but not certain.
- Kaouk last15 double faults per match 3.3, Matusevich 2.7
- Combined average 6.0 double faults per match
- Kaouk's lower first serve percentage (65%) may lead to more double faults
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance52%

Head-to-Head

0-1 (1 meetings)

L6-3 3-6 6-2Mickael Kaouk—vAnton Matusevich#327Mar 4, 2026

1 total meetings

Mickael Kaouk

9W 6L

6-2 6-4#416Patrick Zahraj

6-4 6-2—Nicolas Ifi

6-4 7-6(7)#783Matt Ponchet

7-6(5) 6-2—Lars Goran Verwerft

6-3 6-4#386Laurent Lokoli

6-2 6-0—Justas Trainauskas

6-2 6-3#278Marvin Moeller

7-5 3-6 7-6(3)#342Dali Blanch

6-7(8) 7-5 6-3#653Menelaos Efstathiou

6-0 6-0—Filiberto Fumagalli

6-0 6-1—Arthur Bonnaud

6-3 2-0 ret.—Yoshka Sborowsky

6-7(4) 6-4 6-2#292Matteo Martineau

6-1 6-4#429Maxime Chazal

6-2 6-2—Thomas Coppi

Anton Matusevich

11W 4L

6-7(3) 6-3 6-3#264Michele Ribecai

6-3 3-6 6-2#433Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine

6-2 2-6 6-2#308Oliver Tarvet

6-4 6-3—Mark Ceban

6-1 6-3#170Elmer Moller

6-4 7-5#396Yuta Shimizu

6-4 7-6(11)#308Oliver Tarvet

6-3 6-4#449Emile Hudd

6-3 3-6 6-3#900Sebastian Dominko

7-6(4) 6-3#826Conor Gannon

6-7(5) 6-4 6-3#320Max Hans Rehberg

7-5 6-4#285Alvaro Guillen Meza

6-0 6-3#230Cezar Cretu

6-3 6-2#446Luca Staeheli

6-2 6-4—Nikola Djosic

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MKMickael KaoukKaouk

Last 15

2–6

9 core stats · 1 even

Anton MatusevichMatusevichAM

Anton Matusevich carries the stronger recent form — Mickael Kaouk's route runs through serve.

Serve · 1–4

1st Serve In65.0%+6.9pp58.1%

1st Serve Won64.1%+10.1pp74.2%

2nd Serve Won46.5%+5.5pp52.0%

Aces / Match1.0+3.44.4

Double Faults / Match3.30.6 fewer2.7

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won46.5%+6.4pp40.1%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted46.9%+4.1pp51.0%

Break Pts Saved54.3%+10.0pp64.3%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won52.2%—52.9%

Serve · 1–4

65.0%1st Serve In+6.9pp58.1%

64.1%1st Serve Won+10.1pp74.2%

46.5%2nd Serve Won+5.5pp52.0%

1.0Aces / Match+3.44.4

3.3Double Faults / Match0.6 fewer2.7

Return · 1–0

46.5%Return Pts Won+6.4pp40.1%

Pressure · 0–2

46.9%Break Pts Converted+4.1pp51.0%

54.3%Break Pts Saved+10.0pp64.3%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

52.2%Total Pts Won—52.9%