ItalyBiella - ItalyFinished

Predictions graded

Alex Barrena #261Argentina2Samuele Pieri #386Italy0

Sets 6-1 · 6-3Thu 17 Sept 2026, 12:00 Predictions gradedSecond RoundClay

Predictions0–60%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAlex Barrena · 125 places

Alex Barrena

Argentina

Argentine right-hander whose highest singles ranking is No. 167, reached in March 2026. The ITF lists clay as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #261
Peak ranking: #167 · 2026
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Samuele Pieri

Italy

Italian player, born February 28, 2002. Public player databases list a career-best No. 398 in June 2026; no current injury or absence signal was found in the requested searches.

Current ranking: #386
Peak ranking: #398 · 2026
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 16 Sep 2026, 03:19 · Europe/Bucharest

Samuele Pieri's superior clay form, serve, and return stats make him the likely winner over Alex Barrena.

Back Pieri at 2.00 odds for a 12-point value edge. Expect a competitive match with over 21.5 total games and a possible tiebreak.

Context

Pieri, 22, is ranked 405 and has built a 36-25 clay record in 2026.
Pieri's recent clay numbers are stronger across the board: he wins 56.3% of games and 54.1% of total points, compared to Barrena's 49.5% and 49.1%. Pieri also saves break points at a higher rate (64.3% vs 55.4%) and wins more first-serve points (70.1% vs 60.9%). Barrena's lower ranking (216) does not offset this gap in recent performance.
- Pieri's last 15 clay matches: 10-5 record, 56.3% games won, 54.1% total points won.
- Barrena's last 15 clay matches: 9-6 record, 49.5% games won, 49.1% total points won.
- Pieri's break point save rate is 64.3% vs Barrena's 55.4%.
- Pieri's first-serve points won is 70.1% vs Barrena's 60.9%.
Barrena, 24, is ranked 216 and has played 15 matches in the last 15 weeks.
Both players competed on September 15 and won in three sets, so neither has a clear rest advantage. Barrena's match lasted 2 hours 20 minutes, while Pieri's lasted 2 hours 35 minutes, making the physical toll comparable. This reduces the chance that fatigue will be a decisive factor.
- Barrena beat Maxime Chazal 6-4 1-6 6-3 on September 15.
- Pieri beat Gabriele Piraino 5-7 6-2 7-5 on September 15.
- Both matches were on clay and went to three sets.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.00
The read
Pieri's stronger recent clay form and serve/return edge make him the likely winner.
- Pieri last 15 on clay: 10-5 record, 63.2% sets won, 56.3% games won
- Barrena last 15 on clay: 9-6 record, 50% sets won, 49.5% games won
- Pieri return points won 44.7% vs Barrena 40.8% in last 15
- Pieri first serve points won 70.1% vs Barrena 60.9% in last 15
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostSamuele PieriEstimated chance62%

Games0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Competitive matchup with both players showing three-set tendencies supports a higher total games line.
- Barrena last 15 average 21.1 games per match
- Pieri last 15 average 22.4 games per match
- Both players have multiple three-set matches in recent form
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players often play close first sets, making over 9.5 games plausible.
- Barrena recent set 1 games: 6-4, 2-6, 6-7, 6-2, 3-6, 6-7, 3-6, 5-1, 6-2, 6-4, 4-6, 7-6, 3-6, 3-6, 2-6
- Pieri recent set 1 games: 5-7, 6-4, 4-6, 6-1, 6-1, 6-2, 6-2, 6-1, 6-3, 7-5, 6-3, 3-6, 6-2, 6-3, 6-4
- Combined average set 1 games around 9.5
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Pieri's superior recent set win rate and serve effectiveness give him an edge in set 1.
- Pieri first set win conversion career 86%, Barrena 86%
- Pieri last 15 sets won 63.2% vs Barrena 50%
- Pieri first serve points won 70.1% in last 15
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostSamuele PieriEstimated chance58%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have moderate double fault rates, making under 3.5 slightly more likely.
- Barrena averages 1.7 double faults per match in last 15
- Pieri averages 1.8 double faults per match in last 15
- Combined average 3.5 double faults per match
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 3.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Pieri's higher ace rate pushes the combined total close to the over line.
- Pieri averages 3.1 aces per match in last 15
- Barrena averages 1.3 aces per match in last 15
- Combined average 4.4 aces per match
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 4.5Estimated chance55%

Prediction history

Samuele Pieri has struggled to convert projected wins

Samuele Pieri has fulfilled 2 of 7 recent win projections. Expected fulfilment was 4.3 based on average probability, indicating underperformance. All five misses were losses, with no draws or subject wins.

Recent evidence for Samuele Pieri7 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

26 Jul·Bonn - Germany

—Moritz Kudernatsch0-2#398Samuele Pieri

BetBugsSamuele Pieri to win·62%

Matched

26 Jul 2026

Bonn - Germany

—Moritz Kudernatsch0-2#398Samuele Pieri

Samuele Pieri to win

62%probability

Samuele Pieri won

Matched

19 Jul·Zug - Switzerland

#401Samuele Pieri1-2#369Petr Nesterov

BetBugsSamuele Pieri to win·58%

Missed

19 Jul 2026

Zug - Switzerland

#401Samuele Pieri1-2#369Petr Nesterov

Samuele Pieri to win

58%probability

Petr Nesterov won

Missed

12 Jul·Cordenons - Italy

#406Samuele Pieri0-2#732Giorgio Tabacco

BetBugsSamuele Pieri to win·72%

Missed

12 Jul 2026

Cordenons - Italy

#406Samuele Pieri0-2#732Giorgio Tabacco

Samuele Pieri to win

72%probability

Giorgio Tabacco won

Missed

6 Jul·Braunschweig - Germany

#406Samuele Pieri1-2#484Rudolf Molleker

BetBugsSamuele Pieri to win·58%

Missed

6 Jul 2026

Braunschweig - Germany

#406Samuele Pieri1-2#484Rudolf Molleker

Samuele Pieri to win

58%probability

Rudolf Molleker won

Missed

9 Jun·Cattolica - Italy

#398Samuele Pieri0-2#327Oriol Roca Batalla

BetBugsSamuele Pieri to win·55%

Missed

9 Jun 2026

Cattolica - Italy

#398Samuele Pieri0-2#327Oriol Roca Batalla

Samuele Pieri to win

55%probability

Oriol Roca Batalla won

Missed

Previous match context available

Alex Barrena

9W 6L

6-4 1-6 6-3#433Maxime Chazal 6-2 6-3#220Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva 6-7(2) 7-5 7-5#173Zdenek Kolar

6-2 6-7(3) 6-3#738Nico Hipfl

3-6 6-2 6-3#356Ognjen Milic

7-6(3) 6-3#317Gilles Arnaud Bailly

6-3 6-2#209Maxim Mrva

5-1 ret.#180Lukas Neumayer

6-2 6-3#320Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi

6-4 6-4#311Georgii Kravchenko

6-4 6-1#238Henri Squire

7-6(4) 6-2#198Timofey Skatov

6-3 6-2#74Jan Choinski

3-6 6-3 6-3#397Johan Nikles

6-2 6-3#415Niels Visker

Samuele Pieri

10W 5L

5-7 6-2 7-5#359Gabriele Piraino

4-6 6-3 6-4#705Sebastian Dominko

4-6 6-2 6-4#358Sebastian Sorger

6-1 6-1#652Andrea De Marchi

6-1 7-5—Nicolo Toffanin

6-2 6-1#871Theodore Dean

2-6 6-2 6-3—Jonas Gundacker

6-1 6-0—Miha Vetrih

3-6 6-3 6-4#837Federico Zeballos

5-7 7-5 6-1#526Gerard Campana Lee

6-3 0-6 6-4#280Pedro Boscardin Dias

6-3 6-3#186Federico Agustin Gomez

6-2 6-3#317Gilles Arnaud Bailly

6-3 2-6 6-2#507Giuseppe La Vela

6-4 6-1—Moritz Kudernatsch

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

ABAlex BarrenaBarrena

Last 15

2–6

9 core stats · 1 even

Samuele PieriPieriSP

Samuele Pieri carries the stronger recent form — Alex Barrena's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

1st Serve In15/15 · 14/1563.0%+4.6pp58.4%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/1560.9%+9.2pp70.1%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/1550.6%+7.2pp57.8%

Aces / Match15/15 · 14/151.3+1.83.1

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/151.7—1.8

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/1540.8%+3.9pp44.7%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/1547.3%+5.9pp41.4%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/1555.4%+8.9pp64.3%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/1549.1%+5.0pp54.1%

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

63.0%1st Serve In15/15 · 14/15+4.6pp58.4%

60.9%1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+9.2pp70.1%

50.6%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+7.2pp57.8%

1.3Aces / Match15/15 · 14/15+1.83.1

1.7Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/15—1.8

Return · 0–1

40.8%Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+3.9pp44.7%

Pressure · 1–1

47.3%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/15+5.9pp41.4%

55.4%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/15+8.9pp64.3%

Points · 0–1

49.1%Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+5.0pp54.1%